A study of the performance and utility of annealing in forensic glass analysis

The use of annealing in forensic glass casework is reviewed. New data is presented that suggests a continuous approach to the interpretation of such data may be superior to the classification approach. Data are presented supporting the previously observed relationship between change in refractive index (RI) and the thickness of the glass pane. An examination of the possible assumption of independence between RI and change in RI is undertaken.     

A comparison of adjustment methods to test the robustness of an STR DNA database comprised of 24 European populations

An aim of the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) is to produce a DNA database of second generation multiplex (SGM) STR profiles that is representative of the resident cosmopolitan populations. To achieve this, data were collected from 24 different populations. All of the data were combined to form one database of 5700 profiles from which allele proportions were calculated. The robustness of this combined European database was tested by estimating parameter d for every DNA profile, where d=log(10)(Pm(c)/Pm(E)) Pm(c) is the match probability of the profile calculated from its cognate database and Pm(E) is the match probability of the combined European database. Overall there was a small tendency for Pm(c)>Pm(E) primarily because of sampling bias. This bias was removed by the simple expediency of applying an adjustment factor to the calculation of Pm(E). These were selected from the Balding size bias correction, the Balding and Nichols Fst correction, a minimum allele proportion (between 0.01 and 0.02), an upper bound of a 95% confidence interval (CI) and a lower bound on the genotype match probability. It was demonstrated that a single European database is a feasible proposition. A combination of different adjustment methods can be used to ensure that the result is conservative relative to the cognate database, and their effect measured by parameter d.     

An experimental comparison of adversarial versus inquisitorial procedural regimes

This article reports the results of a multiyear series of economicexperiments comparing the two dominant types of legal proceduresused in adjudication: (1) the 'adversarial' model of party-controlledprocedure versus (2) the 'inquisitorial' model of judge-controlledprocedure. The principal finding is that the relative fact-findingefficiency of the two systems, in terms of both the 'revelation'of hidden facts and the 'accuracy' of decision, depends significantlyupon the information structure. Under a 'private' informationstructure, inquisitorial procedure is relatively more efficient,whereas under a 'correlated' information structure, adversarialprocedure is relatively more efficient.     

The two trace transfer problem re-examined.

The classical two trace transfer problem initially discussed by Evett is reconsidered [Evett IW. On Meaningful Questions: A Two-Trace Transfer Problem. Journal of the Forensic Science Society 1987; 27: 375-381]. In this problem we consider the situation where there are two stains of differing types at a crime scene. Evett considered the situation where both are known to be relevant to the offence. It was further assumed that there were exactly two offenders. Reanalysis of this problem suggests that the key consideration is the conditioning on there being exactly two offenders, not that there were two stains. The treatment here leads easily to a generalisation in which stains have differing relevance and there are k offenders.     

How many samples from a drug seizure need to be analyzed?

Recently Aitken introduced an outstanding advance in the approach to decision making regarding drugs sampling. Unfortunately this approach has not, as yet, been widely implemented despite being based on a solid mathematical foundation. In this paper we advocate a Bayesian approach along the lines of that outlined by Aitken but designed to be both easily understood with less mathematical sophistication and implementable using standard EXCEL software. The emphasis is placed on encouraging the application of this methodology to routine case work by explaining the statistics involved. Minor differences exist between this approach and that of Aitken in both the modeling of the prior probability and in dealing with the discrete nature of the samples. These differences in no way detract from the sound mathematical foundation of the approach.     

Paternity calculations from DNA multilocus profiles

DNA profiles prepared using multilocus probes can provide valuable evidence in cases of disputed parentage. This paper describes a simple approach to the analysis of the profiles from a mother, child and putative father in a case of disputed paternity. Although the treatment has not yet been extended to deal with cases in which mutant bands may have appeared, it has already proved useful in casework. The analysis is illustrated by a numerical example calculated on a computer spreadsheet.     

Calculating the frequency of occurrence of a blood type for a 'random man'.

A scheme is offered for the calculation of blood group frequencies for mixed racial populations. The issue of which population to model is discussed. Consideration is also given to the racial composition of the desired survey and to the rule of mutual independence. The scheme can in many cases be applied to existing data.     

Dealing with allelic dropout when reporting the evidential value in DNA relatedness analysis

A method is suggested that allows the use of loci that have shown allelic dropout in kinship analysis as used for disaster victim identification (DVI) and missing person work (MP). This approach uses an extension of a previously published approach to modelling allelic dropout. This method may salvage some information in cases where allelic dropout is hindering DVI or MP work particularly in reconciliations involving a large number of bodies and pedigrees. It should not replace the pursuit of more complete DNA profiles by the normal rework process for such samples.