Learning about terrorism: Analysis,simulations, and future directions

This paper surveys the various activities of the Study Group on International Terrorism at the University of Oklahoma. The Study Group has employed the following phases in analyzing a form of conflict that has increasingly seized the world's headlines and challenged the capacity of governments to meet a particularly insidious type of political violence. In PHASE I, Ascertaining the Scope of the Investigation, problems related to defining “terrorism” and evolving a focus for analysis are recounted. In PHASE II, The Collection of Data and Initial Analysis, the techniques employed by the Study Group in collecting and evaluating data dealing with incidents of terrorism are discussed. In addition, a number of the preliminary findings of the studies are presented. In PHASE III, Application and Evaluation, the methods by which the initial findings were employed to develop a wide variety of programs related to developing alternatives to meet the threat of terrorism are discussed. Particular emphasis is placed on problems related to reconciling the need for an effective tactical response when an incident occurs with the equally pressing requirement for effective hostage negotiation. Under the section entitled Simulations, the techniques employed in developing a series of highly realistic simulations involving: (1) the University of Oklahoma Security Department, (2) the Norman Police Department, (3) members of a U.S. Army Special Forces Unit, and (4) flight attendants aboard the mock‐up of a cabin at the training facility of a leading international airline are presented. In addition, certain patterns that emerge from the simulations are noted. In PHASE IV, Policy Implications, the patterns mat emerged from the simulations are related to broader policy questions that not only include the need for more effective training techniques for law enforcement personnel, but also stresses the need to provide exercises that would promote administrative cooperation among senior level officials from the different jurisdictions that would be involved if an incident were to occur. In PHASE V, Future Directions, new areas of analysis and training are presented as they particularly relate to the need to sensitize personnel from both the public and private sector who may be high‐risk targets for terrorists attacks.     

Italian terrorism: Record figures and political dilemmas

The political assassination of Aldo Moro in May 1978 had a stunning effect on the Italian public similar to that experienced by Americans in the wake of the assassination of President Kennedy. The Moro case underscored the key political dilemmas confronting Italian leaders of all parties. It also led to a temporary breakthrough in the prosecution of political crimes by the arrest of leading suspects and the erosion of the terrorist supporting infrastructure. But without more effective legislation bolstering the discretionary use of force of police agencies, the frequency of terrorist activities has not diminished; the objectives have shifted temporarily from “revolutionary” to anarchial motives—compounding the prospects for prompt societal resolutions at the frustrations of issues.     

Why does terrorism terrorize?

Abstract

Attempting to lay bare the psychological roots of terrorism, the author alludes to the views of such rebels against the status quo as Marx, Engels, Bakunin, and Kropotkin and examines in greater detail the myths and beliefs current in ancient times, in the Middle Ages, and even in the modern period that were instrumental in instilling fear and terror into the minds of men. It is held, for instance, that such countercultures and aberrations as the drug culture, the Weathermen, the Manson Family, and the Symbionese Liberation Army seem to be clear manifestations of the excitement and fear that assault individuals in the name of political ideals. The author offers a “model of terroristic resonance,” based on the public perception of a terrorist as being uncaring, vengeance‐oriented, and single‐minded in his aggressivity; also perceived in terrorists is a sense of randomness and unpredictability, infusing in their victims an extreme anxiety and an awesome sense of the uncanny, the effect of which may be likened to an irresistible impulse from the id assaulting the personification of the social representative of the superego. Modern‐day terrorists, it is claimed, carry on an ancient messianic and prophetic tradition of horror that is being visited upon man because of his violation of absolutist values.     

Constitutional literacy in Africa: challenges and prospects

The issue of constitutional literacy has attracted very little attention in scholarship on constitutionalism in Africa. This is not surprising, because the early constitutions were virtually imposed by the departing colonial powers and perceived as alien, not only by the ordinary citizens but also the new leaders, who had little knowledge or experience of constitutional governance. Have the new generation of ‘made-in-Africa’ constitutions changed the state of constitutional literacy on the continent? In addressing this question, the paper examines the concept of constitutional literacy and, using the example of South Africa, considers ways in which it could be promoted. The paper also considers the challenges to promoting constitutional literacy. It concludes by underlining the fact that strengthening the democratic constitutional foundations laid in the 1990s, foundations increasingly under threat today, requires a comprehensive programme of constitutional education, with a focus on the poor and other marginalised groups in society. Without knowledge and awareness of constitutional rights, citizens will not be able to vindicate their rights or challenge any violation of them.     

