强势崛起、金融危机与俄罗斯对外政策的调整

2008年,俄格冲突和金融危机对俄罗斯对外政策产生,了实质性的影响。俄格冲突体现了俄罗斯的强势崛起,表明实力复苏的俄罗斯坚决捍卫国家核心利益的决心;金融危机则对俄罗斯带来了多方位的冲击,暴露出俄罗斯复兴进程的脆弱性与不确定性。俄罗斯就是在俄格冲突之际的冲动和亢奋与金融危机时的无奈与失落之间度过2008年的。这种落差体现了俄罗斯内政、经济与外交之间的密切关联,展现了俄罗斯对外战略中的内在矛盾,也影响着俄罗斯对外政策的调整。     

2006年老挝形势特点与前瞻

一、政治上完成高层新老交替,老挝人民革命党执政地位依然稳固 2006年3月18～21日,老挝人民革命党第八次全国代表大会在万象举行.选举产生了以朱马利·赛雅贡为总书记的新一届中央委员会并恢复设立中央书记处.年届82岁高龄的坎代·西潘敦正式将权力移交给现年70岁的朱马利·赛雅贡,标志着老党第二代领导人全面接管党、国、军核心权力.     

未成年人刑事案件的审前调查制度探讨

审前调查是在法院判决前，由专门机构对行为人的个人情况、犯罪背景等进行专门调查，并对其人身危险性进行系统的评估，然后将调查与评估报告提交法院，供法院在量刑时参考的一种制度。审前调查制度有利于促进刑罚效益的最优实现，被认为是量刑科学化、合理化的体现，是犯罪人处遇个别化的出发点。在未成年刑事案件的处理中，这一制度更具有特殊的意义，已成为当今各国少年刑法中的通行制度。但就我国现状而言，审前调查制度在立法中尚属空白。本文就我国未成年刑事案件处理中引入该制度的相关问题略作探讨。     

产业转型中内部劳动力市场的优化对新生代农民工人力资本提升的影响研究

在经济发展新常态背景下,我国产业转型升级和经济增长质量都要求劳动力具备转型所需的创造性、技能性等特征。新生代农民工作为农村劳动力转移的主体,同时也是承担产业转型的直接参与者,这部分劳动力的质量对我国产业转型升级以及广大中小企业的可持续发展有重要的影响作用。但目前,新生代农民工较低的人力资本水平已经明显成为阻碍产业转型、技术创新、企业发展的主要障碍。因此,在分析产业转型过程中新生代农民工人力资本提升效应的基础上,着重从企业内部劳动力市场的机理进行分析,构建内部劳动力市场效率模型,并基于调查数据的实证分析,以探究内部劳动力市场优化对新生代农民工人力资本提升的影响路径。     

Does China’s middle class prefer (liberal) democracy?

Many surveys show that China’s political regime, under the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian rules, enjoys a high level of public support. However, it is still uncertain whether China’s emerging middle class will become the “agent of democratization” as suggested by modernization theory. Using the data of Asian Barometer Survey conducted in China in 2011, this article demonstrates that the relationship between class identity and preference for liberal democracy in China may be inverted U-shaped. The Chinese middle class shows a higher preference to features of liberal democratic regimes than its counterparts of the lower- and upper-class. Members of the Chinese middle class also tend to regard democracy as the best form of government. Thus, the middle class has the potential to initiate democratization in China if the Chinese government fails to keep satisfying the middle class’ quest for economic well-being and protection of property rights.     

Prospect theory,operational code analysis,and risk-taking behaviour: a new model of China’s crisis behaviour

Integrating prospect theory and operational code analysis, this paper introduces an innovative approach to studying the decision making of Chinese leaders during crises. The unique contribution of this paper is to adopt the methodology of operational code analysis to measure the domain of actions of policy makers in the application of prospect theory. We suggest that leaders’ operational code beliefs can help us to identify in which domain of actions (gains or losses) leaders are located during crises. Xi Jinping experienced two notable foreign policy crises in 2014, the ‘oil rig’ crisis with Vietnam and the ‘P-8 crisis’ with the United States, which are examined in detail to illustrate Xi’s operational code beliefs and risk-taking behaviour of ‘confident accommodation’ behaviour during crises. To test the process validity of integrating operational code analysis and prospect theory, Hu Jintao’s operational code beliefs and crisis behaviour in 2011–2012 are then compared to Xi’s beliefs and decisions in this study of China’s crisis behaviour.     

论工会在推进新生代农民工城市融入中的作用

与老一代农民工相比,新生代农民工城市融入愿望更为强烈。然而,受到城乡二元结构的限制与自身文化、技能的制约,新生代农民工城市融入水平较低。工会作为党联系职工群众的纽带和桥梁,作为职工利益的代表者和维护者,理应发挥组织优势,加快推进新生代农民工城市融入。     

The Peer Context and the Development of the Perpetration of Adolescent Dating Violence

The peer context is a central focus in research on adolescent risk behaviors but few studies have investigated the role of the peer context in the perpetration of adolescent dating violence. This longitudinal study examined between-subjects and within-person contemporaneous and lagged effects of peer attributes, measured with social network analyses, on trajectories of dating violence perpetration and determined if effects varied by grade and/or sex of the adolescent. Data are from adolescents who participated in a five-wave panel study beginning when they were in 7 through 9th grade and ending when they were in 10 through 12th grade (n = 3,412); half were male, 40.5 % were white, 49.9 % were black and 10.4 % were of another race/ethnicity. Significant between-subjects effects indicate that adolescents who typically have friends who use dating violence, and girls who are typically high in social status, are at increased risk for using dating violence throughout adolescence. Adolescents who typically have high quality friendships and girls who typically have friends with pro-social beliefs are at decreased risk for using dating violence throughout adolescence. Significant within-person contemporaneous effects indicate that both boys and girls reported lower levels of dating violence than usual at times when they had more friends with pro-social beliefs, and reported higher levels of dating violence than usual at times when they had higher social status. None of the lagged effects were significant and none of the effects varied across grade. These findings suggest that the peer context plays an important role in the development of the perpetration of adolescent dating violence.     

Rethinking public policy in agriculture: lessons from history,distant and recent

This article reviews the histories of agricultural policy in 11 of today's developed countries between the late-nineteenth and the mid-twentieth century and in 10 developing and transition economies since the mid-twentieth century. After discussing the theoretical limitations of the prevailing orthodoxy, the article discusses the history of a wide range of agricultural policies concerning issues like land, knowledge (e.g., research, extension), credit, physical inputs (e.g., irrigation, transport, fertilizers, seeds), farm income stability (e.g., price stabilisation measures, insurances, trade protection), marketing, and processing. The article ends by discussing the policy lessons that may be learned from these historical experiences.