Statistical Inference After Model Selection

Conventional statistical inference requires that a model of how the data were generated be known before the data are analyzed. Yet in criminology, and in the social sciences more broadly, a variety of model selection procedures are routinely undertaken followed by statistical tests and confidence intervals computed for a “final” model. In this paper, we examine such practices and show how they are typically misguided. The parameters being estimated are no longer well defined, and post-model-selection sampling distributions are mixtures with properties that are very different from what is conventionally assumed. Confidence intervals and statistical tests do not perform as they should. We examine in some detail the specific mechanisms responsible. We also offer some suggestions for better practice and show though a criminal justice example using real data how proper statistical inference in principle may be obtained.     

Suicide in Police Work: Exploring Potential Contributing Influences

Police officers are considered at increased risk for suicide. The objective of this study was to explore potential influences on suicide ideation among 105 randomly selected men and women urban police officers. Depression, gender, and marital status appeared to be most strongly associated with police suicidal ideation. Depressive symptoms were higher among women than men officers (12.5 percent vs. 6.2 percent). For each standard deviation increase in depressive symptoms, the prevalence ratio (PR) of suicide ideation increased 73 percent in women (PR?=?1.73, 95% CI?=?1.32–2.27) and 67 percent in men (PR?=?1.67, 95% CI?=?1.21–2.30). The association between depression and ideation was stronger among unmarried women officers (PR?=?4.43; 95% CI?=?2.19 – 8.91) than married women officers (PR?=?1.39, 95% CI?=?1.09 – 1.79). While depression has previously been associated with suicide, such results are unusual in a healthy working population such as the police.     

New relaxed regulatory regime for private international charities: the Manx Private Charitable Foundation

The Manx Private Charitable Foundation has become a highly attractivevehicle for private charitable arrangements following on a changein the regulatory legislation in the Isle of Man in 2008, especiallywhere there is no UK inheritance tax or US estate and gift taxissues for donors. In the Isle of Man which has its own unique legal system, since1986 non-local charities have been almost impossible to establish,consequent upon the passing of the Charities Registration Act1986. However, with the adoption of the Charities (Exemption)Regulation 2008 that has now changed. Manx law has followed English law in the past. However, thenew English legislation of 2006 has not been followed. The old‘Pemsel Case’     

Belief v. Belief: Resolving LGBTQ Rights Conflicts in the Religious Workplace

Employment disputes are increasingly centered on the conflicting moral and religious values of corporations, their employees, and their customers. These conflicts are especially challenging when they involve the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, and queer/questioning (LGBTQ) employees and customers contraposed against the religious beliefs of corporations and their owners. When religious values compete with civil rights in the employment context, a complex web of legal protections renders the outcome unclear. Conflicts over these competing rights can involve a number of broad, thorny legal disputes, including those concerning the First Amendment and Title VII, fights between secular and religious beliefs, and competition between religious beliefs and equal protection rights under the Fourteenth Amendment. This article illustrates the reasons for this growing tension between the beliefs of business owners and the beliefs of their employees. It explores recent conflicts between religion and rights in the workplace particularly in the context of LGBTQ rights, the ways in which state‐level regulation complicates these conflicts, and the potential impact of recent cases addressing these concerns. It also identifies examples of potential specific conflicts in the context of LGBTQ rights and suggests the principles that should guide the resolution of these cases, offering a framework for assessing the hierarchy that a court may use in resolving cases in which values conflict with rights in the workplace. Finally, it addresses some of the troubling implications that arise as a result of the resolution of the potential specific conflicts.     

An Assessment of Judges’ Self‐Reported Experiences of Secondary Traumatic Stress

Many judges experience occupation‐specific stress, such as secondary traumatic stress (STS), burnout, compassion fatigue, and vicarious traumatization. A content analysis of 762 judges’ open‐ended responses to a survey asking whether they had suffered from STS revealed that judges moderately experienced most types of stress. Some case types (e.g., family court) and some job aspects (e.g., gruesome evidence) were particularly stressful. Judges reported both positive (e.g., social support) and negative (e.g., distractions) coping mechanisms. Interventions should be tailored to judges’ characteristics, (e.g., gender), job (e.g., family court), beliefs (e.g., that STS does not exist), and level of distress.     

Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy Pathology After Shotgun Injury to the Brain

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) was initially conceptualized in boxers, but has extended to other athletes in recent years, albeit with limited clinical correlations. It is often asserted that CTE pathology represents the substrate for progressive neurodegenerative disease. We report the case of a shotgun injury to the brain with 42‐year survival and no neurological disease progression until shortly before death. The decedent had no other traumatic brain injury (TBI) exposure and did not play football or other high energy collision sport. Neuropathological examination confirmed tissue damage, but additionally demonstrated localized patterns of phosphorylated tau (p‐tau) meeting criteria for CTE pathology. P‐tau and TDP‐43 deposits within marginal tissue of damaged brain were also present focally. No amyloid‐β (Aβ) deposits were present. These findings indicate that CTE pathology may occur following a single, severe TBI.     

Proactive Policing: a Summary of the Report of the National Academies of Sciences,Engineering, and Medicine

This paper provides a summary of our report for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on proactive policing. We find that there is sufficient scientific evidence to support the adoption of many proactive policing practices if the primary goal is to reduce crime, though the evidence base generally does not provide long-term or jurisdictional estimates. In turn, we conclude that crime prevention outcomes can often be obtained without producing negative community reactions. However, the most effective proactive policing strategies do not appear to have strong positive impacts on citizen perceptions of the police. At the same time, some community-based strategies have begun to show evidence of improving the relations between the police and public. We conclude that there are likely to be large racial disparities in the volume and nature of police–citizen encounters when police target high-risk people or high-risk places, as is common in many proactive policing programs. We could not conclude whether such disparities are due to statistical prediction, racial animus, implicit bias, or other causes.

     

Illicit Drug Delivery Via Administration of Human Blood

The physiological, psychological, and social consequences associated with illicit drug use are well documented. In addition to the effects directly related to the drug(s), the delivery mechanism can precipitate other serious health conditions. A case is reported where an individual stopped by law enforcement was discovered to be in possession of a vial containing a red‐colored fluid, which the person stated was blood and contained fentanyl. Analysis by headspace GC, ELISA, and LC‐TOF/MS screening in with mass spectral confirmation revealed the presence of several substances, including ethanol, methamphetamine, amphetamine, MDA, 6‐monoacetylmorphine, codeine, morphine, alprazolam, delta‐9 THC, ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, and norpseudoephedrine; serology testing verified the fluid was consistent with human blood. Methamphetamine was present at a dosage form amount (11 mg). The purpose of this study was to detail the analytical findings, interpret their meaning, and discuss the public health concerns associated with the drug delivery by the administration of human blood.     

Two steps forward and ten steps backwards: a retreat from shareholder value primacy,stakeholder theory,creditors and directors duties in the Commonwealth Caribbean

Directors’ duties in the Commonwealth Caribbean (CC) were shaped by English law and shareholder value primacy (SVP). Directors’ must act in the best interest of the solvent company for the benefit of its shareholders generally. No direct duty is owed to creditors at common law, save to consider their interests on insolvency. SVP prominence in the CC has yielded to the acceptance of Canadian corporate law and stakeholder theory. Through a comparative analysis of the law in the UK, Germany and Canada, this paper examines the impact of stakeholder theory on directors’ duties in Barbados and Jamaica.