Testing theories of electoral cycles

Abstract. A common form of electoral cycle theory asserts that support for government parties is dependent on the proportion of an inter-election interval which has passed since the last national election. Weekly opinion poll data for the Netherlands are used to test whether or not such 'cyclical' patterns of change can be detected in the inter-election periods of 1977–1981 and 1982–1986. The relative merits of two methods of analysis, polynomial regression and ARIMA, are discussed and demonstrated. The latter is shown to be the more suitable of the two; the former may yield misleading outcomes. The analyses reported do not display even a glimpse of empirical support for the alleged cyclical phenomenon. The ARIMA analyses can be used, however, to describe how processes and events in a society impinge on (noncyclical) developments in the electoral support for political parties.     

The European Elections Study 1994

European Journal of Political Research -     

Developmental Patterns in Adolescent Attachment to Mother,Father and Sibling

The aim of this study was to examine the development of quality of attachment of adolescents to their parents and siblings during adolescence and the role that gender differences play in this development, using latent growth curve analysis. In 288 families, adolescents reported on their attachment relationships with their parents and siblings. Quality of attachment changes during adolescence, and these changes are influenced by both gender of the adolescent and gender of the attachment figure. Results showed that change in mean level of quality of attachment to mother appeared to be nonlinear for boys, whereas mean level of attachment of adolescent girls to their mothers showed a linear decline. Results for attachment to father were opposite, with a linear decline in quality for boys, and a nonlinear development for girls. Quality of attachment to sibling showed differential development depending on gender composition of the sibling dyad.     

Fervid Fashion And Fusion

Hanfu, from niche hobby to a big biz tapping into patriotic poise When the hanfu craze first burst into sight in 2018, many regarded the trend as a symbol of young China’s surging cultural confidence, its rise driven by a mix of rising nationalism, local brand savviness, and social media amplified hype amongst China’s Gen Z.     

A Tale of Tribes and Traditions

Though I am by no means the Secret Santa —'tis the season—of sustain-able design, one aspect thereof, I am infatuated with—from head to toe: tradi-tional artisanal skill-ship.     

Prosocial Behavior and Public Service Motivation

Although research on public service motivation (PSM) is vast, there is little evidence regarding the effects of PSM on observable behavior. This article contributes to the understanding of the behavioral implications of PSM by investigating whether PSM is associated with prosocial behavior. Moreover, it addresses whether and how the behavior of other group members influences this relationship. The article uses the experimental setting of the public goods game, run with a sample of 263 students, in combination with survey‐based PSM measures. A positive link is found between PSM and prosocial behavior. This relationship is moderated by the behavior of other group members: high‐PSM people act even more prosocially when the other members of the group show prosocial behavior as well, but they do not do so if the behavior of other group members is not prosocial.     

National Varieties of Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs): A Comparative Analysis of PPP-Supporting Units in 19 European Countries

Most countries that have adopted the public–private partnership (PPP) model as a means of implementing infrastructure projects have launched dedicated supporting units to guide policy development and stimulate project implementation. This paper draws on the theoretical notion of PPP-enabling fields to carry out a comparative analysis of the roles and functions of PPP-supporting units across 19 European countries with varying PPP experiences. We distinguish four categories of national support of PPPs, from skeptical systems of zero support to full-fledged PPP systems. Furthermore, we take initial steps to analyze the possible link between national differences in institutionalized PPP support and the amount of implemented PPP projects. Finally, pathways for further research on PPP-supporting units are discussed.     

The Mediterranean: Migration Corridor,Border Spectacle,Ethical Landscape

Talk of a ‘migration crisis’ calls forth three related spatial renderings of the Mediterranean Sea. Their social production involves a particular politics of visualization. First, the Mediterranean is but one leg of a longer migration corridor, yet as such substantiates a geo-racial border zone. Second, scenes of rescue at sea have functioned as border spectacles, naturalizing migration politics. Third, expanding surveillance infrastructure has undermined a firewall between border patrolling and search-and-rescue, thereby helping to create and sustain an ethical landscape of response-ability to routinized emergency. Visualizing and disseminating this landscape has, for the moment, created a political space between wanted and unwanted mobilities.     

Fuel for thought? South Africa's position on the multilateralisation of the nuclear fuel cycle

The proponents of international nuclear fuel banks maintain that these banks will contribute to nuclear non-proliferation, whereas those opposing it maintain that nuclear weapon states support these banks in order to control and multilateralise the nuclear fuel cycle, thus preventing developing states from developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Global inequalities pertaining to nuclear energy continue to persist despite developing states’ efforts to reform the international nuclear energy regime. Moreover, some developing states maintain that these nuclear fuel banks perpetuate inequality in international relations. This is one of the reasons why some leading developing states, such as Brazil and South Africa, oppose these banks. South Africa, for example, intends to re-establish its nuclear fuel cycle and has declared uranium a strategic resource. Against the aforesaid, this article, following a constructivist approach, analyses the emergence and social construction of nuclear fuel banks as a practical expression of nuclear non-proliferation norms. The discussion also considers the inter-subjective understanding of these banks, as well as South Africa’s opposition to them. The article concludes with an analysis of the implications of these opposing views for global equity, equality, nuclear non-proliferation and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.