Elain: Innovative transfer of a federal-industry network

ELAIN is an automation project for the processing of export-license applications by the Bureau of Export Administration of the Department of Commerce (DOC). The project is unusual in that it was implemented by administrators without going through normal approval channels. The relationships between the change agent and the agency participants can best be described by Havelock's diffusion-adoption model, which depicts the execution as a one-way relationship from sender to receiver. The more complex models that were examined do not apply because this project was inauguated and furthered by bureaucrats, as opposed to the more usual participation of political appointees. The ELAIN system uses commercial valueadded telecommunications vendors to trasfer the information between the exporters and DOC. Industry used its own funds to develop the necessary special features, with repayment possible only if exporters used their sevices, paying fees for this convenience. No precedent for this type of arrangement was found, hence it is considered to be a social invention as well as an innovation.     

The Taiwan strait crisis of 1996: Implications for US security policy

The Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996 was the greatest challenge to Sino‐American relations in several decades. This study examines the crisis and its implications for US security policy. It outlines US policy toward the defense of Taiwan, discusses the US response to Beijing's military intimidation of Taiwan and analyzes several of the major lessons gleaned from the crisis. The paper suggests that, while China's aggressive behavior should not lead to a dramatic shift in the American position toward Taiwan's defense, some modest adjustments in policy may be warranted.     

Analysis of the co-amplified STR loci D1S1656, D12S391 and D18S51: population data and validation study for a highly discriminating triplex-PCR

A multiplex-PCR composed of the three highly variable STR loci D1S1656, D12S391 and D18S51 has been established. The non-overlapping fragment sizes allow allele detection using a monochrome automated laser fluorescent sequencer (A.L.F. express, Pharmacia Biotech). The typing results of the triplex-PCR showed no difference to those of singleplex-PCR. Allele frequencies were determined in a Western German population of 228 individuals from Cologne. The heterozygosities and exclusion chances (D1S1656, 0.982; D12S391, 0.979; D18S51, 0.97) are very high compared to other short tandem repeats used for forensic applications. No deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were found. Successful typing of DNA amounts down to 50-100 pg is possible. Mixtures of up to 1:10 can be identified. In conclusion, the high combined exclusion chance due to the well-balanced allelic distribution and its high sensitivity make this triplex-PCR a valuable tool for forensic casework.     

Testing theories of electoral cycles

Abstract. A common form of electoral cycle theory asserts that support for government parties is dependent on the proportion of an inter-election interval which has passed since the last national election. Weekly opinion poll data for the Netherlands are used to test whether or not such 'cyclical' patterns of change can be detected in the inter-election periods of 1977–1981 and 1982–1986. The relative merits of two methods of analysis, polynomial regression and ARIMA, are discussed and demonstrated. The latter is shown to be the more suitable of the two; the former may yield misleading outcomes. The analyses reported do not display even a glimpse of empirical support for the alleged cyclical phenomenon. The ARIMA analyses can be used, however, to describe how processes and events in a society impinge on (noncyclical) developments in the electoral support for political parties.