TARGETING EFFICIENCY OF SOCIAL SECURITY PROGRAMS*

Abstract: The program budgeting and related reforms initiated by the Commonwealth in 1985 require federal departments and agencies to set objectives for their programs and to develop performance measures to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of these programs. This paper examines the targeting efficiency of Australia's social security programs and finds that these are among the most efficient of OECD countries.     

Rethinking the Probative Value of Evidence: Base Rates,Intuitive Profiling,and the “Postdiction” of Behavior

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially intuitive profiling or stereotype related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive profiles (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, intuitive profiling evidence is admitted to postdict behavior. Formal empirically based profiling evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendant's characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value diagnosticity, and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many profiling characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.     

Factors Associated with Physician Discussion of Health Behaviors with Adolescents

Behaviors developed in adolescence influence health later in life. The purpose of this study was to investigate the frequency of health care provider's discussion of health behaviors with overweight and non-overweight adolescents and identify demographic and health behaviors related to exercise, hours of television viewing, and weight issues associated with these discussions. A Cross sectional survey of urban adolescents was conducted. Trained interviewers administered surveys over a three month period in 2001 at an urban academic pediatric and adolescent clinic. The 252 adolescents surveyed had a mean age of 15 with 49% categorized as being at risk for overweight/overweight and 51% as normal weight using the CDC percentiles for BMI. While 16% of the adolescents reported that their physician or nurse discussed the amount of television they watched, rates of discussion related to exercise (58%), and weight (54%) were much higher. In multivariate analyses, health care provider discussions with adolescents regarding exercise were more common for overweight (O.R.=2.42, 95% C.I. [1.28–4.57]) and at risk for overweight (O.R.=1.98, 95% C.I. [1.03–3.81]) adolescents, whereas physician discussion of television viewing was not associated with weight. Discussions of weight were more common for female (O.R.=2.18, 95% C.I. [1.21–3.95]), African-American (O.R.=2.53, 95% C.I. [1.40–4.57]), and overweight (O.R.=3.92, 95% C.I. [1.97–7.81]) adolescents. Even after adjusting for weight, race and gender strongly influenced the frequency of discussions about weight in physician offices. Although health care providers frequently address weight and exercise with adolescents, more discussions related to sedentary behaviors such as television viewing may be warranted to address adolescent obesity.Received PhD in Epidemiology from University of California, San Diego. Research interests include smoking prevention and cessation among adolescents and health promotion interventions.Received MD from University of Missouri-Kansas City and MPH from Johns Hopkins University. Research interests include health services research and research in support of measurable, systematic improvements in the quality of medical care.Received medical degree from Christian Medical College, Punjab, India and Master of Public Health from University of Kansas School of Medicine. Research interests include diet and physical activity behaviors, role of the environment in obesity and obesity prevention, especially among children and adolescents.Received MBBS from Allama Iqbal Medical College, Punjab University, Lahore, Pakistan and MPH from University of Kansas Medical Center. Research interests include smoking cessation, database design, implementation, data management and analysis, and use of information technology in health care settings.Director, Cancer Prevention, Control, and Population Sciences, Kansas Cancer Institute. Received MD/MPH from Tulane University and MS from Harvard School of Public Health. Research interests include disparities in healthcare; smoking cessation among underserved populations, specifically African Americans; diet, nutrition, obesity, and physical activity.     

Testing a Model of Resistance to Peer Pressure Among Mexican-Origin Adolescents

This study examined the factors associated with resistance to peer pressure toward antisocial behaviors among a sample of Mexican-origin adolescents (n=564) living in a large Southwestern city in the U.S. A model examining the influence of generational status, emotional autonomy from parents, and self-esteem on resistance to peer pressure was tested independently for boys and girls. Gender differences emerged in the factors that influenced resistance to peer pressure. Results indicated that resistance to peer pressure was influenced by generational status and emotional autonomy from parents for both boys and girls. However, self-esteem was found to influence resistance to peer pressure only for boys.Mayra Y. Bámaca is a graduate student in Family and Human Development at Arizona State University. Her research interests include adolescent development among ethnically diverse populations, the influence of contextual factors in development, parenting adolescents, and resiliency among Latino adolescents and their families. This work was based on the master’s thesis of the first author.Adriana J. Uma?a-Taylor received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri-Columbia and is currently an Assistant Professor of Family and Human Development at Arizona State University. Her research interests include ethnic identity formation during adolescence and resilience among Latino adolescents and their families.This study was supported, in part, by a grant to the second author from the Fahs Beck Fund for Research and Experimentation of the New York Community Trust.     

