Civic Duty and Voter Turnout

We argue that two different sets of considerations shape the decision to vote or abstain in an election–ethical and non-ethical. First the citizen may vote out of a sense of duty. Failing that, she may vote because she has strong preferences about the outcome of the election. Abstention occurs when neither duty nor a sufficiently strong preference is present. The implication is that while duty and preference each have strong positive effects on turnout, they also have a negative interaction effect, since the impact of preference is much weaker among those with a sense of duty. We present a wide array of empirical evidence that systematically supports our claim that the turnout decision is importantly shaped by this causal heterogeneity. Thus a turnout model misses something fundamental if it does not take into account the effect of civic duty.

     

LONGEVITY‐RELATED OPTIONS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY: A MICROSIMULATION APPROACH TO RETIREMENT AGE AND MORTALITY ADJUSTMENTS

We consider the distributional implications of Social Security policy changes in the context of increases in life expectancy and differential mortality. Using a robust microsimulation model, we examine how several options for raising the retirement age, including a scenario that applies a mortality adjustment in combination with such policies, affect different types of individuals and households. Policy changes are simulated for Social Security beneficiaries in 2030 using the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model. The analysis shows that increasing either the age at which individuals receive their full retirement benefit alone or the early eligibility and full retirement ages together result in across‐the‐board reductions in benefit levels. The policies are projected to result in slightly higher poverty, but the expected rise is sharper among groups known to experience higher rates of mortality, as well as many disadvantaged groups. Analysis of a hypothetical adjustment to offset the historical impacts of differential mortality by lifetime earnings on lifetime benefit receipt, when combined with these retirement age increases, shows varied results. While some groups of individuals experience sharper reductions in median monthly benefits, the adjustment has an offsetting and protective effect for the benefits of disadvantaged groups when combined with options that would raise the retirement age. This combined package of policies, as well as simulations that incorporate a behavioral adjustment in benefit claiming ages, result in an increase of less than one percentage point in the average poverty rate.     

Mass Media and Electoral Preferences During the 2016 US Presidential Race

Political Behavior - This paper uses analyses of commercial polls alongside content-analytic measures of sentiment in the content of nine newspapers to explore the relationship between voter...     

Toward a Conceptual Framework of Emotional Relationship Marketing: An Examination of Two UK Political Parties

The purpose of this paper is to review the notion of branding and evaluate its applicability to political parties. As ideological politics is in decline, branding may provide a consistent narrative where voters feel a sense of warmth and belonging. The paper aims to build an understanding of the complexity of building a political brand where a combination of image, logo, leadership, and values can all contribute to a compelling brand narrative. It investigates how competing positive and negative messages attempt to build and distort the brand identity. A critical review of branding, relationship marketing, and political science literature articulates the conceptual development of branding and its applicability to political parties. The success or failure of negative campaigning is due to the authenticity of a political party's brand values—creating a coherent brand story—if there is no distance between the brand values articulated by the political party and the values their community perceives then this creates an “authentic” brand. However, if there is a gap this paper illustrates how negative campaigning can be used to build a “doppelgänger brand,” which undermines the credibility of the authentic political brand. The paper argues that political parties need to understand how brand stories are developed but also how they can be used to protect against negative advertising. This has implications for political marketing strategists and political parties. This paper draws together branding theory and relationship marketing and incorporates them into a framework that makes a contribution to the political marketing literature.     

Regulatory capitalism and its discontents: Bilateral interdependence and the adaptability of regulatory styles

The expansion of global trade has produced new challenges for the effective governance of product safety. We argue that many of these challenges arise at the bilateral level from the interaction of more or less adaptable national regulatory styles. When regulatory styles are unadaptable they produce gaps in risk management, slow and contested resolutions to crises, and limited regulatory cooperation. To examine these claims empirically, we study bilateral food safety regulation in four major exporter–importer dyads: China–Japan; Canada–United States (US), China–European Union (EU), and the US–Japan. The China–Japan dyad is the most adaptable, combining China's “export segmentation” regulatory style with Japan's strongly “risk‐averse, interventionist” style. The Canada–US dyad operates effectively, bringing together Canada's “global market–conforming” regulatory style with the US strategy of “sovereign regulator.” The China–EU dyad is less adaptable because the EU's “harmonization” regulatory style makes it difficult for the EU to adapt to the weaknesses of the Chinese food safety system. Finally, the US's sovereign regulator style clashes with Japan's interventionist style, making them the least adaptable of the four dyads. The paper concludes with a discussion of the broader relevance of our findings for the development of regulatory capitalism.     

Prevention of sexual violence by those who have been sexually violent

This article argues that indeterminate sentencing is the optimal means of preventing recidivism among sex offenders, both as an instrumental matter and jurisprudentially. Once a person is convicted of an offense, the duration and nature of sentence should be based on a back-end decision made by experts in recidivism reduction, within broad ranges set by the legislature. This position is defended against a number of objections, including claims that such a system relies on flawed risk assessments, ignores societal views of justice, denigrates offenders and victims, undermines deterrence and norm enforcement, depends too heavily on costly, uneven and demoralizing risk management schemes, and, as a result of one or more of these objections, is unconstitutional.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

State mortgage foreclosure policies and lender interventions: Impacts on borrower behavior in default

Due to the rise in foreclosure filings, policymakers are increasingly concerned with helping families in financial distress keep their homes. This paper tests the extent to which distressed mortgage borrowers benefit from three types of state foreclosure polices: (1) judicial foreclosure proceedings, (2) statutory rights of redemption, and (3) statewide foreclosure‐prevention initiatives. Based on an analysis of borrowers in default who reside in 22 cross‐state metropolitan statistical area pairs, state policies generally have weak effects. Both judicial foreclosure proceedings and foreclosure prevention initiatives are associated with modest increases in loan modification rates. Using a matching procedure, a lender's letter promoting mortgage default counseling was associated with increases in loan modifications, decreases in loan cures, and decreases in foreclosure starts. The effects of the letter were also stronger in states with judicial proceedings. © 2011 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.