Operational social systems modeling: Pitfalls and prospectives

As myriad social problems press for attention and resolution, a variety of individuals have joined the search for means to understand and manage those problems. An important component of the search is the use of analytic methods and models, which are being relied on to a large and unprecedented extent. Social systems modeling appears to have a future of both high potential and growth. However, as is the case with many emerging and evolving fields, operational or applied social modeling has had its share of failures and only limited successes, and it will undoubtedly continue to do so. This essay concentrates on what appear to be several of the key, unresolved problems impeding full and productive use of these methods and techniques. It is both a summary assessment of experiences to date and a blueprint for work yet to be done.An earlier version of this essay was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.; on February 15, 1978.     

Substitution and Supplementation Between Co‐Functional Policy Instruments: Evidence from State Budget Stabilization Practices

Governments often use multiple policy instruments for pursuing policy goals with mutually reinforcing effects. These effects include supplementation and substitution. This article examines both effects by studying two instruments of state budget stabilization policy: general fund balances and budget stabilization funds. States normally maintain budget surpluses in the general fund. In recent decades, many also created separate budget stabilization funds to guard against economic downturns. Empirical results show that substitution occurs between these instruments. In other words, the influence of the first instrument is partially offset by the second. The second instrument also produces some independent impacts—called supplementation—that increase the overall influence of both instruments. Such self‐reinforcement decreases over time, suggesting that multiple policy instruments are most effective in the initial stage of application.     

Forensic analysis of bioagents by X-ray and TOF-SIMS hyperspectral imaging

Hyperspectral imaging combined with multivariate statistics is an approach to microanalysis that makes the maximum use of the large amount of data potentially collected in forensics analysis. This study examines the efficacy of using hyperspectral imaging-enabled microscopies to identify chemical signatures in simulated bioagent materials. This approach allowed for the ready discrimination between all samples in the test. In particular, the hyperspectral imaging approach allowed for the identification of particles with trace elements that would have been missed with a more traditional approach to forensic microanalysis. The importance of combining signals from multiple length scales and analytical sensitivities is discussed.     

Where the twain meet: Reconciling science and politics in analysis

It is argued that the conceptual and practical differences of intent and application that characterize politics and science - as professions and processes - are so great as to render interaction between them problematic. In fact, analysis is postulated as a third distinct alternative, having its own imperatives, purposes, and uses; furthermore, the relationships between science, analysis, and politics are identified and found to be of potentially greater significance to those concerned with the policy process than is normally imagined.     

Red Tape: Developing and Validating a New Job‐Centered Measure

Red tape studies typically focus on burdensome rules that have negative effects on organizations, as perceived by managers. The one‐item general red tape scale is representative of this approach. However, scholars have called for improved measures that address the scale's shortcomings. This article introduces a new measurement scale that features (1) red tape as a two‐dimensional construct that includes compliance burden and lack of functionality and (2) a job‐centered approach that measures red tape as experienced by employees in their jobs rather than more generally in the organization. A set of survey questions derived from interviews with government employees was validated using data from 1,203 government employees. The findings indicate that the two‐dimensional job‐centered red tape scale is reliable and valid. The authors conclude that this measure can improve research and be used by managers for a “quick scan” to detect the location and severity of red tape.     

Personnel Constraints in Public Organizations: The Impact of Reward and Punishment on Organizational Performance

In recent years, many public sector reforms have attempted to loosen personnel constraints on the assumption that more managerial flexibility will increase organizational performance. The authors mount an empirical study to test this assumption using data taken from English local government authorities. Personnel constraints are operationalized using Rainey's long‐standing measures of the concept. Statistical results from multiple regression analyses indicate that “difficulty in removing poor managers” is harmful to organizational performance, but “difficulty in rewarding good managers” has no effect. The authors delve inside the organizational hierarchy and find that attitudes toward personnel constraints vary by organizational level and managerial rank: for example, frontline managers feel more constrained overall, while senior managers’ perceptions of constraints are more closely linked to organizational performance but in some unexpected ways. The implications of these findings, including the fact that personnel constraints have varying impacts on organizational performance, are considered.