Social Support, Risk-Level and Safety Actions Following Acute Assessment of Suicidal Youth

The purpose of the pilot study was to examine the interrelationship between social support, risk-level, and safety actions for 2 groups of suicidal adolescents (50 attempters and 50 ideators), who had presented for an acute assessment at an outpatient mental health service. A social support model was proposed in which it was thought that information related to patients' social support would impact upon the types of risk-level and safety actions made by clinicians. Data was collected from a total of 100 patient files, utilizing the acute assessment reports (e.g., reports assessing risk of self-harm). Findings show that groups differed significantly on indices of negative support severity, positive support, and risk-level. Limited support was found for the proposed social support model. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.     

Age estimation by occlusal tooth wear

The purpose of the present investigation was to test the accuracy of a new scoring system in recording tooth wear for age estimation. The material consisted of dental stone casts of 383 volunteers who had sound premolars and molars with normal occlusion. The degree of occlusal wear for all premolar and molar teeth was scored with the new system. The high intra- and inter-examiner concordances showed that the new score system was very reliable. The degree of tooth wear showed a significant positive correlation with age in each and every examined tooth of both males and females. Tooth wear scores of males were higher than those of females. Calculating tables for age estimation were designed and the accuracy of age estimation was obtained with the General Linear Models procedures. Our system could provide estimation of an individual's age within +/-3 years in 42.4% of males and 49.4% of females, within +/-5 years in 61.8% of males and 63.3% of females. When the subjects were divided into two age groups and data were re-treated, the accuracy of age estimation was increased. Collectively, it was shown that our new system for scoring tooth wear is a reliable and accurate method for age estimation.     

The comparison of toluene determination between headspace-solid phase microextraction and headspace methods in glue-sniffer's blood and urine samples

An accurate and simple method was developed to determine the level of toluene in urine and blood quantitatively by using the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) with headspace--solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) technique. An assembly of SPME with a replaceable extraction fiber, coated with 100 microm polydimethylsiloxane, was used. The detection limit of toluene in blood and urine with HS-SPME technique was 10 times higher than that with headspace (HS) technique. To compare the HS-SPME with HS technique for the determination of toluene in biological fluids, blood and urine samples from glue sniffers were analyzed by both methods. The level of toluene by the two techniques was highly correlated: the correlation coefficient (r2) between the two sets of values were 0.98 and 0.96 in urine and blood, respectively.     

A sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for ABO blood typing of semen by using anti-p 84 monoclonal antibody as a marker of blood group substance in semen

A blood group substance (BGS), a protein with ABH antigenic activity, was isolated from human seminal plasma and designated as p 84 (Sato, 1995). We have developed a method for determining the ABO blood type of semen by performing a sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in which p 84 is captured with an anti-p 84 monoclonal antibody, and evaluated the specificity and sensitivity of this method. Although BGS activity was detected in semen sensitively by this method, it was not detected in saliva, urine, breast milk, blood or vaginal secretions. Since the concentration of p 84 in semen was independent of the secretion status, the status can be determined as non-secretor when p 84 but not BGS activity was detected. To determine the stability of BGS activity on p 84, dried stains of semen on filter paper were kept at 4, 26, and 37 degrees C for 8 months, 2 years and 1 month, respectively, and their BGS activities were examined. After 8 months at 4 degrees C, over 60% of the original BGS activity was recovered from the stain. The activity could be detected even from a square as small as 0.25 by 0.25 cm. After 1 month at 37 degrees C and 2 years at 26 degrees C, 31 and 20% of the BGS activity, respectively, still remained. It could be detected from the pieces of 1.0 by 1.0 cm and 0.5 by 0.5 cm squares, kept for 1 month at 37 degrees C and 2 years at 26 degrees C, respectively. Finally, semen was mixed with saliva or blood at varying volumetric ratios and used for the sources of dried stains. The BGS activity of p 84 could be detected in the stains until the ratio between semen and saliva or blood reached 1:4. We conclude that this sandwich ELISA offers a more sensitive and specific method for determining the ABO blood type of semen samples obtained from sexual assault victims than existing methods, such as the conventional absorption-elution and classical hemagglutination-inhibition tests.     

Fatal aspiration of sardine fry in a patient with lung cancer

We report a fatal case of death due to unusual aspiration of sardine fry in an elderly Japanese man with lung cancer. The cause of death was sudden respiratory arrest while eating. Autopsy revealed peculiar materials with cell nests and pigmented particles, together with striated muscle and skin, in the ectatic bronchioles of the left lower lobe. Serial histologic sections suggested that the structures observed were the eyeballs of small animals that appeared to have been inhaled. The patient had habitually eaten sardine fry and rice gruel, which were also detected in the gastric contents. Therefore, the eyes were considered to be those of the fry, which is a popular food item in Japan. This was confirmed by histologic examination of fry that were obtained commercially.