Sense and sensitivity in pooled analysis of political data

Abstract. In recent years, pooled time–series cross–section data analysis has been advocated as a method for overcoming the 'small N, many variables' problem in comparative political economy in order to derive valid inferences from statistical comparisons of nation states. Moreover, the approach seemed promising in handling both comparisons among different countries and developments over time. However, due to the complex structure of pooled data sets, this approach cannot simply be regarded as a convenient way of increasing the number of cases and getting more significant results. This paper exemplifies the fallacies of pooled data sets by reanalyzing a study done by Paul Boreham and Hugh Compston on the effect of labour participation in policy formation on unemployment. Reanalysis of their data set controlling for the panel structure of the data by using 'panel corrected standard errors' and a more detailed analysis of the bivariate relationships show that the causal effect is less clear–cut than suggested and becomes considerably weaker during the 1980s. These dynamics are simply averaged out by pooled analysis. This leads to the conclusion that the currently most popular approach to pooled time–series cross–section analysis in comparative political economy — the constant–coefficients model — neither solves the small–N problem nor draws attention to dynamics over time. Thus, the article concludes that a sensitive interpretation of the findings obtained by advanced statistical methodology in comparative political economy is still dependent on small–N comparative analysis.     

Corrigendum - Sense and sensitivity in pooled analysis of political data

European Journal of Political Research -     

Developmental trends in television coviewing of parent-child dyads

In this study, long-term trends in joint parent-child television viewing are taken as prototype for developmental changes of the parent-child relationship during adolescence. To describe and compare trends of television coviewing in different configurations of family members, trajectories of daily television viewing, tmeasured with Nielsen-type people meters over a time period of three years, were analyzed using time series methods. The findings show the transferability of hypotheses about general developments in relations between the generations on coviewing behavior of adolescents aged 14–16 with their parents to predict differential declines in the four parent-child dyads.Received Ph.D. from Free University of Berlin in 1976. Research interests include the role of the media in child development and family relations.Received Ph.D. from Free University of Berlin in 1984. Research interests include time series analysis, television behavior, and personality.Received M.S. from Technical University of Berlin, in 1987. Research interests include role of television in political socialization.     

The Moore thesis: what's left after 1989?

This article reconsiders the work of Barrington Moore and his critics on the historical emergence of democracy in the light of post-communist democratization. What are we to make of a region which violates Moore's dictum – “No bourgeoisie, no democracy”? Using the tools of comparative historical analysis, it makes sense of how democracy emerged in the region by developing a theory which both explains why this was possible and what social actors were essential to this outcome. With attention to patterns of social development in the region, the politics of elite alliance in the final phase of communism, the strength of civil society at extrication, and the role of the international system, it explains differences in regime outcomes across the region.     

State Crime,the Prophetic Voice and Public Criminology Activism

State crimes are, by far, the most destructive of all crimes. The use and threat to use nuclear weapons, the aerial bombardment of civilians, wars of aggression, torture, the failure to mitigate global warming and adapt to climate change ecocide, along with myriad other state-corporate crimes, fill the world with death and devastation, misery and want. This article argues that criminologists have a responsibility to act as public criminologists by speaking in the “prophetic voice” concerning these crimes and their victims, and then acting in the political arena in an attempt to control and prevent these harms. The paper briefly describes three approaches to engaging in what Belknap (Criminology 53:1–23, 2015) calls “criminology activism” on these issues. The first approach is for criminologists to counter the cultures of denial and normalization that usually cover state crimes. The second involves contesting the global corporate capitalist system and the power of the American capitalist state in an effort to achieve specific progressive policy reforms and structural changes in the global political economy. Finally, criminologists can work to enhance the democratization of the international political community and strengthen the ability of specific international legal institutions to control state crimes.     

Conceptuality and Non-conceptuality in Yogācāra Sources

This paper investigates the Yogācāra notions of “conceptuality”, represented by terms such as vikalpa, on the one hand, and of “non-conceptuality” on the other. The examination of the process of thinking as well as its absence has played a central role in the history of Yogācāra thought. The explanations of this process provided by Yogācāra thinkers in works such as the Yogācārabhūmi, the Mahāyānasūtrāla?kāra and the Mahāyānasa?graha appear to be mainly concerned with the contents and the components of thoughts, categorizing them into different classes. These lists are far more than arbitrary collections. Instead they are meant to represent exhaustive summaries of a person’s conceptual experience. The first part of the paper focusses on conceptuality, exploring (mostly Abhidharmic) definitions of the relevant terms and ideas. The second part is mainly an investigation of the question which parts of the Buddhist path to liberation were considered to involve conceptual activity and which were described as non-conceptual.     

When and where do elections matter? A global test of the democratization by elections hypothesis, 1900–2010

Successive multiparty elections in sub-Saharan Africa are associated with incremental democratization. Yet tests in other regions are less than encouraging. Non-significant findings on Latin America and post-communist Eurasia, as well as conceptual criticism regarding the theory’s application in the contemporary Middle East, suggest that this may be a case of African exceptionalism. This article moves these debates forward by posing a comprehensive, global set of tests on the democratizing effect of elections. We seek to establish the scope conditions of the argument geographically, temporally, and substantively. Although we find a correlation between reiterated multiparty elections and improvements in the liberal-democratic components of electoral regimes globally since 1900, the relationship is only substantial in the period since the onset of the third wave of democracy. Experiences with iterated multiparty elections have substantive importance for democratization in sub-Saharan Africa, the post-communist region, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. For the Middle East and North Africa, the relationship is weaker and less robust. Finally, the results suggest that reiterated sequences of multiparty elections are associated with improvements to liberal and deliberative components of democracy more so than egalitarian components.