The dimensions of dangerousness revisited

In this article, we extend our previous study on clinical predictions of violence using the Dangerous Behavior Rating Scale by increasing follow-up interval from 2 to 6 years and supplying new data on prediction-outcome correlations for multidiscipline assessors. A total of 162 accused persons remanded for evaluations at METFORS were assessed using three criterion measures: subsequent violence, criminality, and general incidents. Statistical analyses revealed a range of predictive performance, contingent on several conditions including the identities of evaluators, categories of subjects, and length and context of follow-up. Even prognostications yielding the highest magnitude coefficients, reaching 53 in the case of psychometric forecasts of behavior in psychiatric hospitals, failed to account for more than 28% of the prediction-outcome covariance. Implications of the results are considered for the future role of the dangerousness construct.The research project described in this article was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Canadian Psychiatric Research Foundation, the Solicitor General Canada, the LaMarsh Research Program on Violence and Conflict Resolution, the Ontario Ministry of Health, Simon Fraser University, the Clarke Institute of Psychiatry, and the psychopathy project supported under the sustaining grant provided by the Solicitor General, Canada, to the Centre of Criminology, University of Toronto. Thanks for their perceptive commentaries to Ronald Roesch and the two anonymous reviewers ofLaw and Human Behavior. Acknowledged as well are the contributions of the many research assistants and representatives of mental health, police, justice, and correctional agencies who collaborated in the compilation of these data. Research assistance was provided by Michelle Grossman, Simon Hanbury, Lily Keoskerian, Ed Tymosiak, and Cheri Wilner. Bill Glackman offered technical help with the data analysis. A version of this paper was originally presented at the 1991 Meeting of the American Society of Criminology in San Francisco.Clarke Institute of Psychiatr     

Social psychology,demographic variables,and linear regression: Breaking the iron triangle in voting research

A previous paper showed that a simple prospective model of voting and party identification subsumed much of the social-psychological and retrospective voting literatures, in the sense that it rigorously implied their key findings and added many new ones as well. This paper extends the argument by showing that the same prospective voting model has drastic implications for conventional statistical specifications in voting research. First, linear models should be discarded in favor of a particular nonlinear specification. Second, demographics should be dropped from the list of independent variables.     

Conceptual issues in the study of centralization and information technology

Abstract: Growing government reliance on information technology for decision-making and the delivery of public services spotlights the contemporary relevance of the centralization debate. The view that the employment of advanced technology by bureaucracies will dispossess local actors of their policy-making autonomy provides the foundations for a substantial body of literature on information technology and organizational change. The reliance of past research on anecdotal or case data casts doubt on the theoretical and empirical soundness of this proposition. Findings have contributed few reliable generalizations about the ways in which the locus of authority between a government agency and its field service shifts. This paper offers a revised approach to characterizing an administrative system as moving towards centralization over time. Assumptions about the nature and direction of causal influence for conceptualizing centralization as a dynamic process are explored. An issue-centered approach and process orientation are proposed to assess changes to the relative distribution of power between field and headquarters. An acknowledgment and understanding of these refinements serve as a basis for future empirical research. Sommaire: La dépendance croissante du gouvernement à I'égard de la technologie de I'information, pour ce qui a trait aux prises de décision et à I'offre de services publics souligne bien la pertinence contemporaine d'un ddbat sur la centralisation. L'une des principales observations notées dans la littérature sur I'informatique indique que le recours à une technologie de pointe mène inévitablement a une plus grande centralisation des décisions dans le domaine des politiques administratives. Bien que les documents ex-istants fournissent le cadre nécessaire à la plus grande partie des réflexions théoriques, presque tous évitent ou ignorent les considérations de méthodologie. On sait bien peu de choses sur les glissements de pouvoir qui s'opèrent entre un organisme gouvernemental et ses services sur le terrain. L'auteur propose ici une nouvelle approche pour caractériser un systéme administratif en processus dorientation vets une plus grande centralisation. Il explore les hypothèses sur la nature et I'orientation de I'influence causale pour con-ceptualiser la centralisation en tant que processus dynamique. II propose une approche centrée sur les problèmes et une orientation fondée sur les processus pour évaluer les changements quant h la distribution relative des pouvoirs entre les services sur le terrain et le bureau principal. La prise en compte et la compréhension de ces rafhements servent de fondement à de futures recherches empiriques.     

Simple rules for a complex regulatory world: the case of financial regulation

European Journal of Law and Economics - Twenty-five years ago Richard Epstein published Simple Rules for a Complex World, which would go on to become one of Epstein’s most influential works....     

Implementing Democratic Equality in Political Parties: Organisational Consequences in the Swedish and the German Pirate Parties

This article theorises and empirically assesses some important intra‐organisational implications of maximising democratic equality in political parties both between followers and members and between members and elites. They include weak member commitment, passivity of the rank‐and‐file membership and – depending on party structure – high levels of internal conflict. To substantiate the arguments, two parties that implement principles of democratic equality in their organisations are examined: the Swedish and German Pirate parties. These cases show, first, that while organisational structures implementing norms of equality allowed them to rapidly mobilise a considerable following, the same structures systematically reduced their capacity to consolidate support in the longer term – a weakness that might eventually put these parties' survival at risk. Second, they show that differences in the extent to which subnational units provide a foundation for member mobilisation helps to explain variation in the level of internal conflict experienced by these parties.