Costly,Regressive, and Ineffective: How Sensitive Is Public Support for the Mortgage Interest Deduction in the United States?

ABSTRACT

Although the mortgage interest deduction enjoys broad public support, critics argue that the policy disproportionately benefits wealthy households, fails to expand homeownership opportunities to households on the margins, and costs the federal government an extraordinary amount of money in foregone tax revenue. Drawing on data collected through an online experiment, this analysis tests the sensitivity of public support to these critiques. The findings reveal that support for the mortgage interest deduction declines when respondents are presented with information about the cost, effectiveness, or distribution of benefits associated with the deduction. Support among renters is more sensitive to framing effects than that among homeowners. Republicans are less sensitive to framing effects than Democrats when the deduction is framed as distributing benefits unequally, but more sensitive to these effects when the issue is framed as costly. However, all groups register their lowest level of support when told that the mortgage interest deduction is not an effective tool for expanding ownership opportunities.     

OBITUARIES

The Indian Federation. An Exposition and Critical Review. By Sir Shafa'at Ahmad Khan, Litt.D. Pp. xii + 450. 6?” × 9”. Macmillan and Co. 1937. 15s.

The Spirit of Zen. By Alan W. Watts. Wisdom of the East Series. Edited by L. Cranmer‐Byng and Dr. S. A. Katadia. 73/4” × 5”. Pp. 136. John Murray, 1936. 3s. 6d.

When Japan Goes to War.* By O. Tanin and E. Yohan. 8/1/4>” × 5/1/2>”. Pp. 271. Lawrence and Wishart. 5s.

Japan at the Cross Roads. By Walter Smith. Published by Lawrence and Wishart, London. 1936. 3s. 6d.

The Far East Comes Nearer. By H. Hcsscll Tiltman. Pp. 314. Illustrated. London: Jarrolds. 1936. 12s. 6d.

The China Year Book, 1936

Problems of Chinese Education. By Victor Purcell, Ph.D. 8 /3/4>” ×5/3/4>. Pp. viii+261. London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co., Ltd. 1936. 10s. 6d.

Attack on Everest. By Neil Macintyre. Pp. 172. Methuen. 5s.

Tibetan Journey. By Madame Alexandra David‐Neel. 9” × 5 ?”. Pp. 276. Maps and illustrations. London: John Lane, The Bodley Head. 12s. 6d.

Social Organization and Customary Law of the Nepalese Tribes. By Dr. Leonhard Adam, American Anthropologist. No. 4. 3$

Khyber Caravan: Through Kashmir, Waziristan, Baluchistan and Northern India. By Gordon Sinclair. 8 3/4” × 6”. Pp. xvi+287. Maps. Hurst and Blackett. 12s. 6d.

The Clear Mirror: A Pattern of Life in Goa and in Indian Tibet. By G. E. Hutchinson. 9” × 5 ⁷/_8". Pp. xii+171. Cambridge University Press. 8s. 6d.

Ganésa: A Monograph on the Elephant‐Faced God. By Alice Getty. With an Introduction by Alfred Foucher. Oxford : Clarendon Press. 1936.

Afghanistan. A Brief Survey. By J. D. Ahmada and M. A. Aziz. With a Foreword by Dr. Sir Muhammad Iqbal. 10” × 7/1/2>". Pp. xx + 159. First published by Dar‐ut‐Talif, Kabul, September, 1934. New impression, Longmans, Green and Co., printers in India, April, 1936. Three maps and seventy illustrations. 12s. 6d. Library edition, 15s. 6d.

The Harēm. By N. M. Penzer. Pp. 260. Index. Map. Forty‐two plates. Harrap and Co. 1936. 21s.

Moslem Women Enter a New World. By Ruth Frances Woodsmall. Publications of the American University of Beirut, Social Science Series, No. 14. London: George Allen and Unwin, Ltd. 12s. 6d.

The Effects of Centralization on Education in Modern Egypt. By Russell Gait, Ph.D. 9?"× 6”. Pp. vi + 134. Cairo: Department of Education, American University. 1936.

The Nile : From the Source to Egypt. The Life‐Story of a River. By Emil Ludwig. Translated by Mary Lindsay. London: Allen and Unwin. 1936. Price 16s.

Sea Adventures. By Henry de Monfried. Translated by Helen Buchanan Bell. Thirteen illustrations and endpaper map. Methuen and Co., Ltd. 10s. 6d.

The Dangerous Sea: The Mediterranean. By George Slocombc. 8/3/4> × 5/3/4>”. Pp. xxx+286. Hutchinson. 1936. 10s. 6d.

Aden Protectorate: A Report on the Social, Economic and Politica Condition of the Hadhramaut. By W. H. Ingrams, O.B.E. Colonial No. 123. Pp. 1–127. With map. H.M. Stationery Office. 3s.

The Arabian Knight: Sir Richard Burton. By Seton Dearden. Pp.334. Arthur Barker. 12s. 6d.

The Gates of Jerusalem. By Jacqueline Cockburn. With an appreciation by Sir Ronald Storrs, K.C.M.G., C.B.E. Pp. x + 300. John Murray. 7s. 6d.

