Applying a Two-Step Strategy to the Analysis of Cross-National Public Opinion Data

W. Phillips Shively Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 1414 Social Sciences Bldg. 267 19th Ave. South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 email: kjlong{at}umich.edu (corresponding author) email: shively{at}polisci.umn.edu. In recent years, large sets of national surveys with sharedcontent have increasingly been used for cross-national opinionresearch. But scholars have not yet settled on the most flexibleand efficient models for utilizing such data. We present a two-stepstrategy for such analysis that takes advantage of the factthat in such datasets each "cluster" (i.e., country sample)is large enough to sustain separate analysis of its internalvariances and covariances. We illustrate the method by examininga puzzle of comparative electoral behavior—why does turnoutdecline rather than increase with the number of parties competingin an election (Blais and Dobryzynska 1998, for example)? Thisdiscussion demonstrates the ease with which a two-step strategyincorporates confounding variables operating at different levelsof analysis. Technical appendices demonstrate that the two-stepstrategy does not lose efficiency of estimation as comparedwith a pooling strategy.     

Interviewing Children about Real and Fictitious Events: Revisiting the Narrative Elaboration Procedure

Elementary school children participated in a staged event. Two weeks later they were randomly assigned to three interview conditions: (a) a streamlined version of the Narrative Elaboration (NE) procedure involving training in the use of reminder cue cards, (b) exposure to reminder cue cards without training in their use (cue card control group), and (c) a standard interview including no NE training or exposure to reminder cue cards (standard-interview control group). Children in each interview condition were questioned about the staged event and a fictitious event to determine whether children trained in the streamlined NE procedure would provide more information about a staged event than would children in the two control groups and whether the NE interview would result in increased reporting of false information when questioned about a fictitious event. Results indicated that children questioned with the NE interview reported a greater amount of accurate, but not a greater amount of inaccurate, information during cue-card presentation for the staged event than did the cue-card control group. Analyses further indicated that the NE-interview group did not report significantly more false information about the fictitious event than did children in the two control groups. Large standard deviations for the NE-interview children's cue-card recall indicate that the streamlined NE procedure was useful for many children in reporting the staged event, but may have contributed to a small number of children providing false information for the fictitious event. Further research is being conducted to determine which children may be more likely to be helped and which children may be more likely to provide false information regarding a fictitious event.     

The Human Dimensions of Pollution Policy Implementation: Air quality in rural China

The People's Republic of China is experiencing severe air pollution with very serious public health and economic consequences. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has sought to utilize bureaucratic, political, legal and educational vehicles to address these problems. This paper examines the ways in which those policy measures have been communicated to, understood by, and acted upon by the citizenry, drawing in important part on household and epidemiological surveys conducted in Anhui. Our study suggests that the central government's message has yet to be absorbed to the degree intended and then considers both why this has been the case and how the effectiveness of policy mechanisms might be enhanced.