A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case

The measurement of bias in election results, whereby one or more parties are advantaged in the translation of votes into seats at the expense of others, is attracting increasing attention. So far, almost all of the analytical work – aimed at both identifying the extent of bias in an election result and establishing its causes – has focused on either two-party systems or on the largest two parties in multi-party systems. Building on the firm foundations of one such approach, this paper introduces an original procedure for analysing bias in three-party systems using a readily-appreciated metric for both evaluating the degree of bias and decomposing it into the various causal factors. This is illustrated using the example of the 2005 British general election and a comparison of the results from two-party and three-party analyses of six recent elections there.     

Where Are Sino-U.S. Relations Headed?

Sino-U.S.relations have fluctuated since the beginning of 2010. What are prospects for their development? Will it be fiercer strategic competition or will it be long-term strategic stability? Taking into the international system and transitions in global power,this essay analyzes recent changes in Sino-U.S. relations and U.S. strategic assessment of China. Prospects for and future trends in Sino-U.S. relations will be discussed. Since Sino-U.S. relations have always been based on the interaction of multiple...     

A Disruptive Influence? “Prevent‐ing” Problems and Countering Violent Extremism Policy in Practice

This article describes how disrupting the activities of suspected violent extremists has become an increasingly significant construct in the policy and practice of the Prevent strand of UK Counter‐Terrorism. Informed by empirical data collected during semi‐structured interviews with police officers involved in conducting disruptions and members of the communities where these occurred, blended with a limited amount of field observation, the analysis documents how and why a logic of disruption has assumed increasing prominence in counter terrorism work. In respect of police interventions in particular, implementing disruptions, rather than pursuing fully‐fledged prosecutions, represents a pragmatic way of reconciling increasing demand with limited resources, as well as managing some of the difficulties of translating intelligence into legal evidence. Conceptualized in this way, the analysis positions disruption as a distinctive mode of crime prevention; one premised upon logics of near‐event interdiction. As such, it is understood as rather different in its operations and functions to other forms of “early intervention” that are increasingly prominent in much contemporary crime prevention policy. By focusing upon how specific Prevent interventions are implemented and performed this analysis makes a particular contribution to our knowledge of counter terrorism work. This reflects the fact that most previous studies of Prevent and other countering violent extremism programs have provided analyses of community perceptions and reactions to policing and the policy frame, rather than the configuration of the interventions themselves.     

论日本的朝鲜半岛政策与日韩邦交正常化

“二战”后日本总的朝鲜半岛政策就是“两个朝鲜”政策。以此为前提,在不同的历史时期,日本根。据国际、国内形势的变化,采取了不同的具体对韩政策。20世纪60年代以前,处于战后复兴阶段的日本,为自身的国家利益考虑,在对朝鲜半岛殖民统治的认识、韩国对日请求权、日韩渔业纷争、在日朝鲜人等问题上对韩采取了强硬政策。之后,随着日本经济的高速增长和美国东亚政策的调整,日本从现实的国家利益及配合美国的东亚战略的角度出发,搁置日韩在殖民统治认识问题上的争议,迅速着手解决影响当代日韩关系发展的最大障碍——韩国对日请求权问题和日韩渔业纷争问题,实现了日韩邦交正常化。     

Working with children as stakeholders in development: the challenges of organisational change

This article considers the challenges of promoting children's participation in development programming. It argues against the tendency to see the main obstacle to achieving this aim as technical. Instead it explores the institutional dimensions of change that may be required. The experience of a four-year process of training and organisational review within Save the Children Denmark provides the substance for reflection about the kinds of cultural and structural change that are implicated in enabling a development organisation to become capable of engaging young people as stakeholders in a meaningful and sustainable manner.     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

南水北调中线工程与河南省区域联合治理机制研究

南水北调工程是一个典型跨主体、跨行业、跨期和跨行政区域的水利工程,繁杂的工程建设以及信息不对称和管理认识上的滞后,管理者往往低估了各种潜在风险对工程的影响。本文从南水北调工程与河南区域关系特征入手,分析了两者间存在的问题,在此基础上,从理顺治理结构、探索具有激励相容的工程区域合作模式、选择可行的政策工具组合、从博弈论角度构建工程区域关系、引入工程影响评价机制等角度提出了对策建议。