东盟国家处理海域争端的方式及其对解决南海主权争端的启示

东盟国家在解决南海以外的海域争端时,基本上采用以下三种方式:对争议海域进行共同开发;通过提交国际法院裁决;武力对抗加政治谈判。从实践来看,不同方式取得了不同的效果。近年来,东盟部分成员国采用不同方式不断侵占中国的南海海域,使南海问题呈现越来越复杂的态势。中国在南海主权争端中,面临来自东盟国家的巨大挑战,如何解决南海海域争端已成为中国与部分东盟国家面临的最棘手问题。东盟国家解决海域争端的方式,对于解决南海主权争端提供了一定的启示。     

Sample Size Determination for Categorical Responses

Abstract:  Procedures are reviewed and recommendations made for the choice of the size of a sample to estimate the characteristics (sometimes known as parameters) of a population consisting of discrete items which may belong to one and only one of a number of categories with examples drawn from forensic science. Four sampling procedures are described for binary responses, where the number of possible categories is only two, e.g., licit or illicit pills. One is based on priors informed from historical data. The other three are sequential. The first of these is a sequential probability ratio test with a stopping rule derived by controlling the probabilities of type 1 and type 2 errors. The second is a sequential variation of a procedure based on the predictive distribution of the data yet to be inspected and the distribution of the data that have been inspected, with a stopping rule determined by a prespecified threshold on the probability of a wrong decision. The third is a two-sided sequential criterion which stops sampling when one of two competitive hypotheses has a probability of being accepted which is larger than another prespecified threshold. The fifth procedure extends the ideas developed for binary responses to multinomial responses where the number of possible categories (e.g., types of drug or types of glass) may be more than two. The procedure is sequential and recommends stopping when the joint probability interval or ellipsoid for the estimates of the proportions is less than a given threshold in size. For trinomial data this last procedure is illustrated with a ternary diagram with an ellipse formed around the sample proportions. There is a straightforward generalization of this approach to multinomial populations with more than three categories. A conclusion provides recommendations for sampling procedures in various contexts.     

Social media video analysis methodology for sarin exposure

As social media becomes increasingly ubiquitous, many events are recorded and released on social media platforms, including chemical weapon attacks. We develop an objective tool in order to evaluate brief and unstructured social media videos for analysing sarin exposure from a civilian medical pathology perspective. We developed and validated this new questionnaire using a standardized procedure that includes content domain specification, item pool generation, content validity evaluation, a pilot study, and assessment of reliability and validity. In total, 51 sarin attacks and 48 matched videos were analysed. Cronbach’s α for all 20 items was 0.75, which indicates adequate internal reliability. The test–retest reliability was 0.96, which indicates good internal reliability. The inter-observer intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.97. After verifying sampling adequacy with the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin measure and the factorability of the items with Barlett’s test of sphericity, a factor analysis was performed. According to the principal axis factoring, a six-factor solution explained 51.86% of the total variance. The receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the Video Score Questionnaire has a sensitivity of 0.817, a specificity of 0.478, and an efficiency of 65.3. Therefore, the Video Score Questionnaire is reliable and valid for evaluating sarin attacks from brief and unstructured social media videos.

Key points

• Chemical weapons are still used as a method of warfare.
• Social media videos are an important source of information.
• We developed a validated scale which can analyse sarin exposure in short and unstructured videos.

     

Inaction and public policy: understanding why policymakers ‘do nothing’

Policy Sciences - In recent decades, the policy sciences have struggled to come to terms with the significance of inaction in public policy. Inaction refers to instances when policymakers ‘do...     

Banking regulation,regulatory capture and inequality

Public Choice - Regulation of the banking and finance industry may lead to a more equal distribution of income if regulators pursue goals in the public interest. Alternatively, the economic theory...     

Government Promotion of Corporate Social Responsibility: Evidence from the EU Eco‐Management and Audit Scheme

Governments play an active role in promoting corporate social responsibility and specifically environmental management system (EMS) programs, but few studies have examined the impact of such support on the decision of businesses to adopt EMS programs. We ask two questions in this paper: how does government support for EMS programs affect adoption of such programs? Second, what effect does this government support have on the pace of adoption of such programs? The answer to the first question can reveal how effective government programs are in boosting membership in EMS programs. The answer to the second reveals to what extent businesses within EU member states are converging upon particular EMS standards. We examine these questions in the context of the European Union’s Eco‐Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS), 2010–2014. There is significant variation in government support of EMAS across the EU and at the same time, EMAS competes for business attention with the more established ISO 14001. Our quantitative and qualitative analyses therefore reveal the effectiveness of government programs in boosting adoption, but also to the extent to which such programs cause convergence upon EMAS in the face of a competing standard such as ISO 14001.     

Hybrid Strategies: The American Experience

The United States has never followed only one grand strategy at a time. In this article, I develop the concept of “hybrid” grand strategies—strategies that vary by time and place, and combine the advantages (or disadvantages) of pure strategic archetypes such as containment, integration, regime change, bargaining, or non-intervention. I argue that hybrid strategies have been ubiquitous in American history, varying more by emphasis and degree than by absolute contrast. Moreover, U.S. hybrid strategies have often succeeded in accomplishing their major goals.     

How Do Police Respond to Stalking? An Examination of the Risk Management Strategies and Tactics Used in a Specialized Anti-Stalking Law Enforcement Unit

How do police respond to and manage complaints of stalking? To answer this question, we conducted a 3-phase study. First, we reviewed the literature to identify risk management tactics used to combat stalking. Second, we asked a group of police officers to review those tactics for completeness and group them into categories reflecting more general risk management strategies. The result was 22 categories of strategies. Finally, we used qualitative methods to evaluate the files of 32 cases referred to the specialized anti-stalking unit of a metropolitan police department. We coded specific risk management tactics and strategies used by police. Results indicated that a median number of 19 specific tactics from 7 general strategies were used to manage risk. Also, the implementation of strategies and tactics reflected specific characteristics of the cases (e.g., perpetrator risk factors, victim vulnerability factors), suggesting that the risk management decisions made by police were indeed strategic in nature. Qualitative analyses indicated that some of the strategies and tactics were more effective than others. We discuss how these findings can be used to understand and use stalking risk management more generally, as well as improve research on the efficacy of risk assessment and management for stalking.