Who is Prosperous in Palestine ? Labour Pamphlet No. 7.

The Palestine Mandate : Invalid and Impracticable. By W. F. Boustany. Palestine Information Centre. 1936. IS. 6d.     

Genetic and environmental influences underlying the relationship between low self-control and substance use

Purpose

The current study seeks to examine the relationship between low self-control and cigarette smoking, alcohol use, and marijuana use in adolescence and adulthood using behavioral genetic methodology.

Methods

Using a subsample of twin pairs from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), the current study estimates the genetic and environmental overlap between low self-control and substance use (or problems associated with substance use) across four waves of data collection.

Results

The overall pattern of results suggests that genetic factors explain a moderate proportion of the variance in low self-control and substance use in both adolescence and adulthood. Furthermore, bivariate genetic analyses reveal that the correlation between low self-control and substance use is due, for the most part, to common genetic and nonshared environmental factors.

Conclusions

The current study adds to a growing body of biosocial research on self-control and its relationship to criminal and analogous behaviors. The implications of our findings for the general theory of crime are discussed.     

A Cautionary Tale: Council Amalgamation in Tasmania and the Deloitte Access Economics Report

Contemporary Australian public policy has come to rely increasingly on technical reports produced by commercial consultants in contrast to the traditional approach, which employed disinterested public servants to generate the specialist information required to inform decision makers. This approach is fraught with problems, not least the fact that ‘hired guns’ have strong incentives to create the ‘answers’ sought by their employers. By way of a ‘cautionary tale’, this paper examines the empirical evidence adduced in favour of radical amalgamation of Tasmanian local authorities in Local Government Structural Reform in Tasmania, produced by Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) (2011), and commissioned by the Property Council of Tasmania. In particular, the paper provides a critical analysis of the econometric modelling undertaken in the DAE (2011) Report. We find that if the DAE model is re‐estimated – employing alternative functional forms – then the empirical evidence in support of Tasmania council merges evaporates.     

Business Formalisation in Vietnam

We estimate the impact of business formalisation using nationally representative panel data on businesses in Vietnam. Our data allows us to observe businesses for two surveys prior to obtaining a licence and hence to control for differential trends before formalisation. We find that obtaining a licence is not associated with an increase in profits or other business outcomes such as revenue, expenses, and employment once we control for differential trends. Controlling for trends is crucial, as estimates that ignore trends consistently find a larger positive association between becoming licensed and business performance. Our results suggest that inducing more businesses to register is unlikely to bring about large-scale changes for these businesses.     

Response to Cilluffo and Gergely

Research on the motives of those who engage in small group political violence typically takes a qualitative or quantitative form. I argue that researchers should seek to understand why people engage in small group political violence, and that the best way to achieve such understanding is to employ both. The advantages of this approach are discussed in this paper, as is the importance of recognizing that the activities of all actors in any given violent location, including state actors, should be accounted for in research.     

Do 90 Percent of Terrorist Groups Last Less than a Year? Updating the Conventional Wisdom

ABSTRACT

Prominent scholars criticize terrorism research for lacking sufficient empirical testing of arguments. Interestingly, one of the most widely cited estimates in terrorism studies has not been evaluated using the many data sources now available. Rapoport’s 1992 claim, that perhaps 90 percent of terrorist groups last less than one year, has been described as part of the conventional wisdom. This estimate is frequently used to justify studies of terrorist group longevity, a substantial line of research in recent years. Is the estimate accurate? Scholars increasingly publish data sets of terrorist organizations, but no one has analyzed them collectively to see if the 90 percent claim holds up. This article examines the eight largest global data sets of terrorist group longevity, covering 1968–2013. The samples vary considerably, but the percentage of groups that do not survive beyond their first year in these relevant data sets is between 25–74 percent. Across all data sets, on average about 50 percent of terrorist organizations do not make it past their first year. There is some variation depending on group motivations, consistent with Rapoport’s “wave” theory. However, overall, terrorist organizations appear to be more durable than the conventional wisdom suggests.     

The limits of analogy: comparing Islamophobia and antisemitism

ABSTRACT

The predicament faced by Muslims today, either in the United Kingdom specifically or in the West more generally, is often compared with the predicament faced by Jews at some point in the past. Muslims, it is suggested, are the new Jews. Klug's article homes in on one element in this view, the claim that Islamophobia is the new antisemitism, and considers the analogy between them. An introductory section sketches the political context, after which Klug focuses on logical or conceptual issues. The two middle sections contain the core of the analysis: consideration of the two terms ‘antisemitism’ and ‘Islamophobia’ in relation to the concepts they denote, followed by an examination of the concepts as such. Certain conclusions are drawn about both their general logic and their specific logics. The final section returns to the political context and, via critique of a thesis put forward by Matti Bunzl, discusses the uses of the analogy. Klug argues that the question we need to ask is not ‘Are Islamophobia and antisemitism analogous?’ but ‘What is the analogy worth?’ The value of the analogy lies in the light it sheds on the social and political realities that confront us in the here and now. Does it illuminate more than it obscures? These things are a matter of judgement. Klug leans towards asserting an analogy between antisemitism in the past and Islamophobia in the present, within limits.