巨灾保险试点问题解析及对策研究

巨灾保险试点运营以来,在取得了一定的巨灾风险管理成效的同时困难也不断出现,因此,如何进一步推行巨灾保险,是一个亟待解决的问题.本文在论述以巨灾保险转嫁巨灾风险与自助、互助、公助的理念相契合,巨灾风险之"公众性"和"社群性"决定了巨灾保险政府介入的必要性和有限性,巨灾保险与大数法则的矛盾及其化解,巨灾保险试点运营存在的问...     

对行政诉讼一般地域管辖制度的反思

行政诉讼的司法审查性质,决定了司法权对行政权保持中立的特殊意义。行政诉讼一般地域管辖的“原告就被告”原则,决定了多数行政案件由被告所在地法院审理,实质上使之成为行政权与行政审判权之间联系的纽带,削弱了法院的抗干扰能力。克服司法地方化,阻断行政权等权力对行政审判权的不利影响是实现行政审判公正的首要前提,也是最终实现行政诉讼目的“保护公民、法人和其他组织的合法权益”的根本保障。结合我国当前实际,摒弃“原告就被告”原则,赋予行政相对人以“选择法院权”和“异地管辖”两种手段来阻断行政权对司法权的不利影响是实现行政诉讼公正和完善我国行政诉讼制度的必要。     

日本环境友好型生活方式的立法培育经验及对我国的启示

促进公众形成环境友好型的生活方式,是建设环境友好型社会的必然要求。环境资源问题在中国和日本均已成为制约经济和社会进一步发展的瓶颈。日本在培育国民形成环境友好型生活方式方面取得了很好的成效。从法律上来看,该国的经验在于制定了完备的立法体系,并在责任分配、教育说服、公众行为的引导和综合性法律调整四个方面规定了切实有效的法律制度。我国的相关立法不完善,制度的建设也存在欠缺。因此,在技术层面上定向地借鉴日本的成熟经验,按照我国的经济基础、环境状况、环境文化和国民生活方式等基本国情,逐步完善相关的立法和制度是必要的。实践证明也是可行和有效的。     

Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., over-confidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process—and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community.     

Environmental Tax,Polluting Plants’ Strategies and Effectiveness: Evidence from China

Although environmental taxes have become a popular policy tool, their effectiveness for pollution control and impact on the compliance strategies of agents remains questionable. This research uses a quasi‐experimental design to examine the effectiveness of the Pay for Permit policy, an environmental tax that has been imposed on water pollution emissions in Lake Tai Basin, Jiangsu, China, since 2009. A plant‐level panel dataset from 2007 to 2010 is used for both difference‐in‐differences and difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences analyses to compare the pollution discharge, pollution abatement, and pollution generation of policy participants and control groups. The results indicate that treated plants reduce their emissions by about 40 percent after two years of the policy implementation. Thus, the policy generated approximately a 7 percent decrease in the industrial chemical oxygen demand emission in the entire Lake Tai Basin based on the emission level of 2007. Pollution is primarily reduced via end‐of‐pipe abatement instead of cleaner production. Our results show the effectiveness of environmental taxes in controlling industrial pollution, and indicate that the tax may not motivate the adoption of innovative techniques in the short term.     

North Korea and the East Asian Security order: competing views on what South Korea ought to do

This article investigates South Korean views on how to deal with the two major security issues regarding North Korea: its nuclear threat and regime instability. In this Special Section, the article analyzes the ongoing debate in South Korea over the government's policy toward North Korea in regard to these two issues. It argues that uncertainties about these two major issues are shaping the regional order in East Asia. In particular, the different levels of cooperation between South Korea and the United States may affect the regional security order in East Asia. In analyzing policy options available to South Korea, the riskiest option would be to employ early preemptive attacks and accelerate the collapse of North Korea given the security dilemma-driven action?reaction in East Asia. Given that the role of China has become the most crucial factor in dealing with North Korea, the most promising strategy would be to reinforce guarantees of extended nuclear deterrence and prompt a soft-landing unification.     

东亚区域的文化共性探析——以日本茶道和谐美的考察为中心

区域一体化是集经济一体化、政治一体化、社会规范化和文化均质化于一身的综合进程,这一进程起步于经济领域,外溢于政治、防务和社会领域,但将终结于文化领域.重新审视、追溯东亚区域文化的源流,寻求东亚区域各国的文化共性,对于促进东亚区域的和平、繁荣,有着积极的现实意义.本文将以日本茶道为例,探讨东亚和谐思想的共性.     

毛泽东的中国现代化建设思想论要

毛泽东关于中国现代化建设的思想 ,虽然散见于许多讲话、谈话和文稿当中 ,却仍对在中国这样一个特定国度里实现现代化的一系列现实问题作了理论说明 ,构成了相对完整的内容。尽管他并没有完全解决自己提出的问题 ,理论中甚至存有相悖之处 ,但在探索中仍然留下了很多宝贵的思路和见解 ,成为今日中国现代化建设指导思想的重要思想渊源。对此 ,本文拟择要分析。中国现代化建设的先决条件为中国现代化建设提供先决条件 ,既是毛泽东对中国现代化建设的真正启动最突出的贡献 ,也是他关于中国现代化构想的一个重要内容。在毛泽东看来 ,革命本身就是…     

The political economy of global firms from India and China

This article attempts to build a bridge between contemporary studies of global firms from emerging economies and existing theories in comparative political economy. It argues that given the primacy of the state as an economic actor in developing countries, the variety of capitalism literature could provide a theoretical foundation for firm-level analyses of emerging market multinationals. For example, the authors suggest that China and India may be moving towards a ‘hybrid market economy’. They also offer a typology of Indian and Chinese corporates to demonstrate an empirical approach to analysing domestic business–government relationships and the ways in which these firms are shaped by the peculiarities of their respective institutional setting. Finally, they identify some of the likely pitfalls of doing cross-national comparisons of emerging market multinationals, particularly with respect to the reliability of corporate data.     

意大利的青少年犯罪与青少年司法状况

意大利青少年犯罪状况逐年恶化，意大利的青少年犯罪率呈现出北部高于中部及南部地区特点。意大利青少年犯罪与社会经济、政治的状况相关，但更表现出与非法移民之间的联系。针对这种状况，在意大利，实施意大利模式的青少年司法，对青少年广泛适用恢复性司法，对治理青少年犯罪，取得了良好的效国。