Dynamic estimation of ideal points for the US Congress

Theories of candidate positioning suggest that candidates will respond dynamically to their electoral environment. Because of the difficulty of obtaining “bridge votes”, most existing approaches for estimating the ideal points of members of Congress generate static ideal points or ideal points that move linearly over time. We propose an approach for dynamic ideal point estimation using Project Vote Smart’s National Political Awareness Test to construct bridge votes. We use our dynamic estimates to measure aggregate change, to measure individual-level change, and to study the institutional and structural factors that explain the changing positions of House candidates and members of Congress. We demonstrate that while the Republican Party has been selecting increasingly extreme candidates, Democratic incumbents have become more extreme while in office. We also find that the congruence between elected members of Congress and their constituents is mostly explained by the selection as opposed to the responsiveness of the candidate. Nonetheless, we find evidence of dynamic responsiveness of incumbents in specific circumstances. We find that competitiveness, midterm elections, and sharing the president’s party affiliation are associated with greater responsiveness. Conversely, retirement is not associated with a change in responsiveness. We find no evidence of responsiveness of challengers. Finally, we find that close elections draw challengers who are more in line with the district’s ideology.     

Foreign threat and political party change: Russia and changes in party manifestos

How do political parties react to foreign security threats? There has been very little attention paid in the literature generally to how parties react to international events, particularly how parties react to foreign policy threats. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project, we examine how political parties in countries in Europe have reacted to Russian actions in terms of their emphasis on security issues. Based upon our analysis of the manifestoes from 331 parties in 36 countries we find that, generally, interstate threats have no significant effect on the military position adopted by political parties, although these effects vary by party type and by the type of threat. Russian based threats appear to be associated with the Far Left becoming more dovish (which is consistent with what would be expected by the literature) and the Far Right becoming significantly less hawkish.     

Culture on the Rise: How and Why Cultural Membership Promotes Democratic Politics

Selectively using Tocqueville, many social scientists suggest that civic participation increases democracy. We go beyond this neo-Tocquevillian model in three ways. First, to capture broader political and economic transformations, we consider different types of participation; results change if we analyze separate participation arenas. Some are declining, but a dramatic finding is the rise of arts and culture. Second, to assess impacts of participation, we study more dimensions of democratic politics, including distinct norms of citizenship and their associated political repertoires. Third, by analyzing global International Social Survey Programme and World Values Survey data, we identify dramatic subcultural differences: the Tocquevillian model is positive, negative, or zero in different subcultures and contexts that we explicate.     

Factors Associated with Physician Discussion of Health Behaviors with Adolescents

Behaviors developed in adolescence influence health later in life. The purpose of this study was to investigate the frequency of health care provider's discussion of health behaviors with overweight and non-overweight adolescents and identify demographic and health behaviors related to exercise, hours of television viewing, and weight issues associated with these discussions. A Cross sectional survey of urban adolescents was conducted. Trained interviewers administered surveys over a three month period in 2001 at an urban academic pediatric and adolescent clinic. The 252 adolescents surveyed had a mean age of 15 with 49% categorized as being at risk for overweight/overweight and 51% as normal weight using the CDC percentiles for BMI. While 16% of the adolescents reported that their physician or nurse discussed the amount of television they watched, rates of discussion related to exercise (58%), and weight (54%) were much higher. In multivariate analyses, health care provider discussions with adolescents regarding exercise were more common for overweight (O.R.=2.42, 95% C.I. [1.28–4.57]) and at risk for overweight (O.R.=1.98, 95% C.I. [1.03–3.81]) adolescents, whereas physician discussion of television viewing was not associated with weight. Discussions of weight were more common for female (O.R.=2.18, 95% C.I. [1.21–3.95]), African-American (O.R.=2.53, 95% C.I. [1.40–4.57]), and overweight (O.R.=3.92, 95% C.I. [1.97–7.81]) adolescents. Even after adjusting for weight, race and gender strongly influenced the frequency of discussions about weight in physician offices. Although health care providers frequently address weight and exercise with adolescents, more discussions related to sedentary behaviors such as television viewing may be warranted to address adolescent obesity.Received PhD in Epidemiology from University of California, San Diego. Research interests include smoking prevention and cessation among adolescents and health promotion interventions.Received MD from University of Missouri-Kansas City and MPH from Johns Hopkins University. Research interests include health services research and research in support of measurable, systematic improvements in the quality of medical care.Received medical degree from Christian Medical College, Punjab, India and Master of Public Health from University of Kansas School of Medicine. Research interests include diet and physical activity behaviors, role of the environment in obesity and obesity prevention, especially among children and adolescents.Received MBBS from Allama Iqbal Medical College, Punjab University, Lahore, Pakistan and MPH from University of Kansas Medical Center. Research interests include smoking cessation, database design, implementation, data management and analysis, and use of information technology in health care settings.Director, Cancer Prevention, Control, and Population Sciences, Kansas Cancer Institute. Received MD/MPH from Tulane University and MS from Harvard School of Public Health. Research interests include disparities in healthcare; smoking cessation among underserved populations, specifically African Americans; diet, nutrition, obesity, and physical activity.     

