冷战后美国对华战略转变的根本逻辑与手段——兼论奥巴马政府的对华政策

奥巴马政府对华战略的变化,更多的是冷战后美国对华战略转变的一个延续。冷战后,美国不断开辟新领域,试图将中国塑造为敌人或对手,但屡战屡败,导致多届美国政府对华战略在任期内和问题领域内的双重起伏。美国对华战略转变背后的根本逻辑是美国民族主义化的爱国主义,其具体手段是安全化理论所论述的安全化/非安全化。它曾经并将继续主导美国的对华战略转变。在两国共建21世纪积极合作全面的中美关系和应对共同挑战的伙伴关系的同时,这一逻辑和手段可能导致双方在三个领域内的潜在争端:双边关系领域内的气候变化与能源—环境、中国制造产品等议题;多边关系中中美关系涉及的第三方因素;中美在国际体系规范领域的斗争。     

改革开放以来党的执政理念与时俱进的历史考察

全心全意为人民谋福利,是中国共产党全部执政理念的基础.领导人民发展生产力,创造财富,促进社会全面进步;保证最广大人民群众能够获得看得见的利益,满足人民群众不断增长的物质文化需要,共享社会劳动成果,是实现党的执政理念的两个基本要求.自20世纪70年代末以来,随着我国社会生产力和人民群众物质文化需要的不断增长,党的执政理念也在实践中不断升华,与时俱进.这里,谨对改革开放以来邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛三位领导人的执政理念及继承与发展的内在联系做一个简要的梳理和思考.     

Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia

Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Milo?evi? (2000) and Boris Tadi? (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semi-presidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the application of prospect theory in political science.     

A tale of two railways and the Reuter family

Between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the influence of Baron Julius de Reuter and his famous agency, Reuters, was evident in his and his family's investments around the world. By looking at the histories of the Reuter Concession and the Greek Railway Concession, this work aims to offer insight into the international politics of certain governments and the value of news as a commodity at the time. The Reuter Concession illustrates part of the British-Russian conflict over Persia while the Greek Railway Concession demonstrates British policy toward the Ottoman Empire and Greco-Ottoman relations.     

PCR检测鸡毒霉形体和鸡滑液囊霉形体的研究

根据禽霉形体 16SrRNA的基因序列设计、合成了 1对引物 ,用这对引物对鸡毒霉形体 (Mycoplasmagallisep ticum ,MG)和鸡滑液囊霉形体 (Mycoplasmasynoviae ,MS)菌株DNA进行PCR扩增 ,得到了与预期大小相一致的约 5 80bp的PCR产物 ,而这对引物对其他禽病病原DNA或RNA模板的扩增结果为阴性。PCR方法对MG和MS的最小检出量分别为 2 pg和 3pg。应用已建立的PCR方法检测MG人工感染样品和临床样品 ,从人工感染样品中均检测到MG ,临床样品的MG阳性检出率为 10 .2 5 % ,高于常规分离培养的阳性检出率     

A cross-sectional study on expression of anger and factors associated with criminal recidivism in prisoners with prior offences

Objective: The purpose of this study is to determine demographical characteristics leading to crime recidivism and define anger levels and anger expression manners for those who re-commit crime.Method: All the literate inmates in zmit Closed Penitentiary were included in this cross-sectional study. The prisoners were asked to respond to State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory. Their socio-demographic data were collected and a questionnaire was given to them to determine their state of imprisonment, sentence, nature of the crime in which they were involved, their criminal history, their relationship with inmates and prison staff and substance and alcohol use.Results: Of the 438 prisoners, 302 (68.9%) responded to the questionnaires. Crime recidivism among the study cohort was observed to be 37.4%.Mean trait anger, anger out and anger in scores were significantly higher in prisoners with criminal recidivism in comparison with those who did not have prior criminal records. However, mean anger control scores for prisoners with or without criminal recidivism were similar. Unemployment, education level completed at secondary school or below, having committed a crime under the influence of alcohol or narcotics, having been involved in prison fights, having resisted police officers, caused damage in their vicinity when angry and violent crimes were all found to be possible causes of criminal recidivism. Educational level completed at secondary school or below, getting into fights with other prisoners, unemployment and resisting police officers were determined to be the strongest indicators to predict criminal recidivism when all variables were considered according to a logistic regression model.Conclusion: It can be proposed that those who have problems with officials or hostile towards others constitute a risk group for criminal recidivism. If prisoners with criminal recidivism can be helped to identify and control their anger, their risk of committing a new crime can be minimised.     

黛巢瞧跏械膋步中项公式。Fibonacci polynomia

;闫萍0005000200100005;000500020006000115-20两类风险过程总理赔量分布的平移伽玛近似花春荣,刘永陈常熟理工学院数学系,黄埭中学 江苏常熟　215500 ,江苏苏州　215143复合Poisson分布;;平移伽玛分布;;风险过程考虑了含两个类的风险过程,首先介绍复合Poisson分布的一些性质,在此基础上给出了含两个类的风险过程总理赔量分布的近似,并对指数理赔分布的情形给出数值计算结果。Gamma Translation Approximation of Aggregate Claim Distribution for two Different Risk ProcessesHUA Chun_rong~1, LIU Yong_chen~2(1.Dept.of Mathematics,Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu 215500,China;2.The Middle School of Huangdai,Suzhou 215143,China)In this paper we     

应用多重PCR快速诊断山羊猝死症的研究

对 2例突然死亡的山羊病料进行细菌分离培养 ,再应用多重PCR方法对可疑菌进行鉴定和基因分型 ,结合流行病学、临床症状、病理变化 ,诊断为由A型产气荚膜梭菌引起的山羊猝死症 ,通过毒素中和试验加以验证 ,两者结果相一致 ,说明多重PCR方法可以用于动物猝死症的快速诊断     

Understanding young citizens’ political participation in Turkey: does ‘being young’ matter?

Participation is key to the discussions of democracy and justice. For all citizens, no matter their differences, having the ability to participate is a difficult but required condition for a just and democratic political community. Based on the recent research on citizenship in Turkey, this article aims to explore, first, whether young citizens’ political participation shows a different pattern when compared to the rest of the population and, second, whether being young still determines the outcome when controlled for demographical factors and economic status. We then question whether belonging to different collective identities plays a different role in the way young citizens participate, and how. Last, mostly focusing on young citizens’ perceptions of the Gezi Park protests, the paper will discuss the role of politicized collective identities in the formation of conventional and unconventional political participation.