Can the Boundary Commissions Help the Conservative Party? Constituency Size and Electoral Bias in the United Kingdom

As part of a strategy to remove perceived biases operating against it in the system used for elections to the House of Commons, the British Conservative party is promoting a revision of the rules used by the Boundary Commissions to ensure greater equality in constituency electorates. A Bill designed to achieve this—and also to reduce the size of the House—was introduced to the House of Lords in 2007. This paper critiques that Bill and suggests an alternative formulation that would better achieve the goal, whilst identifying a number of operational difficulties that its implementation would involve.     

Conservative Constituency Parties' Funding and Spending in England and Wales, 2004–2005

Under new regulations established by the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 , data are now available—through the Electoral Commission—on the income, expenditure and financial health of constituency political parties. These cover all parties with an annual turnover of £25,000 or more. The returns from 263 Conservative constituency party units in England and Wales for 2004 and 2005 (the latter being a general election year) are analysed here, showing that not only are very few wealthy but that a majority implicitly operate with an annual turnover below the defined threshold. Sources of income and patterns of expenditure are analysed, as are the patterns of large donations (which have to be separately reported). In general, the greatest turnover is to be found in marginal constituencies.     

The Diffusion of Responsibility: An Alternative Perspective for National Policy Politics in the US

This article proposes a diffusion of responsibility perspective in analyzing post–World War II politics in the United States. Many analysts test the American system by a responsible party perspective, proposing reforms that will orient the system toward the goals of that model. Divided government has characterized much of the period since 1945 and identifiable (and wholly constitutional) politics has accompanied that development. The diffusion of responsibility alternative is characterized by a separated presidency, an expansive Congress, competition between the branches for shared power, and, absent a crisis, a tendency toward perpetuation.     

On prediction in political science

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time-scale.