The Limits of Peace: Third Parties in Civil Wars in Southeast Asia, 1993–2004

At of the end of 2005, Asia had the highest number of active civil war dyads. The number of active dyads in other regions was either low or declining. Africa, in particular, experienced a sharp drop in the number of active dyads from 2001 to 2005. Civil wars in Asia also last longer than wars in other regions. With a high number of warring dyads fighting in long wars, the expectation would be that the region would be the focus of third-party conflict management, but this is not the case. In this article, we use an original data set to take a closer look at this gap in expectations by focusing on third-party efforts in Southeast Asia between 1993 and 2004. Bilateral talks were the most common form of third-party engagement, but mediation has been the most likely form to lead to agreements between warring parties. We conclude the article with a discussion of the policy implications of this research.     

The politics and economics of auction design in the market for sulfur dioxide pollution

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 aim to create a market in emissions of sulfur dioxide from power plants by distributing a fixed number of tradable pollution permits called “allowances,” and by providing for the auction of a small fraction of the total number of allowances. This article describes potential inefficiencies in this market and how an auction could enhance the market. It shows that the method by which allowances are “bundled together” for auction is an important efficiency-related element of auction design. The article also examines the politics of auction design and how equity goals strongly shaped the design ultimately adopted by Congress. Finally, some implications are suggested for the role of policy analysis in the legislative process.     

论作为科学的法学的不可或缺性——1966年4月20日在柏林法学会的演讲

本刊2004年第1期曾发表了现在德国弗莱堡大学求学的赵阳先生译的,19世纪德国著名法学家基尔希曼的《作为科学的法学的无价值性》一文。此文当时曾在德国法学界引起轩然大波,基尔希曼那句被人引用了千百次的名言,实际成了确认和否认作为科学的法学的实际价值的核心表达。德国法学界当然不乏对基尔希曼的声讨笔伐,但是似乎也没有留下什么能和基氏文章等量齐观的论辩力作。此处发表的同一译者翻译的拉伦茨的《论作为科学的法学的不可或缺性》,应是一篇直接应对基氏之文的反命题力作,不过这已经是在100多年之后了。这篇文章是在拉伦茨的一次演讲稿的基础上形成的,它本身就表明对于法学价值的认识直到现在仍然是仁者见仁,智者见智。本刊刊发此文,为的是使这个可能永远没有完结,但又永远不会影响法学存续下去的论争在此形成一个代表性的对局,以使读者从两种不同观点的对弈中领其要旨和奥秘。     

Big Data in Public Affairs

This article offers an overview of the conceptual, substantive, and practical issues surrounding “big data” to provide one perspective on how the field of public affairs can successfully cope with the big data revolution. Big data in public affairs refers to a combination of administrative data collected through traditional means and large‐scale data sets created by sensors, computer networks, or individuals as they use the Internet. In public affairs, new opportunities for real‐time insights into behavioral patterns are emerging but are bound by safeguards limiting government reach through the restriction of the collection and analysis of these data. To address both the opportunities and challenges of this emerging phenomenon, the authors first review the evolving canon of big data articles across related fields. Second, they derive a working definition of big data in public affairs. Third, they review the methodological and analytic challenges of using big data in public affairs scholarship and practice. The article concludes with implications for public affairs.     

The making of an expert detective: the role of experience in English and Norwegian police officers’ investigative decision-making

Biased decision-making in criminal investigations can impede or arrest the progress of justice. Previous research has not systematically addressed the effects of professional experience on the quality of detectives’ decision-making. Using a quasi-experimental design, this study compared the quality of investigative decisions made by experienced detectives and novice police officers in two countries with markedly different models for the development of investigative expertise (England and Norway). Participants (N?=?124) were presented with two semi-fictitious cases and were asked to report all relevant investigative hypotheses and necessary investigative actions in each case. The quality of participants’ responses was gauged against a gold standard established by a panel of senior homicide experts. In the English sample, experienced detectives vastly outperformed novice police officers in the number of reported gold-standard investigative hypotheses and actions. In the Norwegian sample, however, experienced detectives did not perform any better than novices. We argue that English (vs. Norwegian) detectives may benefit more from professional experience due to their Professionalising Investigation Programme and a nationwide accreditation program, requiring them to engage in extensive standardized training, systematic evaluation and synchronized development. In contrast, Norway lacks such requirements. Methodological limitations and implications for police training and accreditation policies are discussed.     

Regulation of Space Weapons: Ensuring Stability and Continued Use of Outer Space

The use of outer space continues to grow and is becoming more congested, competitive, and contested. This results in an increased need to ensure its protection. Existing international laws do not adequately regulate debris-causing space weapons and only provide restrictions for weapons of mass destruction. This article argues that there is a valid need to regulate space weapons, given the destabilizing effects of space weapons and the overall threat to the space environment. The article culminates with recommended courses of action for how to regulate space weapons.     

IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL? POST‐CONFLICT STATEBUILDING,PEACEBUILDING, AND THE GOOD GOVERNANCE AGENDA IN TIMOR‐LESTE

Statebuilding after conflict often entails liberal peacebuilding measures. The end of the UN mission in post‐conflict Timor‐Leste in December 2012 provides a unique opportunity to investigate statebuilding in practice. The liberal peacebuilding agenda has met with stiff academic resistance—mainly from the critical theorist camp—and is questioned as an appropriate measure of …statebuilding success. We deploy instead the good governance (GG) agenda as a hybrid local‐liberal guide. Drawing on field work, interviews, and secondary documents, we investigate what we see as four key, intertwined and overlapping aspects of GG: state capacity including the establishment of a state bureaucracy, participation and the engagement of civil society, institution building and rule of law, and corruption control and transparency. We note GG provides a useful policy heuristic, while abstract “one‐size‐fits‐all” liberal peacebuilding models, which avoid the complexities of machinery of government issues, the time taken to develop institutions, and historical and contextual environments of countries, are likely to face severe problems. New states may be dependent on external forces to maintain monopoly of violence. The reversibility and uncertainty of statebuilding and the decades‐long commitment needed by international agencies are noted. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Looking toward 2000, and beyond: Some developmental tendencies in organizations

Based on our combined readings of partially overlapping literatures, and spiced by our consulting experience and instructional work with employees at all levels, this essay identifies 14 developmental tendencies that seem to have a reasonable chance of becoming dominant features of our exploring organizational landscapes. The effort can be labelled “future scan,” with the focal length varying from tendencies that are already observable in numbers of cases to those that seem noteworthy despite their rarity.