Prognosemodell auf dem Prüfstand: Die Bundestagswahl 2005

Our forecast model for German elections came within three-tenth of a percent in predicting the vote of the governing parties (SPD and Greens, 42.3% combined) in the 2005 Bundestag election. The predictors of the vote were (1) the popularity of the incumbent chancellor, (2) the long-term electoral support for the incumbent parties, and (3) a discount for the governing coalition’s tenure in office. Given the recent formation of a new party left of the SPD, the popularity of Chancellor Schröder was adjusted (assuming that supporters of this new party favored him as chancellor over the CDU challenger). Our forecast gave the governing parties enough of a vote to rule out victory for the center-right alternative (CDU/CSU and FDP) so long as the new left party did as well as polls suggested.     

Homeland Security Preparedness: The Rebirth of Regionalism

The homeland security mission has placed many new demands onthe U.S. system of federalism. The successful implementationof homeland security policy requires cooperation among all levelsof government—federal, state, and local. Regionalism offersa powerful tool for encouraging greater intergovernmental cooperationand improved homeland security preparedness. We assess the impactof regionalism on intergovernmental cooperation and the implementationof the homeland security mission in Florida, an early proponentof the regional approach. From a regional perspective, we evaluatehow intergovernmental complexity, the quality and quantity ofintergovernmental networks, and security vulnerabilities contributeto perceived improvements in intergovernmental cooperation andhomeland security preparedness. The results of a 2004 mail surveyof city and county officials suggest that regional organizationalstructures are most effective in promoting intergovernmentalcooperation and preparedness where the intergovernmental landscapeis the most complex and where security vulnerabilities are themost intense.     

Citizen-Centered Collaborative Public Management

Civic engagement and collaborative public management are concepts that are defined broadly, making theoretical explication challenging and practical application of empirical research difficult. In this article, the authors adopt definitions of civic engagement and collaborative public management that are centered on the citizen and the potential for active citizenship. Following a historical review of civic engagement in the United States, a conceptual model of five approaches to civic engagement is offered. Citizen-centered collaborative public management is enhanced through these approaches. The authors suggest the need for further empirical research on collaborative public management that is grounded in citizenship action.     

Public choice principles of redistricting

This paper uses fundamental principles of public choice, mainly the median voter theorem, to develop a simple theory of redistricting. The focus is on how closely policy outcomes correspond to majority rule. The main results are: (1) Potential policy bias in favor of nonmajority groups is structurally linked to the number of legislative seats and the population, and the structure of most states puts them very close to the theoretically maximum bias. (2) Random districting, which might seem like the essence of neutrality, does not eliminate policy bias on average. (3) Traditional principles of compact, contiguous districts that respect existing political boundaries, stressed in the Supreme Court’s Shaw v. Reno decision, minimize the chance of nonmajoritarian outcomes. Our analysis also offers a gerrymandering explanation for the positive relation between seats and spending that is usually taken as support for the “Law of 1/n.”     

Contribution limits and the effectiveness of campaign spending

Much work on the apparent ineffectiveness on incumbent spending in congressional elections has hypothesized that the productivity of incumbent spending is low because incumbents operate on the “flat part” of their election returns function. Differences in campaign spending associated with state campaign finance laws allows for a test of this hypothesis because restrictions on campaign contributions tend to reduce campaign spending. Exploiting cross-state variation in campaign finance laws, this study tests whether campaign expenditures by state House candidates are more productive when candidates are subject to contribution limits. The results show that campaign expenditures by incumbents and challengers are more productive when candidates run in states with campaign contribution limits, as opposed to in states without limits. In states with contribution limits, incumbent spending and challenger spending are equally productive, and spending by both candidates is quantitatively important in increasing their vote shares.     

美国在安理会的行为——以海湾战争为例

在联合国改革呼声高涨的今天,安理会能否形成海湾战争期间的合作模式意义重大。五大常任理事国应考虑各成员国的外交需求和民族利益、事先取得一致,以此提高效率。理性使用否决权将是安理会进步的标志,表明安理会有能力消除威胁和平与安全的因素、挽救深陷困苦或濒临灭绝的生命。     

Medical rationing: the implicit result of Leadership by Example

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) has released the latest publication in its campaign to curtail medical error: Leadership by Example: Coordinating Government Roles in Improving Health Care Quality. In this publication, the IOM recommends that the government utilize its position as the country's largest purchaser of healthcare to institute unified performance standards, create appropriate incentives to improve quality of care, and develop a system to disseminate provider-specific quality information to the public. The author examines these recommendations and the contents of IOM's prior publications and concludes that necessary predicates of IOM's vision are rationing of care and a two-tiered system of healthcare. Thus, if the IOM's recommendations are carried out, the author envisions a healthcare system in which truly state-of-the-art care can only be purchased out of pocket. He concludes that, although Leadership by Example is a rational plan to address escalating healthcare costs, it is unclear both whether the American public would support it if the IOM were explicit about its ultimate impact, and whether the recommendations, in the long run, will prove to be a good thing.