The Publication of Precedents and Its Effect on Legislative Behavior

What was the effect of the publication of the precedents in the House in the late nineteenth century? Empirical analysis demonstrates a significant effect of the publication of the House precedents on the behavior of members' willingness to appeal decisions of the chair. Publication of the precedents reduced the frequency of appeals, a finding consistent with the qualitative arguments of past parliamentarians but never before demonstrated empirically. Further, parallel analysis of the Senate reveals that the publication effect found for the House is not an artifact of some secular trend in legislative behavior, doing so by showing that no similar pattern occurs in the Senate during the same period of time.     

Children’s Aggression, Parenting Styles, and Distress for Hong Kong Parents

This study examined the connection between parental perceptions about their children’s reactive and proactive aggression, parenting styles, parent–child communication, and parental distress. A total of 1,485 Hong Kong parents and guardians with children 8 to 17 years old completed the Reactive and Proactive Aggression Questionnaire, Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, Adjective Checklist, and Parenting Styles and Dimensions Questionnaire. When reactive and proactive aggression responses were used to predict parental distress, a significant regression model was obtained with both predictors making a contribution. A significant model also was discovered when parenting styles and parent–child communication were used to predict parental distress. Authoritative, authoritarian, and permissive parenting contributed significantly to this model. One final regression was performed with the significant predictors from the two previous equations. This model was significant, with reactive and proactive aggression, and authoritative, authoritarian, and permissive parenting styles making significant contributions. Practice and research implications are briefly discussed.     

Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

Objectives

Researchers have used repeated cross sectional observations of homicide rates and sanctions to examine the deterrent effect of the adoption and implementation of death penalty statutes. The empirical literature, however, has failed to achieve consensus. A fundamental problem is that the outcomes of counterfactual policies are not observable. Hence, the data alone cannot identify the deterrent effect of capital punishment. This paper asks how research should proceed. We seek to make transparent how assumptions shape inference.

Methods

We study the identifying power of relatively weak assumptions restricting variation in treatment response across places and time. We perform empirical analysis using state-level data in the United States in 1975 and 1977.

Results

The results are findings of partial identification that bound the deterrent effect of capital punishment. Under the weakest restrictions, there is substantial ambiguity: we cannot rule out the possibility that having a death penalty statute substantially increases or decreases homicide. This ambiguity is reduced when we impose stronger assumptions, but inferences are sensitive to the maintained restrictions.

Conclusions

Imposing certain assumptions implies that adoption of a death penalty statute increases homicide, but other assumptions imply that the death penalty deters it. Thus, society at large can draw strong conclusions only if there is a consensus favoring particular assumptions. Without such a consensus, data on sanctions and murder rates cannot settle the debate about deterrence. However, data combined with weak assumptions can bound and focus the debate.     

Pitfalls in the Use of Time Series Methods to Study Deterrence and Capital Punishment

Objectives

Evaluate the use of various time series methods to measure the deterrence effect of capital punishment.

Methods

The analysis of the time series approach to deterrence is conducted at two levels. First, the mathematical foundations of time series methods are described and the link between the time series properties of aggregate homicide and execution series and individual decision making is developed. Second, individual studies are examined for logical consistency.

Results

The analysis concludes that time series methods used to study the deterrence effects of capital punishment suffer from fundamental limitations and fail to provide credible evidence. The common limitation of these studies is their lack of attention to identification problems. Suggestions are made as to directions for future work that may be able to mitigate the weaknesses of the current literature.

Conclusions

Time series studies of capital punishment suffer from sufficiently serious identification problems that existing empirical findings are compatible with either the presence or the absence of a deterrent effect.     

The Elusive Search for Presidential Power

Unilateral presidential actions, such as executive orders, are widely cited as a key strategic tool for presidential power. However, is unilateral action evidence of unilateralism or might it represent executive acquiescence? We answer this by (1) specifying three competing models, each with a different presidential discretion assumption and generating alternative hypotheses; (2) extending the canonical item‐response model to best measure executive‐order significance; and (3) comparing competing theoretical models to data for 1947–2002. Theoretically, we show that legislative preferences may impact unilateral actions differently than previously thought and indicate how parties may be influential. Empirically, a model where the president is responsive to the chamber's majority‐party median fits the data better than models assuming responsiveness to the chamber median or no presidential acquiescence. Unilateral action appears not tantamount to presidential power, as evidence implies that legislative parties, or the judicial actors enforcing their will, are key conditioning factors.