Audience Costs and the Dynamics of War and Peace

We estimate audience costs and examine their substantive effects on the evolution of interstate disputes by using an infinitely repeated and dynamic game of crisis escalation. Unlike past efforts, our approach estimates country‐specific audience cost parameters without relying on proxy variables, such as democracy measures. Contrary to intuition, increases in a country's audience costs encourage it to initiate disputes in equilibrium because the costs serve as a commitment device during the subsequent crisis, incentivizing the country to stand firm and coercing its opponent to back down. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that larger audience costs would result in more peace worldwide, as they also discourage potential opponents from initiating disputes. Beyond regime type, we find that a free press, provisions for executive appointment or removal, and historical rivalries are also important determinants of audience costs.     

Assessing policy stability in Iraq: a fuzzy approach to?modeling preferences

The first Council of Representatives elected under the new Iraqi Constitution was unable to pass legislation required to achieve the political benchmarks set by the government. We argue that the exercise of a qualified veto by the three-member Presidency Council essentially required near unanimity among the nine parties of the governing coalition. Given the policy positions of these parties, unanimity was not possible. Our analysis makes use of a fuzzy veto players model. The placement of the government parties along a single dimension based on fuzzy preference measures derived from party text data reveals no common area of agreement.     

Being Superwoman: Low Income Mothers Surviving Problem Drinking and Intimate Partner Violence

We elucidate ways mothers think about behavior change related to heavy drinking and violent relationships. A purposive sample of 32 women, predominantly black and low income, were identified as engaging in both problem drinking on the AUDIT and experiencing severe partner violence on the Conflict Tactic Scale. Narratives from audiotaped Motivational Interviewing sessions conducted in an urban emergency department were transcribed, inductively coded and examined through the lens of feminist standpoint theory. Our analysis suggests motherhood is a powerful motivator for positive change, but multiple barriers combine to prevent self-protection and modification of adverse behaviors among this vulnerable population. Interventions to help low-income mothers dealing with relationship violence and substance abuse should also address the structural violence and substantive barriers these mothers face. Further work should examine the power of personal narratives related to being a good mother on women’s ability to improve life circumstances for themselves and their children.     

Exposure to Political Discussion in College is Associated With Higher Rates of Political Participation Over Time

While individuals who are exposed to political discussion are more politically active, analytical biases make it difficult to show evidence of causation. It is also uncertain how long the relationship between discussion and participation lasts. Here both questions are addressed with panel data collected from individuals who were randomly assigned to their college dormitories. The data show that exposure to political discussion in college leads to higher levels of participation, immediately while still in college and years into the future after graduation. As political behavior is habitual, the initial increase in participation after being exposed to political discussion is a mechanism underlying the long-run relationship between discussion and participation.