Running for office again: evidence from Portuguese municipal elections

Using a data set that covers all Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1979–2005, this study performs an empirical analysis of the economic determinants of mayors’ decisions to run for another term in office. The literature on the subject is mainly centered on the United States and, as far as we know, there are no papers addressing the economic factors influencing those choices. Probit panel estimations show that local economic conditions matter more than the national or regional economic environment. The results also confirm that political variables are important and that they influence the likelihood of seeking reelection in much the same way as they affect vote and popularity functions.     

Distributive Politics and Regional Development: Assessing the Territorial Distribution of Turkey’s Public Investment

Turkey is often perceived as a country with low bureaucratic capacity and prone to political manipulation and ‘pork-barrel’. This article tests whether this is the case, by analysing the extent to which politics, rather than equity and efficiency criteria, have determined the geographical allocation of public investment across the 81 provinces of Turkey between 2005 and 2012. The results show that although the Turkish government has indeed channelled public expenditures to reward its core constituencies, socioeconomic factors remained the most relevant predictors of investment. Moreover, in contrast to official regional development policy principles, we uncover the concentration of public investment in areas with comparatively higher levels of development. We interpret this as the state bureaucracy’s intentional strategy of focussing on efficiency by concentrating resources on ‘the better off among the most in need’.     

Debt arrears in Latin America: Do political variables matter?

Political instability and debt problems characterise Latin America in the last two decades. This article estimated a logit model of debt arrears including economic as well as political variables. Our results suggested that both economic and political indicators affected debt repayment in Latin America during 1971–86. We also cast a shadow on the viewpoint that authoritarian and military regimes have an advantage over democratically elected governments with regard to debt related issues.     

Radicalization in Prisons? Field Research in 25 Spanish Prisons

This article has two principal objectives: (1) to study the behavioral dimensions of Muslim prisoners which predict their Islamist radicalism and (2) to study whether the behavior manifested by them is higher in prisons with a greater concentration of Muslims and a higher presence of prisoners convicted for Islamist terrorism than in prisons with fewer Muslims and no convicted Islamist terrorists. We conclude that some Spanish prisons may provide favorable social environments for jihadist radicalism and that the questionnaire utilized is a useful diagnostic tool for evaluating the magnitude of this phenomenon.