The relevance of legitimation – a new framework for analysis

ABSTRACT

The legitimacy of political orders is an important reference point in political analysis, but the concept is difficult to operationalize and measure – particularly in those countries where legitimacy is critical, i.e. cases of political transformation, non-democratic rule and high state fragility. To be successful, legitimation (the process by which legitimacy is procured) has to fulfil two functions: relate demands for legitimation to government performance (the ‘demand cycle’), and relate legitimacy claims issued by the rulers to behavioural patterns of the ruled (the ‘supply cycle’). Looking at the recent academic debate, the article finds that empirical research has largely ignored the demand cycle, while attempts to explore the relationships underlying the supply cycle tend to suffer from misconceptions of basic terms. The article proposes a framework for empirical enquiry that addresses both shortcomings.     

Neglected challenges to evidence-based policy-making: the problem of policy accumulation

Claims for evidence-based policy-making are motivated by the assumption that if practitioners and scholars want to learn about effective policy design, they also can. This paper argues that this is becoming more and more challenging with the conventional approaches due to the accumulation of national policy portfolios, characterized by (a) a growing number of different policy targets and instruments, that (b) are often interdependent and (c) reformed in an uncontrolled way. These factors undermine our ability to accurately relate outcome changes to individual components within the respective policy mix. Therefore, policy accumulation becomes an additional source of the well-known ‘attribution problem’ in evaluation research. We argue that policy accumulation poses fundamental challenges to existing approaches of evidence-based policy-making. Moreover, these challenges are very likely to create a trade-off between the need for increasing methodological sophistication on one side, and the decreasing political impact of more fine-grained and conditional findings of evaluation results on the other.     

Perceived Organizational Red Tape and Organizational Performance in Public Services

The claim that perceived organizational red tape hampers public services has become a central theme in public administration research. Surprisingly, however, few scholars have empirically examined the impact of perceived red tape on organizational performance. This article empirically analyzes how perceived organizational red tape among managers and frontline staff relates to objectively measured performance. The data consist of survey responses from teachers and principals at Danish upper secondary schools combined with grade‐level administrative performance data. Based on theories of red tape and motivation crowding, the authors hypothesize that perceived organizational red tape reduces performance within such organizations. The empirical result is a small negative relationship between staff perception of red tape and performance and no relationship between manager‐perceived red tape and performance.     

Party performance explains disagreement between politicians and their parties

Are politicians more likely to disagree with their party after an electoral defeat or during a spell in opposition? If so, are they likely to advocate a more moderate or a more radical position than their party? In order to evaluate this, the article analyses the absolute distance between candidates for parliament and their parties on the left–right dimension. The sample used consists of 5614 politicians from 11 countries (Comparative Candidate Survey). Controlling for party system differences and individual characteristics, the results demonstrate that politicians take more moderate positions than their party after an electoral defeat. Also politicians of government parties are surprisingly more likely to disagree than politicians of opposition parties. These results overlap with predictions of party position shifts and inform the discussion on how intra-party dynamics bring about changes in party position. In addition, the article finds evidence of loss aversion, and differences in the responsiveness of elite and non-elite candidates.     

Interdependenz und ideologische position: Die konditionale Diffusion der Zigarettenbesteuerung in den US-amerikanischen Bundesstaaten 1971–2006

This paper inquires into the interdependence of cigarette taxation in the US states between 1971 and 2006. It is argued that diffusion influences emanating from the tax policies of other states have an effect that is conditional upon the government ideology in a focal state. Specifically, it is shown that only those state governments that are not positioned on the far right end of an ideology continuum use an environment of high cigarette taxes to pursue their fiscal and health policy goals. At the same time, interventionist ideology can only be effective if it operates within a favorable policy environment. I argue that casting policy diffusion as conditional allows for empirically more accurate and theoretically richer models.     

History and perceptions of regionalism in Botswana, 1891–2005

Although economic, political, ethnic and religious factors have led to regionalisms and other divides, causing civil strife and civil wars in many countries, in Botswana the north–south divide existed for a long time merely as a political undercurrent. However, the turn of the twenty-first century saw the explosion of issues motivated by perceptions that it was the north–south divide that caused imbalance in the provision of infrastructural development and ethnic inequality. This article traces the north–south divide in Botswana back to the early British colonial enterprise, when it was used for administrative convenience. Although in the post-colony the first president handled the situation pro-actively, his successors abandoned this approach. Regionalism ensued as personal ambitions for power and wealth took political and sometimes tribal dimensions. Ethnic identities were used to bolster campaigns despite the fact that identities in Botswana are multiple and multilayered rather than mutually exclusive.     

A 24-Year Follow-up Study on Recidivism in Male Mentally Disordered Sexual Offenders With and Without Psychotic Disorders

There is a lack of knowledge on mentally disordered sex offenders (MDSOs) targeting adult victims, especially regarding recidivism patterns and the specific subgroup with psychiatric disorders. This paper presents index offense data, clinical data, and recidivism patterns over up to 24 years in a cohort of 146 MDSOs, with and without psychotic disorders, sentenced in Sweden between 1993 and 1997. At the time of the offense, all offenders were affected by clinical, developmental, and criminal history factors. MDSOs with psychotic disorders only marginally differed from those without, the former being less likely to have been institutionalized during childhood, intoxicated during the index offense, or diagnosed with a personality disorder, substance use disorder, or paraphilic disorder. In the cohort, 3.4% of the MDSOs were reconvicted for a new sex offense over 2 years, 9.6% over 5 years, 13.0% over 10 years, and 17.1% over the entire follow-up period of 24 years. In MDSOs with psychotic disorders, no subjects were reconvicted during the first 2 years, while 2.6% were reconvicted over 5 years, 5.3% over 10 years, and 7.9% over 24 years. Recidivism rates for violent and general reoffenses were 39.0% and 37.7%, respectively, for the cohort of MDSOs, and subjects with psychotic disorders reoffended significantly later in general offenses. In conclusion, MDSOs with psychotic disorders showed the same recidivism pattern as MDSOs without psychotic disorders. Furthermore, recidivism research may preferably focus on follow-up periods of 5–10 years since most offenders appear to recidivate within this timeframe.     

Randomized experiments by government institutions and American political development

Public Choice - Are the methods of causal inference and, in particular, randomized controlled trials, compatible with the study of political history? While many important questions regarding...     

Patrons against clients: Electoral uncertainty and bureaucratic tenure in politicized states

Why would incumbents undertake institutional reforms that constrain their discretion over state resources? Many studies point to electoral competition in response. They argue that incumbents who risk exit from office undertake reform to insure themselves against potentially hostile successors. This paper challenges this line of reasoning, arguing that it confounds two potential implications of electoral competition – potential and certain electoral losses – which yield contrary reform incentives. Certain exits from office may well incentivize reforms as insurance. Where elections are contested, however, incumbents face incentives to resist reforms that constrain discretion over state resources that provide incumbents with electoral advantage. This argument is developed and assessed with an institutional reform the literature has so far neglected: job stability protections (tenure) in politicized bureaucracies. A case analysis of the Dominican Republic and suggestive cross‐country data confirm theoretical predictions: electoral uncertainty dis‐incentivizes tenure reform. Electoral competition may thus be a double‐edged sword for institutional reform.