Polarization and Policy: The Politics of Public‐Sector Pensions

For decades, America's state and local governments have promised their workers increasingly generous pensions but failed to fully fund them, producing a fiscal problem of staggering proportions. In this article, we examine the politics of public pensions. While mainstream theoretical ideas in the American politics literature would suggest the pension issue should be polarized, with Democrats pushing for generous pensions over Republican resistance, we develop an argument—rooted in more traditional theoretical work by Schattschneider, Lowi, Wilson, and others—implying that both parties should be expected to support generous pensions during normal times and that only after the onset of the Great Recession, which expanded the scope of conflict, should the parties begin to diverge. Using a new data set of state legislators' votes on hundreds of pension bills passed between 1999 and 2011, we carry out an empirical analysis that supports these expectations.     

Quantifying the Accuracy of Forensic Examiners in the Absence of a “Gold Standard”

This study asked whether latent class modeling methods and multiple ratings of the same cases might permit quantification of the accuracy of forensic assessments. Five evaluators examined 156 redacted court reports concerning criminal defendants who had undergone hospitalization for evaluation or restoration of their adjudicative competence. Evaluators rated each defendant’s Dusky-defined competence to stand trial on a five-point scale as well as each defendant’s understanding of, appreciation of, and reasoning about criminal proceedings. Having multiple ratings per defendant made it possible to estimate accuracy parameters using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, despite the absence of any “gold standard” for the defendants’ true competence status. Evaluators appeared to be very accurate, though this finding should be viewed with caution.     

Older Youth in Extended Out-of-home Care

The purpose of this study is to examine the permanency experiences of older youth, age 18–21 in out-of-home placements and placement characteristics that influence age of exit from child welfare. Findings suggest a difference between age groups with more 18-year old youth exiting to emancipation than youth who exit at age 21. A higher number of spells in care and a higher number of placement changes during the last spell were associated with exit to emancipation. Additional study findings suggests that youth who leave care before the age of 21 may be more vulnerable than youth who stay through age 21. Implications for practice are discussed.     

The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.     

Some notes on the validation of VRS-SO static scores

ABSTRACT

The present study was a psychometric examination of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003 Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan. [Google Scholar]). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan) static item scores in a Canadian multisite sample of 668 treated adult male sexual offenders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of 13 nonredundant Static-99R and VRS-SO static items generated three factors labelled Youthful Aggression, Sexual Criminality, and General Criminality. The factor and total scores converged with Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic factor scores. Scores on the VRS-SO static items, EFA-derived factors, and total score each significantly predicted 5- and 10-year sexual, violent, and general recidivism through ROC analyses. Cox regression survival analyses showed all three factors uniquely predicted sexual recidivism to varying degrees in the overall sample; however, only Youthful Aggression and General Criminality uniquely significantly predicted violent and general recidivism in the overall sample and among sexual offender subgroups. Implications for theory, clinical practice, and instrument refinement are discussed.     

China and Europe: engagement,multipolarity and strategy

Abstract

Ever closer relations between China and Europe over the last decade have sparked speculation about an emerging axis or balance of power vis-à-vis the United States. China, the European Union and its key member states have expressed a preference for a more balanced international order based on multilateral institutions. Despite a rapid and extensive expansion in economic and political relations between China and the European Union, there is no evidence for balancing against the United States in strategic areas. Rather, the variations in the positions of China, the European Union and the United States can more accurately be seen as policy or interest bargaining. Because the European Union does not share US security interests in the Asia-Pacific region, the European Union and its key member states can seem at variance with the US position on China. Bargaining over the failed attempt to lift the European Union's arms embargo against China shows that the European Union and the United States are not so far apart on strategic issues in the Asia-Pacific.     

Abstracts of papers given at the 25th annual conference of the Scottish legal history group

Modern Legal History. A. H. Manchester. London. 1980. Butterworths. xxv and 419 pp (incl. Index). £14.50 cased, £9.75 limp.

Introduction historique au droit. John Gilissen. Brussels. 1979. Emile Bruylant. 756 pp. 2200 Bfr. (2075 Bfr. abroad).

Legal Evolution: The Story of an Idea. Peter Stein. Cambridge. 1980. Cambridge University Press. xi and 131 pp (incl. Index). £15.00 cased.

Judecata Domneasca în Tara Româneasca ?i Moldova (1611–1831) (Princely Justice in Wallachia and Moldavia, 1611–1831) Part I. Judicial Organisation, 1611–1740 by V. A. Georgescu and P. Strihan. Editura Academiei Republicii Socialiste România, Bucharest, 1979, 218 pp. Lei 17.

Bizantul ?i Institutiile Române?ti pîna la Mijlocul Secolului al XVIII lea (Byzantium and Romanian Institutions until the mid‐18th century) by V. A. Georgescu. Editura Academiei Republicii Socialiste Romania, Bucharest, 1979, 296 pp. Lei 22.50.

TUC: The Growth of a Pressure Group 1868–1976. Ross M. Martin. Oxford. 1980. Clarendon Press. xiii and 394 pp (incl. Index). £14.00 cased.     

Boundaries beyond borders: Delineating democratic 'peoples' in a globalizing world

This article analyzes the result of attempting to enforce democracy in Haiti. The objective of the international intervention, as stated in United Nations Security Council Resolution 940, was the return of democracy. However, the process in Haiti after the intervention was riddled with problems. The article establishes the Haitian attitudes towards what happened and shows that the type of governance that has been put in place is not what they had expected. It argues that although the international community seems to consider the intervention a success, the objective of the United Nations Resolution has not been reached, because of the international community's unwillingness to consolidate the essential factors upon which to build a democratic society.