Democratization in Conflict Research: How Conceptualization Affects Operationalization and Testing Outcomes

Using the debate over democratization and conflict, we demonstrate how the connection between conceptualization and operationalization can play a decisive role in testing falsifiable hypotheses. We discuss seven different operationalizations of regime change based on three different conceptualizations of democracy. Although we find high correlations between different measures of democracy, when they are used to capture regime change, the correlations drop precipitously. In multivariate estimations of the effect of regime change on a range of conflict variables, we generate widely disparate results, providing no consistent support that democratization affects conflict. We thus demonstrate that decisions about conceptualization and subsequent operationalization have decisive impact on the inference we produce. In contrast, our controls for the effect of institutionalized democracy consistently show a negative relationship between joint democracy and conflict. Finally, autocratic regime change seems to be more robustly correlated with a range of conflict behaviors than heretofore recognized in this literature.     

What determines earmarked funding to international development organizations? Evidence from the new multi-bi aid data

Earmarked aid to international organizations has quadrupled over the last two decades and now represents almost 20% of total aid. This paper introduces a new dataset on earmarked aid, which alternatively has been referred to as multi-bi, restricted, non-core or trust fund aid. The data make it possible to track the rise of the new aid channel over an extended time period and in greater detail regarding, e.g., the implementing multilateral organizations. The data include more than 100,000 earmarked projects of 23 OECD donors to 290 multilateral institutions from 1990 to 2012. We graphically illustrate the patterns in earmarked aid for all actors: donor governments and their aid-providing agencies, multilateral organizations, and recipient countries. We also highlight promising research questions that can be analyzed with the multi-bi data. In a first empirical application of the data, we analyze four suggested donor motives for earmarked aid at the donor-recipient level. Contrary to donor claims, we find that earmarked aid and bilateral aid target the same recipients. We also find evidence that some donors use earmarked aid to bypass recipient countries with weak governance. Overall, our explorative analysis suggests that earmarked aid serves many purposes and that donors use it in different ways. This calls for more fine-grained research on the reasons and implications for earmarked aid.     

Organisierte Zivilgesellschaft im EU-Verfassungsprozess: Partner des Regierens oder Konstituent politischer Ordnung?

A new role has been ascribed to civil society within the EU-constitutional process. It is not only regarded as a partner in governance but also as a constituent of the emerging EU-polity. Civil society appears in this process primarily as the structure of voice that is articulated in relation to EU-governance and that claims to represent European citizens. The article proposes an analytical framework and a methodology of how to analyze civil society in its role as constituency. The research agenda is linked to the intermediary and the representative function of organised civil society as a transmission belt of legitimatory discourse on the EU. In order to reconstruct how potential interests, identities and normative ideas relating to the legitimacy of a EU constitutional order are contested within national politics, our research draws on a survey of German civil society organisations in three sectors: a) consumer interest organisations, b) churches and religious organisations, and c) women and gender equality groups.     

Wie lässt sich Demokratie am besten messen? Zum Forumsbeitrag von Thomas Müller und Susanne Pickel

Ohne Zusammenfassung * Die vier Autor(inn)en arbeiten in einem gemeinsamen Forschungsprojekt des NCCR Democracy (vom Schweizerischen Nationalfonds finanziertes National Centre of Competence in Research: Challenges to Democracy in the 21^st Century) und des WZB an einem „Demokratiebarometer“ für die 30 OECD-Staaten, das die Ignoranz der 0-Varianz bei Polity und Freedom House aufkl?ren will.

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Differentiation of blue ballpoint pen inks by laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry and high-performance thin-layer chromatography

The differentiation of inks on a questioned document can highlight a fraudulent insertion and is usually carried out by optical comparison and thin-layer chromatography (TLC). Laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) may also be used for the analysis of dyes from ink. This analytical technique was compared with a standard method of high-performance TLC (HPTLC) according to their capacity to differentiate blue ballpoint inks. Ink entries on paper from 31 blue ballpoint pens have been analyzed and their dye ink formulations compared. The pens were classified into 26 classes by LDI-MS against 18 for HPTLC. LDI-MS proved to be a more powerful method for differentiating ink formulations because it provides information about dye structures (molecular weights) and relative quantification of dye classes (peak areas). Sample preparation was minimal and analysis time was short in contrast to the more complex extraction, application, and development steps of the HPTLC method. However, only basic dyes and pigments were identified using positive mode LDI-MS, while HPTLC did yield additional information about acid dyes.     

Why The Axioms and Theorems of Arithmetic are not Legal Norms

Ronald Dworkin has long criticized legal positivists for theirefforts to distinguish between legal and non-legal standardsof conduct that are incumbent on people. Recently, Dworkin hasbroached this criticism in his hostile account of the debatesbetween Incorporationist Legal Positivists and Exclusive LegalPositivists. Specifically, he has maintained that Incorporationistscannot avoid the unpalatable conclusion that the axioms andtheorems of arithmetic are legal norms. This article shows whysuch a conclusion is indeed avoidable and why Dworkin's criticismis therefore wide of the mark.     

The finnish centre party: Profile of a ‘Hinge group’

Recently, the functioning of Austrian Social Partnership has been increasingly called into question. The strains on the system, often traced to the internationalisation of the economy and the related shift to neoliberally inspired policies, might make Austria prone to disorganising pressures. However, case studies infields of social and economic policy‐making crucial for international competitiveness (working time, vocational training, industrial policy) suggest that many elements of interest intermediation, concertation, and conflict resolution have remained constant over the last 30 years, entailing both elements of concertation and of conflict as well as different trends across policy areas.     

LONG-TERM FOLLOW-UP OF A COURT-BASED INTERVENTION FOR DIVORCING PARENTS

This study investigated whether participation in an educational program for divorcing parents is associated with a lower incidence of relitigating divorce-related decisions over time. A systematic review of court records indicated that couples who attended this program (n = 159) in central Illinois were just as likely as those in the control group (n = 43) to relitigate over a 6-year period. Furthermore, county-wide rates of relitigation increased from 2 years before to 3 years after the program's introduction. However, reports obtained from participating families suggest that the program may serve an important function for families in which there is a high risk of triangulating children into postdivorce conflict.