US Presidential popularity and opportunities to coerce North Korea: a quantitative test 1990 2000

This paper investigates how North Korean behaviour towards boththe United States and South Korea is influenced by the popularityof the American President. The study applies theories relatingto strategic conflict avoidance and signalling to suggest thatthe American President is able to demonstrate a willingnessto use force when he is unpopular and as such is better ableto coerce Pyongyang. Using a time-series model, I demonstratethat the North Koreans become more cooperative towards the UnitedStates in response to decreases in presidential popularity andincreasing levels of US inflation. However, the study also showsthat the North Koreans do not alter their behaviour towardsthe South Koreans in response to low American President Popularityratings. The research, therefore, suggests that the North Koreansbelieve that the United States would be unable to launch a diversionaryattack in response to North Korean behaviour towards the South.This study provides a clear support for the strategic avoidanceof conflict hypothesis and suggests that the American Presidentsare best able to coerce North Korea when they are unpopularat home. Received for publication August 31, 2005. Accepted for publication December 21, 2005.     

THE BOOKSHELF

Books reviewed in this article:
G. Andrew Benjamin and Jackie Gollan, Family Evaluation in Custody Litigation: Reducing Risks of Ethical Infractions and Malpractice .     

Spatial variation of refractive index in a pane of float glass.

In the statistical interpretation of forensic glass evidence it is standard practice to make the assumption of homogeneity of the refractive index (RI) of the source glass, or of localized homogeneity. However, the work of Locke and Hayes showed that, for toughened windscreen glass, this assumption might not be true. This work is well cited, but there appears to have been little follow-on published research. Furthermore, the toughening process is something known to affect the refractive index, and is a process that float glass does not undergo. Float glass is a major component of casework in New Zealand and for that reason it would be interesting to know whether the findings of Locke and Hayes apply when dealing with float glass. In this paper we describe an experiment similar to that of Locke and Hayes, systematically examining the variation of RI in a pane of float window glass. It was found that, although there were no systematic differences in refractive index, there were observable differences across the pane.     

Uncovered bones on the Baltic Sea beach--human or animal?]

Report of an unusual finding of bones on the shore of the Baltic Sea. Although the morphological findings appeared similar to a human foot skeleton, a quick identification as sea dog bone was possible.     

Site of discovery in the bath tub. Evaluation of a fatality after four years using postmortem roentgen diagnosis]

On the one hand the following case demonstrates the problems of finding a dead body in the bathroom and on the other hand the importance of postmortem x-ray examinations. The corpse of an 65-year-old woman was discovered in her bath tub. At the body's feet there was a hair dryer. Investigations concerning murder were negative, circumstances appeared to be unsuspicious. That was why a postmortem examination was not performed. -4 years later murder had to be considered. After manual strangling the deceased and the hair dryer were layed into the bath tub. The corpse was exhumed and taken to a forensic autopsy. It was found that the hyoid bone and the superior horn of the thyroid cartilage were both fractured on the right. Damages caused by the preparation itself were excluded by using serial roentgenographs. These observations in combination with histological findings and the results of further investigations convincingly supported the suspicion of strangling by hand.     

A statistical approach to drug sampling: a case study.

In many countries it is left to the discretion of the court to accept or reject conclusions based on sampling procedures as applied to the total drug exhibit. As an alternative to this subjective approach, a statistical basis is presented using binomial and hypergeometric distributions to determine a lower limit for the proportion of units in a population which contains a drug, at a given confidence level. A method for calculating the total weight of a drug present in a population within a given confidence interval is also presented. In the event of no failures (all units sampled contain a drug), a sample size of six or seven units is generally sufficient to state that a proportion of at least 0.70 of the population contains a drug at a confidence level of at least 90%. When failures do occur in the sample, point estimation is used as the basis for selecting the appropriate sample size.     

A rapid gas chromatographic method for the fingerprinting of illicit cocaine samples.

A gas chromatographic (GC) fingerprint method, based on the presence or absence of six congeners, was developed for illicit cocaine samples. The fingerprint utilizes the relative abundances of these congeners towards each other, disregarding cocaine as the main constituent, and can be expressed numerically or graphically in the form of pictograms for rapid visual comparison. The method can be applied directly to a solution of the sample in chloroform, without previous workup procedures. More than 70 unrelated samples were analyzed and a great variation was observed in the parameter composition. On the other hand, a remarkable similarity could be seen between related samples. The GC fingerprint method may be considered an important contribution for sample comparison, as is exemplified by a subdivision of the analyzed samples in different categories, based on the number and types of congeners found.     

A case of sudden infant death due to massive hemorrhage in primitive neuroectodermal tumor.

A case of the sudden death of a 14-month-old girl due to massive hemorrhage in a primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET) is presented along with a review of the relevant literature. PNET is a rare, malignant brain neoplasm occurring predominantly in children.     

Determination of cocaine and benzoylecgonine in human amniotic fluid using high flow solid-phase extraction columns and HPLC.

A new solid-phase extraction procedure for the determination of cocaine and benzoylecgonine in amniotic fluid, using high flow co-polymeric sorbents is reported. The recoveries of cocaine and benzoylecgonine within the range 0.1-1 mg/l were 95.7% and 50.3%, respectively. The use of high-flow sorbents allowed the easy extraction of amniotic fluid regardless of sample viscosity or physical nature. The use of these solid-phase columns provided many advantages over the more commonly used solvent extraction, including an increase in extraction speed and efficiency, reduced operator time, reduced solvent use and disposal volumes and exceptional extract quality. Further, the determination of amniotic fluid obtained from pregnant cocaine users may provide important information about handling of cocaine by the fetus at various gestational ages. The procedure was successfully applied to amniotic fluid from suspected cocaine abusers.