Multifactorial analysis of firearm wounds to the head with attention to anatomic location.

Firearm wounds to the head are often fatal and are routinely encountered in the practice of forensic pathology in the United States. Often, the anatomic site of the entrance wound is used to support or refute the manner of death indicated by the scene investigation and/or circumstances of the case. The present retrospective study of 120 fatalities resulting from 140 firearm wounds to the head correlates the anatomic region of the entrance wound and range of fire with the manner of death. Other demographic data analyzed include age, race, and gender of the decedents, as well as evidence of drug and/or ethanol use. It is hoped that this study will provide concrete data to support the largely anecdotal associations between the specific site of entry of firearm injuries to the head and the manner of death.     

A decade of pediatric homicide: a retrospective study at the Medical University of South Carolina.

More than 3 million children are abused and/or neglected each year in the United States. Unfortunately, a significant percentage of these cases result in homicide by child abuse or child neglect. Causes of death range from blunt force trauma and shaking to asphyxia to immolation. We retrospectively reviewed all pediatric forensic cases referred to the Medical University of South Carolina Forensic Pathology Section over the past 10 years, from January 1986 to December 1995. Of these, we looked only at children < or =5 years of age. The majority (342 cases, 69%) of these deaths were classified as natural, 96 (19%) as accident, and 60 (12%) as homicide. Of the homicides, we examined the cause of death; age, gender, and race of the victim; relationship to the perpetrator; time interval between injury and death; and the initial history given as to the cause of the injury. The cause of death fell into nine categories, the number one category being head trauma. Forty-five percent of the homicides were by head trauma, 12% by abdominal or body trauma, 25% by asphyxia (with half of these due to drowning), 10% by carbon monoxide poisoning or thermal injury, and the remaining 8% involving cases of neglect, stabbing, and poisoning. The majority of the homicide victims were male (67%) and black (67%). Forty-six percent were < or =1 year of age. Approximately 25% of the homicide cases were designated as shaken baby syndrome (SBS). In 97% of the cases, the assailant was known to the victim and was a family relative in 77%. Sixty-three percent of the assailants were female and 45% of the assailants were male; in 12%, the assailants were both parents, and in 1 case, the assailant remains unknown. Of the asphyxia deaths, 87% of the assailants were female. The time interval between injury and death ranged from minutes to hours in most cases to months in cases of repeated abuse and chronic injury and sequelae. The time interval between injury and the onset of symptoms remains unknown in most cases due to inconsistencies in the history and lack of credibility of the caretaker. The most common initial history given was "a fall" (20%). We report our findings of a decade of pediatric homicides to increase awareness of the common scenarios and case histories, demographics of the victims, causes of death, and perpetrators of pediatric homicide.