Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.     

Are there population differences in minutiae frequencies? A comparative study of two Argentinian population samples and one Spanish sample

In recent years, both scientific and judicial sources have highlighted the need for more knowledge about minutiae variability, in order to improve their statistical application to fingerprint identification. In line with this trend toward improving our knowledge of this subject, the aim of the present study was to calculate the frequency with which 20 types of minutiae appeared in 2780 fingerprint impressions obtained from 278 individuals from two Argentinian population samples (100 individuals from Ramal and 178 from Puna-Quebrada). The different types of minutiae were located, identified, and quantified visually in two areas on the fingerprint, the inside and outside of a circle, the radius of which cut fifteen ridges perpendicularly, starting from the center cut of the axes defining the sectors. The non-equiprobability found in both population samples for the different minutiae types studied demonstrated that the evidential weight provided by these characteristics is not the same when applied in identification processes, whether used quantitatively (numerical standard) or qualitatively (holistic method). The results obtained for both populations were compared statistically with those published previously for a Spanish population sample, which had been collected using the same methodology. This comparison has enabled us to demonstrate, for the first time, the existence of significant differences between populations in minutiae frequencies, independently from the main pattern type.     

Note – Walking on Solid Ground: A Replication Study of ‘Housing Health and Happiness’

This note summarises our replication study ‘Housing, Health, and Happiness’, henceforth HHH2009, which constitutes an important paper in the literature of housing and slum upgrading. The original authors conduct a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of ‘Piso Firme’, an intervention that replaced in-house dirt floors with cement in Mexico. We conduct a Pure Replication (PR), a Measurement and Estimation Analysis (MEA), and a Theory of Change Analysis (TCA). In our PR, we did not find any major discrepancy with the original study. In the MEA, we generally find the results to be strongly robust to different types of alternative analysis. Finally, in TCA we explore a dimension that was not reported on the published version of the study and found that households with high initial levels of cement-floor coverage benefitted significantly less from Piso Firme’s intervention. These findings are discussed in greater detail on International Initiative for Impact Evaluation’s (3ie) working paper version.     

Population genetics of the STR loci HUMCSF1PO, HUMF13A01, HUMFES/FPS and D12S391 in Asturias (northern Spain)

In order to use genetic loci in forensic identity testing, some population data are needed. This paper presents a report of allele frequency data for the loci HUMCSF1PO, HUMF13A01, HUMFES/FPS and D12S391 in a population sample from Asturias (northern Spain).No deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was detected in any of the four markers investigated and there was no evidence of association between the alleles of these loci. Statistical analysis was also carried out to obtain some parameters of medico-legal interest and comparative studies were carried out with other populations studied to date for these loci. The Asturian sample does not differ substantially from other Caucasian and Spanish populations.     

Validation of an ion-trap gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric method for the determination of cocaine and metabolites and cocaethylene in post mortem whole blood

The coingestion of cocaine (COC) and ethanol is a very frequent occurrence and is known to increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. The formation occurs of a transesterification product, the cocaethylene (CE), which is even more toxic than cocaine. In order to study the role of ethanol as an agent of interaction in lethal cocaine intoxication, and to establish its influence in post mortem cocaine concentrations, an ion-trap gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric method (GC-MS) was validated to quantify simultaneously the agent and its biotransformation products, benzoylecgonine (BE), ecgoninemethylester (EME) and the 'biomarker' of the interaction, the CE present in whole blood. Deuterated internal standards were added to 2 ml of post mortem whole blood and extracted in Bond Elut Certify columns. The residues were evaporated and derivatized with N-methyl-N-t-butyldimethylsilyltrifluoroacetamide (MTBSTFA). Detection was performed by electron impact ionization. The monitored ions were m/z 82/85 for EME-tert-butyldimethylsilyl (TBDMS)/EME-d3-TBDMS; m/z 182/185 for COC/COC-d3; m/z 196/199 for CE/CE-d3 and m/z 282/285 for BE-TBDMS/BE-d3-TBDMS. The limits of detection and quantification were found to be 25 ng and 50 ng ml(-1), respectively, for COC and CE, and 50 and 100 ng ml(-1) for BE and EME. Accuracy was different for each of the compounds, varying from 65 to 98%. The dynamic range of the assay was 50-2000 ng ml(-1).