On the consequences of ignoring genetic influences in criminological research

Purpose

Many criminological scholars explore the social causes of crime while giving little consideration to the possibility that genetic factors underlie the observed associations. Indeed, the standard social science method (SSSM) assumes genetic influences do not confound the association between X and Y. Yet, a nascent stream of evidence has questioned the validity of this approach by revealing many criminological variables are at least partially affected by genetic influences. As a result, a substantial proportion of the literature may be misspecified due to uncontrolled genetic factors. No effort has been made to directly estimate the extent to which genetic confounding has biased the associations presented in criminological studies.

Methods

The present study seeks to address this issue by drawing on simulated datasets.

Results/Conclusions

Results suggest genetic confounding may account for a negligible portion of the relationship between X and Y when their correlation (r_yx) is larger than the correlation between genetic factors and Y (i.e., r_yx > r_yg). Genetic confounding appears to be much more problematic when the correlation between X and Y is in the moderate-to-small range (e.g., r_yx = .20) and the genetic effect is in the moderate-to-large range (e.g., r_yg ≥ .30).     

Do Online Election Campaigns Win Votes? The 2007 Australian “YouTube” Election

Studies of Web use during elections have focused mainly on the content of Web sites and on the major factors driving parties' and candidates' adoption of the technology. Evaluations of the electoral impact of Web campaigns have been more limited. This article examines the nature and extent of Web use by voters and parties in the 2007 Australian federal election, focusing particularly on the consequences of Web 2.0 campaigning for candidate vote share. The findings show differing levels of commitment to older and newer e-campaigning technology across parties and their supporters and significant electoral advantages are associated with minor parties candidates using Web 2.0 campaign tools. The results confirm existing studies' findings about the impact of Web campaigns on contemporary elections, but that these effects are moderated by the type of Web tools used and party using them.     

Is it Better to be a Boy? A Disaggregated Outlay Equivalent Analysis of Gender Bias in Papua New Guinea

The demographic evidence of gender bias in many countries has provided an impetus for finding ways to study the status of women in developing countries. Because of the lack of accurate intra-household data, Deaton [1989 Deaton, A. 1989. Looking for Boy–Girl Discrimination in Household Expenditure Data. World Bank Economic Review, Vol.3, No.1: pp.1–15 [Google Scholar]] introduced a method for using household expenditure data to infer discrimination in the allocation of goods between boys and girls. Few studies of discrimination using the method, however, have detected bias even though alternative indicators suggest it is a serious problem. In this paper, we study the case of Papua New Guinea, a country in which there are many indicators of severe gender bias. Discrimination in the allocation of goods between boys and girls within households in Papua New Guinea is examined using Deaton's outlay-equivalent ratio method. Adding a boy to the household reduces expenditure on adult goods by as much as would a nine-tenths reduction in total outlay per member, but girls have no effect on adult goods expenditure. The hypothesis of Haddad and Reardon [1993 Haddad, L and Reardon, T. 1993. Gender Bias in the Allocation of Resource within Households in Burkina Faso: a Disaggregated Outlay Equivalent Analysis. Journal of Development Studies, Vol.29, No.2: pp.260–76 [Google Scholar]] that gender bias is inversely related to the importance of female labour in agricultural production is not supported. Sensitivity analysis shows that bias in rural areas occurs equally regardless of the age of the household head, while bias against girls may be less in regions of the country that have ethnic groups which practice matrilineal descent.     

Godparenthood: driving local solidarity in Northern France in the Early Modern Era. The example of Aubervilliers families in the sixteenth–eighteenth centuries

This article studies the choice of godparents in Aubervilliers, a French catholic rural parish near Paris, during the Early Modern Era. At the turn of the sixteenth century, godparenthood essentially served to extend social ties. Vertical godparenthood was quite visible, at least with regards to ‘elite’ local residents. The shift toward kin godparenthood happened over the long term, with a clear acceleration in the second half of the eighteenth century. A second evolution was the result of the Council of Trent. In the north of France, shifts from the ternary model of godparenthood to the godmother/godfather system at the beginning of the seventeenth century increased the proportion of elites amongst the godparents selected. This would indicate a strengthening of the clientele model of godparenthood in the seventeenth century, as suggested by Alfani's works on Italy. Finally, godparenthood was gender-sensitive. In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, godmothers from the maternal side were greater in number than those from the paternal side, while godfathers from the paternal side were greater in number that those from the maternal side. Above all, the sex of the christened child took on a decisive dimension at the time when choices became more family-focused in the eighteenth century. This new consideration of the child's gender would seem to indicate a shift in the concept of the tie created at the time of the baptism. The intergenerational link between godchildren and godparents would take on new significance, in contrast to the relationship between parents and godparents that proved so crucial at the beginning of the Early Modern Era.     

Time to vote?

Despite the centrality of voting costs to the paradox of voting, little effort has been made to measure these costs accurately, outside of a few spatially limited case studies. In this paper, we apply Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools to validated national election survey data from New Zealand. We calculate distance and travel time by road from the place of residence to the nearest polling place and combine our time estimate with imputed wages for all sample members. Using this new measure of the opportunity cost of voting to predict turnout at the individual level, we find that small increases in the opportunity costs of time can have large effects in reducing voter turnout.