Changes in the Location of the Median Voter in theU.S. House of Representatives, 1963–1996

We consider the degree of ideological polarizationwithin and between the parties in the U.S. House ofRepresentatives for the period 1963–1996, using theGroseclose, Levitt and Snyder (1996) adjustment method for ADA and ACU scores to ensure over timecomparability of roll call voting data. We focusespecially on the median House member, since webelieve that change in the median offers a bettermeasure of the impact of the change in party controlthan does changes in the mean roll-call votingscore. Our data analysis makes two general points. First andforemost, when we looked at the change in the locationof the House median voter, we found a dramatic changeafter the Republicans gained a majority in the House in1994. After the Republicans became a majority in theHouse, the ADA median in the House in 1995–1996 was at24, far closer to the Republican median of 4 than tothe Democratic median of 83. The shift in medianfrom 1993–1994 to 1994–1995 involved a change of over 25points in one election – far and away the greatestsingle shift in ideology of the modern era. Incontrast, the mean changed only 1 point overthis same period. Second, for the three decades weinvestigated, we found three historical epochs vis a visthe relative locations of the ADA (or ACU) floormedian and the ADA (or ACU) floor mean in the U.S.House of Representatives – two inflection points in1983 and 1994 which are related to trends in regionalrealignment.     

Assimilation and contrast effects in voter projections of party locations: Evidence from Norway, France, and the USA

In the standard Downsian model, voters are assumed to choose parties based on the extent of ideological proximity between the voter's own position and that of the party. Yet it is also well known that there are rationalization and projection effects such that voters tend to misestimate the policy platforms of candidates or parties to which they are sympathetic by overstating the correspondence between those positions and the voter's own preferences (see, e.g., Markus & Converse 1979; Granberg & Brent 1980; Granberg & Holmberg 1988; Merrill & Grofman 1999). Here we follow insights in the psychological literature on persuasion (Sherif & Hovland 1961; Parducci & Marshall 1962) by distinguishing between assimilation and contrast effects. Assimilation refers to shortening the perceived ideological distance between oneself and parties one favors; contrast refers to exaggerating the distance to parties for which one does not intend to vote. Using survey data on voter self–placements and party placements on ideological scales for the seven major Norwegian parties, five major French parties, and two major American parties we show that both assimilation and contrast effects are present in each country to a considerable degree.We also investigate the possible effects of randomness in party placement and scale interpretation – effects that can easily be confounded with assimilation but not so easily with contrast.     

Why noncompetitive states are so important for understanding the outcomes of competitive elections: the Electoral College 1868–2016

Brams and Kilgour (Public Choice 170:99–113, 2017) begin their recent essay on the Electoral College (EC) by pointing out the obvious, but nonetheless regularly neglected fact that noncompetitive states may have a decisive impact on EC outcomes and shape the electoral strategies of the candidates in the competitive states, especially if there is asymmetry in the partisan balances in the non-competitive states. Their contribution is to offer combinatorics insights into the implications of such asymmetries in the form of three new indicators: Winningness, Vulnerability, and Fragility. They then explore the magnitude and effects of these three measures for the presidential elections of 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. The major contribution of this note is to extend their analyses of these measures to an additional 34 elections: every election in the modern two-party post-Civil War era from 1868 to 2016. We find the Winningness measure to predict very well over the entire set of 38 presidential elections. Inspired by their work, we also offer a new and simpler metric for partisan asymmetries in noncompetitive states and show how it can predict the expected closeness of EC outcomes as well or better than the more complex combinatorics measures they propose.     

A taxonomy of runoff methods

We look at ways of classifying runoff methods in terms of characteristics such as number of rounds, rules used to determine which candidates advance to the next round, and rules which determine the final winner. We also compare runoffs and so-called instant runoffs such as the alternative vote.     

论合法性与政治协商

本文主要的意图是根据对卢梭、罗尔斯和西耶斯等理论的分析,探讨合法性基础的建构问题。作者认为,作为合法性基础的不是每个人的确定性意志,而是他们决定意志的过程,即政治协商的过程。虽然协商理论仅仅提供了一种不完善的、尽可能合理地做出决策的方式,但是,这种过程使理性结果的实现更加可能。     

Fatal hemorrhage from a periumbilical wound: Stabbing or hemorrhage from a caput medusae?

