Areal interpolation and the UK's referendum on EU membership

I show how results from the United Kingdom's referendum on membership of the European Union can be remapped from local authority level to parliamentary constituency level through the use of a scaled Poisson regression model which incorporates demographic information from lower level geographies. I use these estimates to show how the geographic distribution of signatures to a petition for a second referendum was strongly associated with how constituencies voted in the actual referendum.     

Book reviews

Of Camel Kings and Other Things: Rural Rebels against Modernity in Late Imperial China, by Roxann Prazniak. Lanham, MD and Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999. Pp.xiii + 305. £50/US$69 (hardback); £18.95/US$24.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 8476 9006 7 and 9007 5

Images of the Medieval Peasant, by Paul Freedman. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999. Pp.xix + 459. £37.50/US$65 (hardback); £13.95/US$22.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 8047 3372 4 and 3373 2

’Ir aigen libertet’: Waldburg, Habsburg und der bäuerliche Widerstandan der oberen Donau 1590–1790, by Martin Zürn (Oberschwaben ‐ Geschichte und Kultur 2). Tubingen: Bibliotheca Academica, 1998. Pp.814. DM78 (hardback). ISBN 3 928471 15 5

Economics of Marketable Surplus Supply: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis for China by Ping Zong and John Davis. Aldershot: Ashgate, 1998. Pp.xiv + 206. £42 (hardback). ISBN 1 84014 335 5

Cadres and Kin: Making a Socialist Village in West China, 1921–1991 by Gregory A. Ruff. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1998. Pp.xix + 249. £30AJS$49.50 (hardback). ISBN 08047 3377 5     

Judicial Disagreement need not be Political: Dissent on the Estonian Supreme Court

I investigate the non-unanimous decisions of judges on the Estonian Supreme Court. I argue that since judges on the court enjoy high de jure independence, dissent frequently, and are integrated in the normal judicial hierarchy, the Estonian Supreme Court is a crucial case for the presumption that judicial disagreement reveals policy preferences. I analyse dissenting opinions using an ideal point response model. Examining the characteristics of cases which discriminated with respect to the recovered dimension, I show that this dimension cannot be interpreted as a meaningful policy dimension, but instead reflects disagreement about the proper scope of constitutional redress.