The sketch of Brazil’s grand strategy under the Workers’ Party (2003–2016): Domestic and international constraints

After passage of the 1988 Constitution of Brazil, successive democratic governments worked to build bridges between the nation’s foreign policy and its defence strategy, thus fostering a dialogue among administrations and constituencies under the aegis of the rule of law. It was under the Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff administrations that Brazil laid out a grand strategy, implementation of which was interrupted by the controversial impeachment proceedings of 2016. The argument unfolds from a consideration of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics as key structural variables in analysing the challenges faced in the conception and implementation of its grand strategy. The article is organised into two sections: (1) The sketch of a grand strategy: when Brazil’s foreign and defence policies converged; (2) An ambition frustrated? Or, the impact of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics on the conception and implementation of its grand strategy.     

Mr. Smith and the economy: the influence of economic conditions on individual legislator voting

This paper estimates the influence of macroeconomic conditions on individual legislator voting over time. Previous work shows legislator voting to be stable over careers. In this paper, voting on an ideological issue space (ADA scores) and a fiscal issue space (NTU scores), from 1976 to 2002, exhibits significant short-term cyclicality with economic conditions. Individual legislators polarize by party in response to rising unemployment, and converge in response to rising inflation. As legislators accumulate tenure, they become more ideologically conservative but more fiscally liberal. Results are also reported on presidential party, divided government, and region. All results are weaker in the Senate than in the House.     

Converging Divergence: the Diffusion of the Green State in Latin America

Global processes of policy diffusion result in different types of state development. A broad view of environmentalist reform in Latin America easily reads as top-down diffusion of blueprints and institutional convergence. But such a thesis is reductionist and ultimately misleading, case studies demonstrate. First, diffusion mechanisms matter for divergence: when normative and mimetic mechanisms are relatively strong vis-à-vis coercive forces, formal state change is followed by more meaningful real state change; when the coercive mechanism rules unmatched, green state change ends up being formal for the most part. Secondly, institutional entrepreneurs face shifting opportunity structures for political change; because these opportunities are never uniform, national experiences will differ. Thirdly, national institutional environments provide contrasting domestic resources and cultures for the building of green states; legacy, in short, will condition translation by entrepreneurs. A bridging institutionalist framework helps us make sense of “converging divergence”.     

Family farming in Brazil: evolution between the 1996 and 2006 agricultural censuses

This article compares the main findings of Brazilian agricultural census data of 1996 with the same of 2006 by applying the methodology known as ‘FAO/INCRA’ (Food Agriculture Organization/Instituto Nacional de Colonização e Reforma Agrária) which allows the characterization of family farms in relation to the total universe of farms. In this comparison several variables are shown, including the share of family farming in the total value of production, in the total number of farms, utilization of modern technology and partial factor productivity. Census data shows that family farming has changed from 37.91 percent of total production value to 36.11 percent during a decade of strong expansion of agriculture as a whole, demonstrating the economic relevance of this segment which, besides producing food, is integrated in the most important productive agricultural chains of the Brazilian agribusiness. Family farming is a heterogeneous segment, with different sub-segments. During the studied period of ten years the most rich of these sub-segments (A) has increased participation in total production, while the poorer sub-segments (C and D) have only grown in absolute terms without a corresponding increase in production.     

The World Development Report 2008: inconsistencies,silences, and the myth of ‘win-win’ scenarios

The World Development Report 2008 (WDR-2008) on agriculture and development has been received with much expectation and controversy. This paper welcomes some aspects of the WDR-2008 that help us reinvigorate some debates on agricultural development, so far marginalised in international development policy agendas. The paper, however, focuses on some critical problems in the report and the World Bank's stance on agriculture. First, there are tensions between advocacy and research and between the World Bank's rhetoric and operational realities. Secondly, the report suffers from the usual adherence to superficial win-win scenarios that mask conflict of interest and power relations. Thirdly, the WDR-2008 is caught in a tension between neo-populist pro-small farmer views and ‘modernist’ pro-agribusiness stances. Fourthly, the analysis of agricultural development in isolation from broader development processes and especially without a systematic analysis of industrialisation and agriculture–industry relations seriously limits the analytical and empirical value of the report.     

Vote-buying crime reports in Mexico: magnitude and correlates

Vote-buying is a significant problem in developing democracies. If reports of vote-buying crimes are high, results may be challenged by competing candidates in electoral courts, and violent political confrontation may erupt. Also, if not prosecuted, there is danger of vote-buying becoming a common feature of electoral processes. This study assessed the magnitude and correlates of vote-buying crime reports during the 2006 elections in Mexico. It made use of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) survey on the Protection of Federal Social Programs of 2006 (ENAPP). Results showed that 8.8% of the survey respondents nationwide who were not beneficiaries of any federal social program reported to have been offered something in exchange of their vote, that is, a vote-buying crime under the legislation of Mexico. Ordinal logistic regression showed five independent correlates of vote-buying crime reports: Years of schooling, Indian language speaking, municipal marginality, population size, and PRD versus PAN governed municipalities. The paper discusses the reasons and consequences by suggesting other aspects to consider for future research.     

