中美关系新阶段中的战略“失语”与战略稳定探索

过去几年,中美关系从国际体系内的霸权国家与国际体系外的相对较弱国家之间的关系,演变为国际体系内的守成强国与崛起强国之间的关系。这种变化导致中美关系告别了过去四十余年的"接触—融入"战略框架。中美关系进入新阶段后,两国需要一个双方都可接受的、新的战略稳定框架,以确保中美关系的长期稳定。然而,由于种种原因,两国迄今尚未能形成可以为两国关系实践提供战略指导的新框架与新论述。美国方面出现了以亚太政策代替中国政策等问题;中国方面提出的"新型大国关系"概念也未能获得美方很好地理解与接受。因此,过去几年中美关系进入一个缺乏宏观战略共识指引的新时期。这是过去几年中美关系中的竞争面、消极面日益凸显的重要原因。让人鼓舞的是,中美两国领导人在危机管控、全球议题合作等领域,正在以逐案处理的方式,为两国摸索新的利益边界。这种探索或许能够导致中美两国形成新的稳定框架,其产生的"正能量"与中美结构性矛盾自然产生的"负能量"之间的"竞赛"将决定未来一段时间内中美关系的移动方向。不过,两国领导人的这种尝试未来也将面临美国政治周期变化等不确定因素的影响。     

Absorptive capacity in child welfare: measurement challenges and item development

Promoting successful implementation of evidence-based practices within child welfare agencies necessitates accurately measuring absorptive capacity (i.e., the ability to acquire, assimilate, transform, and exploit knowledge) through valid and reliable assessment. However, a measurement tool does not exist for child welfare agencies. As such, this exploratory study identified existing measures and items relevant to absorptive capacity in child welfare. The study resulted in 12 identified measures, comprising 98 applicable items. This research is a first step toward creating a measure for use in child welfare settings that will guide practice and administration decisions through valid measurement.     

中美在亚太地区的安全矛盾：演变与逻辑

近年来,中美在亚太地区的安全矛盾持续发酵,逐渐形成安全利益、理念和地区安全秩序构想的全面对立态势,成为影响中美和平共处的重要因素。秩序疑虑与热点问题的对立是中美在亚太地区安全矛盾的主要表现。中美亚太安全矛盾的全方位突显,根本上源于两国力量对比的变化以及由此引发的权力转移态势,是中美总体力量差距背景下局部力量平衡的表现。这种力量平衡表现为:中国作为地区经济中心与美国作为地区安全中心的“二元结构平衡”;中国作为陆权大国与美国作为海权大国的“陆海权力平衡”;在中国近海区域,中美权力均衡态势初步形成。在此过程中,中美对既有安全矛盾管理的失效以及彼此安全威胁认知的反复塑造,客观上增强了矛盾对立的烈度,安全困境逐步形成。随着权力消长和政策互动,中美在亚太地区的安全困境,逐步呈现出从经典安全困境转向“国家引导型的安全困境”加剧的趋势。未来,中美亚太安全矛盾仍然会受到结构性因素的影响,而经济相互依存趋势、技术发展引发的军事威慑变化、意识形态竞争以及非传统安全合作等因素,则将决定既有安全矛盾是否会走向冲突。     

地缘政治理论研究的新篇章——读陆俊元《地缘政治的本质与规律》有感

在当今学界，地缘政治可谓是一个热门话题，各种论说让人应接不暇，但深层的学理探究似乎远不能胜任地缘政治理论建设的客观需要。因此，当我读到时事出版社以“专家纵论”专题推出的陆俊元教授的专著《地缘政治的本质与规律》一书时，即深深地为其丰富的理论含量、积极的创新和精湛的阐论所吸引。全书立意新颖，逻辑严谨，述论有据。从地缘政治的根本性质、内在规律，到地缘政治的形态与结构，作者对地缘政治涉及的重大理论问题进行了积极而审慎的思考与探索。全书主线突出，前后环环相扣，读来引人人胜。书中关于地缘政治的界定、对地缘政治规律的分析以及对地缘政治研究方法的创新等重要篇章，可圈可点之处颇多。     

Characterising stutter in forensic STR multiplexes

Stutter is an artefact seen when amplifying short tandem repeats and typically occurs at one repeat unit shorter in length than the parent allele. In forensic analysis, stutter complicates the analysis of DNA profiles from multiple contributors, known as mixed profiles, a common profile type. Consequently it is important to both understand and predict stutter behaviour in order to improve our understanding of the resolution and interpretation of these profiles. Whilst stutter is well recognised and documented, little information is available that identifies and quantifies what influences the formation of stutter. In this work we use a novel approach to examine this. We have used synthetic oligonucleotides comprising multiple repeat units to test; the influence of repeat number, the influence of repeat sequence and the impact of interruptions to the repeat sequence length. Using multiple replicates allows detailed statistical analysis. We have confirmed a linear relationship between stutter ratio and repeat number. We have shown that increased A-T content increases stutter ratio and that interruptions in repeating sequences decreased stutter ratios to levels similar to the longest uninterrupted repeat stretch. We also found that there was no relationship between stutter ratio and repeat number for a repeat unit with an A-T content of 1/4 and that half of the interrupted repeat sequences stuttered significantly less than their longest uninterrupted repeat stretches. We have applied the knowledge gained to examine specific features of the loci present in the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® multiplex kit used in our laboratory.     

发展数控实训培养创新人才

数控实训是学生进行工程实践的主要途径，培养创新型应用人才是数控人才教学培养目标的选择。只有合理安排课程设置、确培养目标，增强实训基地软硬件，提高识字能力，完善安全管理制度；才能培养出符合社会需要的创新型人才。     

The BRICs Come of Global Age

The world is rapidly evolving on many fronts. Brazil, Turkey and other emerging powers are taking their own initiatives and building their own global links outside the old frameworks of the G‐8, the United Nations Security Council and NATO. The “third way” politics of Tony Blair that embraced globalization from the left of center in Britain has given way to the Tory party once again. Just as recovery from the financial crash seemed on the horizon, Europe's sovereign debt crisis has erupted. The historically unprecedented pace and scale of urbanization in China is transforming the politics of the Communist Party. President Lula of Brazil, former US treasury secretary Henry Paulson, Singapore's foreign minister George Yeo and others take stock of these manifold developments.