A Windows-based software for common paternity and sibling analyses

A new Windows-based freeware for kinship analysis from DNA data is presented. This software can be used to calculate likelihood ratios and probabilities of paternity in trio and motherless cases, as well as in cases when a parent is lacking but there are data from the grandparents. It can also be used to compute the probability of two subjects being full-brothers or half-brothers.     

Alcohol use among fatally injured drivers in Spain

Blood from 285 fatally injured drivers in Northern Spain was collected and tested for the presence of alcohol and drugs. Alcohol was detected in 50.5% of all fatalities. Alcohol alone was detected in 44.2% of all samples and in the remaining 6.3% another substance was found together with alcohol. Blood alcohol concentration was classified in different levels. It has been observed that in 35.4% of the cases the blood alcohol level was > or = 0.8 g/l, the legal limit in Spain for car drivers. Alcohol together with other substances was encountered in 18 cases, with medication in 22.2% (4 out of 18), alcohol with illegal drugs in 66.6% of the cases (12 out of 18), and alcohol with medicines and illegal drugs in 11.1% (2 out of 18). Cocaine was the most commonly detected drug. The study shows how widespread the incidence of a high level of alcohol concentration among drivers involved in fatal accidents in Spain.     

An unusual case of railway suicide

A rare case of suicide in which the victim had been lying along the railway track in a supine position and with extended extremities is described. The wheels of a train caused longitudinal hemisection with complete evisceration. Epidemiological data on train suicides are given and the relationship between this method of suicide and mental illnesses and consumption of alcohol are discussed.     

From Porto Rico to Puerto Rico: Citizenship,Race and the Politics of Worthiness

The English-language text of the 1898 Treaty of Paris, the accord conceding Puerto Rico to the United States, misspelled the island's name as Porto Rico. The treaty's ratification entrenched the error in US law and prompted a decades-long campaign to restore the territory's original name. More than a comedy of errors, this incident exposes conflicting interpretations of US citizenship and the worthiness of different sets of citizens. Puerto Ricans discovered that the statutory citizenship they acquired was attenuated by their perceived worthiness: a status limited by their membership of the so-called Spanish race.     

Party Polarization and the Business Cycle in the United States

A large literature has studied the trend of greaterpolarization between Democrats and Republicans in Congress.This paper empirically examines the extent to which inflationand unemployment explain cyclical movements ofpolarization over time. An informal application of thestandard Downsian spatial competition model of partiesgenerates the following relationships, ceteris paribus: (1)inflation should be associated with policy convergence, (2)unemployment should be associated with polarization, (3) theeffect of unemployment on polarization should be larger inmagnitude than the effect of inflation on convergence, and (4)the effect of unemployment on polarization should be strongerin the House than in the Senate. We estimate the relationshipbetween vote records and business cycle conditions over the1947–1999 period using a GLS model with varying lags. Ourresults are broadly consistent with these business cyclehypotheses of polarization, though greater support is found inHouse data than in Senate data.     

The political affiliation effect on state credit risk

Past research largely has ignored the effects of political parties on states’ default risks. This paper addresses that question by analyzing the response of credit spreads to weekly polling data from 17 gubernatorial elections between 2009 and 2012, during the 6 months prior to Election Day. The findings are that political affiliation has a significant effect on states’ default risks. The estimated effect of electing a Republican governor is a 6% reduction in the credit spread of the state. The effect prevails regardless of the party in control of the state legislature, and it is larger when gubernatorial elections are contested closely. Set in the context of case law, the paper links higher tax levels to greater credit risk. Moreover, an analysis of the candidates’ campaign promises suggests that stronger positions against tax increases are associated with less default risks. The results of the paper are therefore consistent with the empirical evidence suggesting that Republicans prefer lower taxes.     

The Electoral Dynamics of Human Development

This paper analyses the impact of elections, partisan and political support effects on the dynamics of human development in a panel of 82 countries over the period 1980–2013. A Generalised Method of Moments(GMM) estimator is employed and the results point out to the presence of an electoral cycle in the growth rate of human development. Majority governments also influence it, but no evidence is found regarding partisan effects. The electoral cycles have proved to be stronger in non-OECD countries, in countries with less frequent elections, with lower levels of income and human development, in presidential and non-plurality systems and in proportional representation regimes.     

What Kinds of Trade Liberalization Agreements Do People in Developing Countries Want?

One of the most striking developments in the global economy in the past decades is the rapid proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), with many of them concluded among or with participation of developing countries. On the presumption that current popular debates on trade policy are not so much about whether citizens want free trade but rather what kinds of trade liberalization they want, we examine individual trade policy preferences with regard to PTAs that can vary in content along several dimensions. To that end we carried out conjoint choice experiments embedded in representative surveys in three developing countries that differ strongly in income levels, political system, and trade liberalization history: Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. We conceptualize trade policy preferences as preferences over the scale and scope of trade liberalization, environmental and labor standards, and labor market access (migration). Two main findings emerge. First, non-economic considerations, such as sympathy/antipathy toward particular countries and environmental and labor rights concerns influence citizens’ preferences at least as much as factors based on standard economic logic. Second, preferences over particular facets (attributes) of trade liberalization, that is PTA content, are surprisingly consistent across countries, despite strong differences in macro-economic and political context.