Rolling the Dice on Foreclosure Prevention: Differences Across Mortgage Servicers in Loan Modifications and Loan Cure Rates

Mortgage servicing has garnered increased attention since the foreclosure crisis. As the interface between borrowers and investors, servicers make the decision to either grant a loan modification or to foreclose. This study examines servicer loan modification practices for a national sample of delinquent subprime loans, and assesses the extent to which those practices are associated with foreclosures. The research reveals significant differences across servicers in loan cure rates, which are related to servicers’ propensity to offer loan modifications and to the level of relief offered to borrowers. The observed differences across servicers and the implications of this heterogeneity for foreclosure prevention underscore the importance of additional data, research, and policies that can increase the uniformity and transparency of servicing practices.     

Retrospective voting and party support at elections: credit and blame for government and opposition

Retrospective voting is arguably one of the most important mechanisms of representative democracy, and whether or not the public holds the government accountable for its policy performance has been extensively studied. In this paper, we test whether retrospective voting extends to parties in the opposition, that is whether and how parties’ past performance evaluations affect their vote, regardless of whether they were in government or in opposition. Taking advantage of a rich set of questions embedded in a representative German national elections panel, we update our knowledge on the retrospective voting mechanism by modeling retrospective voting at the party level. The findings indicate that the incumbent status is not the only criterion for retrospective voting, ultimately suggesting that both government and opposition parties can expect credit and blame for their conduct and this should provide some impetus for responsive performance of all parties.     

The Influence of Individual and Partner Characteristics on the Perpetration of Intimate Partner Violence in Young Adult Relationships

This study examines individual and partner characteristics associated with the perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV) in young adult relationships with opposite sex partners. Using data from Waves 1 and 3 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study examined 1,275 young adults’ heterosexual romantic relationships. Controlling for the effects of family and school correlates measured in adolescence, we examined the extent to which participants’ general violent behavior in young adulthood and their partners’ use of violence in their relationship influence participants’ IPV perpetration. We found that both having general violent tendencies and being a target of violence in a relationship influenced one’s likelihood of young adults perpetrating IPV. We also tested whether the overall influence of participants’ general violent behavior on IPV perpetration was moderated by their partners’ use of violence in the relationship. We found that young women’s greatest expression of violent tendencies emerged when in relationships with violent men; yet, when partnered with non-violent men, young women’s own violent tendencies did not lead to IPV. We found little evidence for the interactive effect for young men in the study. The lack of a significant interaction in the model indicated that young men’s general aggression was not conditioned on their partners’ use of physical aggression in their relationships.

Parties’ issue strategies on the drawing board: the 2017 Austrian case

Abstract

Parties may rely on different issue agendas when tailoring their electoral campaigns in an attempt to win elections. This paper compares two key party issue strategies to examine which one the victorious Austrian Peoples’ Party (ÖVP) relied on the most during the 2017 Austrian election campaign vis-à-vis its main competitors. These two key party strategies are the ‘riding-the-wave’ model, which posits that parties focus on issues that currently concern voters the most and the recent ‘issue-yield model’, which instead suggests that parties adopt strategic behaviour targeting all those issues with genuine opportunities for electoral expansion. It is found that, compared to the other main parties in the 2017 Austrian election campaign, the ÖVP was the one most clearly relying on the issue-yield approach. These results have important implications for our understanding of electoral campaigns, party’s exploitation of issue strategies, and voter representation beyond the Austrian case.     

Improving Data Quality: Actors, Incentives, and Capabilities

Devesh Kapur Centre for Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania, 3600 Market Street, Suite 560, Philadelphia, PA 19104 e-mail: dkapur{at}sas.upenn.edu e-mail: herrera{at}fas.harvard.edu (corresponding author) This paper examines the construction and use of data sets inpolitical science. We focus on three interrelated questions:How might we assess data quality? What factors shape data quality?and How can these factors be addressed to improve data quality?We first outline some problems with existing data set quality,including issues of validity, coverage, and accuracy, and wediscuss some ways of identifying problems as well as some consequencesof data quality problems. The core of the paper addresses thesecond question by analyzing the incentives and capabilitiesfacing four key actors in a data supply chain: respondents,data collection agencies (including state bureaucracies andprivate organizations), international organizations, and finally,academic scholars. We conclude by making some suggestions forimproving the use and construction of data sets. Authors' note: For generous comments at many stages in the paper,the authors would like to thank Dawn Brancati, Bear Braumoeller,Kanchan Chandra, Jorge Dominguez, Errol D'Souza, Richard Grossman,Ana Grzymala-Busse, Andrew Kydd, David Laitin, Daniel Posner,Jasjeet Sekhon, Hillel Soifer, Jessica Wallack, and Steven Wilkinsonand the Comparative Politics Research Workshop at Harvard University,and the anonymous reviewers from Political Analysis. The authorstake full responsibility for any errors. An earlier versionof this paper was presented at the American Political ScienceAssociation Annual Meetings, Boston, MA, August 2002.     

Nuclear DNA typing from ancient teeth

Because of the adverse effects that diagenesis exert on ancient skeletal remains, DNA from these samples is often compromised to the point where genetic typing can be challenging. Nevertheless, robust and reliable methods are currently available to allow successful genotyping of ancient specimens. Here we report nuclear DNA-based methods and typing strategies used to analyze 2 human skeletons from a medieval burial. Reliable DNA nuclear profiles were obtained from teeth, whereas mitochondrial DNA analyses in bones were inconclusive. A complete nuclear mini short tandem repeat profile was obtained from a well-preserved premolar, but only a partial one from the femur. Increasing the sensitivity of the polymerase chain reaction system allowed a full profile from the latter, but the presence of artifacts reinforced the idea that the interpretation of this kind of analysis must be performed with caution. The results presented here also indicate that DNA from dental pieces can be better preserved than from bones, even in the case of well-preserved long bones with thick cortical tissue such as the femurs, and have a better chance of successful genetic typing, probably because of the high degree of protection conferred to the DNA by the enamel.     

Divergent genetic strata in five Bahamian islands

Based on historical records, the genetic landscape of the Bahamian archipelago is presumed to be complex and to exhibit island-specific characteristics, yet the genetic composition of the island chain, which could corroborate or refute these past accounts, remains poorly defined. As such, the current investigation was undertaken to genetically characterize 5 Bahamian populations representing the Northwest (Grand Bahama and Abaco) and Central (Eleuthera, Exuma and Long Island) Bahamas across the 15 autosomal Identifiler loci routinely employed in forensic analyses. Altogether, our findings suggest that Bahamians are a genetically heterogeneous group, with each island sampled receiving differential contributions from African, European, East Asian and Native American sources. Even though the strongest genetic signal in all 5 collections emanates from continental Africa, inter-island differentiation is noted in both the Structure and admixture analyses. The presence of alleles not in common among the 5 insular populations also signals genetic heterogeneity among the islands of the archipelago. This is especially the case when considering the Long Island population, which exhibits statistically significant genetic differences in relation to the other Bahamian collections and the New World groups of African descent (Afro-American and Afro-Caribbean) in the G-test pair-wise comparisons, even after application of the Bonferroni adjustment.