The regulatory style of environmental governance in China: the case of EIA regulation in Shanghai*

The body of literature that examines how institutional contexts affect environmental governance in advanced industrial countries finds that style of environmental regulation is country‐specific. In the pluralist form of democracy like the United States, environmental policy formulation involves bargaining and compromises among interest groups and regulation enforcement through relatively formal and legalistic means. In the corporatist form of democracy like Sweden and Great Britain, in contrast, environmental policies are more accommodating to divergent societal interests and tend to be less formal in their enforcement. These variations in regulatory style have been attributed to differences in basic constitutional structures, regime types and cultures. How do institutional contexts affect the style of environmental regulation in China, which is both a non‐democratic and developing country? This article examines China's regulatory style by focusing on environmental impact assessment (EIA) regulation in Shanghai. The Shanghai EIA system is analyzed in terms of policy ideology, policy content, regulatory process, public participation and policy consequences. It is shown that China's being a single‐party regime with a ‘rule of persons’ tradition has heavily shaped its environmental governance. Based on Shanghai experience, China's style can be characterized as formal in requirement, agency‐dominated in the regulatory process, legalistic in enforcement, and informal politics as the substance of regulation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of “China Bashing” on Sino-American Relations

Many scholars argue that a sizable share of the news about China published in U.S. newspapers engages in ??China Bashing.?? This paper quantifies the extent of the bashing and examines its effect on Sino-American relations. To measure bashing, I develop an index based on the count of articles in major U.S. newspapers that are related to China and also touch on one or more of the following issues: human rights, Tibet, democracy, child labor, and repression. I repeat this process for newspapers from Australia and New Zealand to net out ??fundamental?? news. To examine the effect of the bashing on Sino-American relations, I use the China-US relations score of Yan et al. (Zhongwai guanxi dingliang yuce, [?????????????; Quantitative Forecasts of China??s Foreign Relations]. Beijing, China: Shijie heshi chubanshe, 2009, Zhongwai guanxi jianlan 1950-2005??Zhongguo yu daguo guanxi dingliang hengliang [??????????1950-2005???й???????????????; China??s Foreign Relations with Major Powers by the Numbers 1950-2005]. Beijing: Gaodeng jiaoyu chubanshe, 2010) and estimate a dynamic transfer model with the constructed bashing index, as well as other control variables. The results indicate that a one-standard-deviation shock in bashing leads to a 0.038 point decline in Yan??s Sino-American index after about four months. The results further imply that the cumulative long-run effect of persistent China bashing is equivalent to about 50?% of the decline in Sino-American relations that followed the U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade on May 7, 1999, the worst shock to Sino-American relations during the sample period, 1990 to 2010.     

The Making of Policy: Institutionalized or Not?

This article attempts to build bridges in the formal study of policymaking across polities of different degrees of institutional development. It explores the reasons why policymaking is fairly institutionalized in some polities but not in others. It suggests extending standard models of institutionalized policymaking to allow for a wider set of actions, including the threat of violence or of damage to the economy. It engages the discussion of institutions as rules and institutions as equilibria, delivering multiple equilibria with different degrees of institutionalization. The likelihood of institutionalized policymaking increases as the cost of alternative political actions increases, as the damage these alternatives cause decreases, and as the economy becomes wealthier. In cases in which the distribution of de jure political power is more asymmetric, it is more likely to observe use of alternative political technologies as well as low degrees of institutionalization.     

Effectiveness of comparison overlays generated with DentalPrint software in bite mark analysis

Validation studies of the new DentalPrint software were carried out with experimental bite marks in pigskin. The bite marks were digitally photographed according to the ABFO guidelines for evidence collection. Dental casts used in the experiment were scanned in 3D and 2D, and comparison overlays were generated using DentalPrint and Adobe Photoshop software, respectively. Digitized photographs of the experimental bite marks and the biting edges obtained in the overlays were compared by two different examiners to analyze the impact of training and experience with the two methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence intervals for each cutoff point were calculated. The expert examiner using DentalPrint obtained the best results, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.76 (SE=0.057; CI at 95%=0.652-0.876). Fairly high specificity values were found for DentalPrint, and the best results were obtained for the cutoff value that discriminated between the examiner's response "biter" and the rest of the possible (specificity 97.9%, CI at 95%=93.2%-99.6%). Therefore, the results presented here indicate that DentalPrint is a useful, accurate tool for forensic purposes, although further research on the comparison process is needed to enhance the validity of bite mark analysis.