Varices are the main clinical manifestation of portal hypertension, and their bleeding is the predominant cause of mortality from this condition. Periumbilical varices are known as “caput medusae.” Reports of their bleeding are rare, with only three fatal cases described in the literature. The antemortem diagnosis is relatively simple, while the postmortem diagnosis is more complex. This paper is the first report of fatal hemorrhage from a caput medusae for which the diagnosis was made postmortem, thanks to a complete diagnostic process including scene and circumstances, medical history, and autopsy with detailed histology. The circumstantial analysis showed the presence of a large amount of blood at the scene, blood which originated from a small abdominal wound; an analysis of the subject's clinical data reported that he was affected by portal hypertension. The autopsy revealed some dilated and convoluted veins in the subcutaneous tissue of the umbilical region; a fistula between these veins and the abdominal wound was detected. The histological study confirmed the presence of periumbilical varices, one of them ruptured and connected with the overlying skin. The cause of death was attributed to a massive hemorrhage generated by a periumbilical varix in a patient affected by portal hypertension.     

3D forensic facial approximation: Implementation protocol in a forensic activity

The primary objective of this paper is to report on the successful implementation of forensic facial approximation in a real case in the forensic context. A three‐dimensional (3D) facial approximation protocol of the skull was performed with free software, applying techniques in a virtual environment that have already been consolidated in the literature. The skull was scanned with the photogrammetry technique, the digital replica was imported in the Blender software (Blender Foundation, Amsterdam) and individualized model sketches of the face were traced with the MakeHuman software (MakeHuman Org) according to the anthropological profile of the victim. The face created was imported in Blender, where it was adapted, modeled, and sculpted on the 3D skull and its soft tissue markers, using an American open‐source application of the technique in the digital environment. The face created in a virtual environment was recognized and legal identification procedures were started, resulting in the more agile delivery of the disappeared body to its next of kin. It is therefore concluded that facial approximation may not be a primary method of human identification, but it can be satisfactorily applied in the forensic field as an individual recognition resource. It has great value in narrowing the search, reducing the number of alleged victims, and leading to identification tests, therefore significantly reducing the number of genetic DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) tests—which are considered costly for the State or Federation—and consequently reducing the waiting time before delivery of the body to its family.     

Primary intimal sarcoma of the pulmonary artery misdiagnosed as pulmonary thromboembolism: A case confirmed at medicolegal autopsy

Misdiagnosed PAS confirmed at medicolegal autopsy Pulmonary artery sarcoma (PAS) is a rare disease and usually indistinguishable from acute or chronic thromboembolic disease of the pulmonary arteries. We present a case of pulmonary artery sarcoma in a 54‐year‐old male, who was clinically misdiagnosed as pulmonary thromboembolism. The patient died of disease; however, the actual diagnosis of PAS was made after a medicolegal autopsy. PAS can be a diagnostic challenge for both clinicians and pathologists. In an autopsy case with a clinical suspicion of pulmonary thromboembolism, if there is an abnormal gross appearance in the pulmonary artery, the forensic pathologist should have a high index of suspicion of PAS, which should be ruled out by a histopathologic examination.     

Intentional overdose of glargine insulin: Determination of the parent compound in postmortem blood by LC-HRMS

Insulin glargine is a long-acting insulin analog that is converted after enzymatic cleavage of the arginine pair of the β-chain into its main metabolite M1 (21^A-Gly-insulin), which is responsible for the hypoglycemic activity. In all the overdose cases described in the literature, only M1 concentrations have been reported, whereas insulin glargine was always absent or below the limit of quantitation. In this study, we present a case of suicide of a young nurse by injection of insulin glargine in which the parent molecule was found at a toxic concentration in blood. The determination and the discrimination of insulin glargine from human insulin and other synthetic analogs in the blood specimen were performed by liquid chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (Waters XEVO G2-XS QToF) and extraction after precipitation in the presence of bovine insulin (internal standard), with a mixture of acetonitrile/methanol +1% formic acid followed by purification on solid phase extraction cartridges C18. Glargine insulin tested highly positive in the blood with a concentration of 1.06 mg/L. Due to the difficulty in obtaining a M1 pure standard, the metabolite could not be dosed. This unique presence of the parent molecule, reported for the first time, can be explained by inter-individual variability in the rate of conversion to metabolite. Intravenous injection versus subcutaneous injection can also explain the presence of insulin glargine. Finally, the dose injected may have been so high that saturation of the proteolytic enzymes responsible for conversion to M1 should have occurred.