Optimal team and individual decision rules in uncertain dichotomous situations

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the optimalteam decision rules in uncertain, binary (dichotomous) choice situations. We show that the Relative (Receiver) Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve plays a pivotal role in characterizing these rules. Specifically, the problem of finding the optimal aggregation rule involves finding a set ofcoupled operating points on the individual ROCs. Introducing the concept of a team ROC curve, we extend the method of characterizing decision capabilities of an individual decisionmaker (DM) to a team of DMs. Given the operating points of the individual DMs on their ROC curves, we show that the best aggregation rule is a likelihood ratio test. When the individual opinions are conditionally independent, the aggregation rule is a weighted majority rule, but with different asymmetric weights for the yes and no decisions. We show that the widely studied weighted majority rule with symmetric weights is a special case of the asymmetric weighted majority rule, wherein the competence level of each DM corresponds to the intersection of the main diagonal and the DM's ROC curve. Finally, we demonstrate that the performance of the team can be improved by jointly optimizing the aggregation rule and the individual decision rules, the latter possibly requiring a shift from the isolated (non-team) optimal operating point of each DM.Research supported by NSF grant #IRI-8902755 and ONR contract #N0014-90-J-1753.     

Stewardship of health security: The challenges of applying the One Health approach

Experience with the control of epidemics, notably the 2004 outbreaks of avian influenza, has demonstrated that a “One Health approach,” that recognizes that human, animal, and environmental health are interdependent, is the most effective way of dealing with threats from emerging infectious diseases (EID). However, introducing and applying a One Health approach is challenging for many countries. One of the key challenges relates to stewardship. The evolution of the strategies and policies used to introduce and adopt the One Health approach in the detection and response to EID over the period 2005 to 2017 is described at global level and in country case studies of Thailand and Indonesia. Both countries experienced significant outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza from 2004 and have sought to adopt the One Health approach in their response strategies. The challenges for stewardship of health systems in introducing a One Health approach are described, and key lessons identified in regard to national level agency coordination, engagement of the broader civil society outside government, and developing a reliable, credible, and impartial decision‐making process. The concept of stewardship provides valuable insights for policymakers on how to incorporate a One Health approach into their EID response systems.     

The United States‐China copyright dispute: A two‐level games analysis

United States media and computer software industries long have alleged they lose billions of dollars to copyright piracy in China. Negotiations between the countries have had little effect. This article uses two‐level games theory to explore why the United States is reluctant to impose sanctions, and why China is unwilling to take action against the pirates even at the risk of trade sanctions. Negotiations are examined at the usaional level and at the domestic level in both countries. At the usaional level, a two‐player sequential model of the game is presented. At the domestic level, the heterogeneity of interest groups in the United States, and the different agendas of central and provincial authorities in China are discussed. Based on this analysis, the article proposes, (1) a more flexible time‐frame for negotiations with foreign trading partners, (2) greater reliance on multilateral frameworks than on bilateral trade sanctions and (3) American efforts to distribute the gains from better copyright protection to local enterprises in foreign countries to create domestic pressure groups favoring stronger copyright regimes.