Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.     

A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case

The measurement of bias in election results, whereby one or more parties are advantaged in the translation of votes into seats at the expense of others, is attracting increasing attention. So far, almost all of the analytical work – aimed at both identifying the extent of bias in an election result and establishing its causes – has focused on either two-party systems or on the largest two parties in multi-party systems. Building on the firm foundations of one such approach, this paper introduces an original procedure for analysing bias in three-party systems using a readily-appreciated metric for both evaluating the degree of bias and decomposing it into the various causal factors. This is illustrated using the example of the 2005 British general election and a comparison of the results from two-party and three-party analyses of six recent elections there.     

Where Are Sino-U.S. Relations Headed?

Sino-U.S.relations have fluctuated since the beginning of 2010. What are prospects for their development? Will it be fiercer strategic competition or will it be long-term strategic stability? Taking into the international system and transitions in global power,this essay analyzes recent changes in Sino-U.S. relations and U.S. strategic assessment of China. Prospects for and future trends in Sino-U.S. relations will be discussed. Since Sino-U.S. relations have always been based on the interaction of multiple...     

Latin America:Key Trends and Challenges

The first decade of the 21st century has been an important period for Latin America’s modernization. In the face of rapid economic globalization and a changing global order,most countries in the region have been carefully reflecting on their development paths. After a decade of adjustments and reforms,great changes have been seen in terms of politics,economics,society,and diplomacy. Many governments in the region are also facing serious challenges. The next decade will therefore also be a key period for the...     

Changing Geopolitics and Its Impact on China

In the next 5 to 10 years,the world may well see two risings- the rising of the developing countries as a group,and the rising of Asia-Pacific as a region. The world geopolitical picture would shift eastwards accordingly. On the world strategic map,the developing countries and the Asia-Pacific region would hold a superior position and the developed countries and the Euro-Atlantic would have a relatively inferior position. As such,we will see a lot of changes in the concept of geopolitics. To China,these cha...     

Strategic Orientation and Prospects of SCO

The maturing Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) now has the potential to become an important stabilizer for Eurasia.As a multilateral international mechanism,the SCO should base its core values on a Eurasian Doctrine. Such a doctrine should take Eurasia as a single geopolitical region,a united geo-economic space and a broad platform for multiple cultural exchanges. The SCO’s future agenda should include: further development as a multi-function political,economic and security organization; expansion fro...     

9/11 and Global Strategic Stability

In the past ten years since 9/11, terrorism has become a growing threat to international security, and to people’s lives and property. Increasing incidents of terrorism have underlined the fundamental structural flaws in the international system, showing that American hegemony has reached a certain limit. Not only have the major security concerns of the United States changed, but existing international strategic relations have also been shaken. This has directly affected global strategic stability.