A Far-Reaching Strategy

<正>The U.S.and Chinese economies are closely intertwined.When China’s economy is strong,ours can prosper as well.When China’s economy falters,theAmerican economy also suffers.We share many common challenges that neither side can address alone,such as the battle to combat global climate change,which already     

B. Reviews: general

EUROPE'S FUTURE IN THE ARAB VIEW. Edited by Dieter Beilenstein. (Paper of the Institute for International Relations, No.7), Saarbrücken, Breitenbach, 1981. pp.163.

A CHANGING IMAGE: AMERICAN PERCEPTIONS OF THE ARAB‐ISRAELI DISPUTE. By Richard H. Curtiss. Washing D.C., American Educational Trust, 1982.

THE BATTLE OF BEIRUT: WHY ISRAEL INVADED LEBANON. By Michael Jensen. London, Zed Press, 1982.

FIRE OF ISLAM. By Desmond Meiring. London, Wildwood House, 1982.

PUBLIC DUTIES IN ISLAM: THE INSTITUTION OF THE HISBA. By Ibn Taymiya, Al‐Shaykh Al‐Imam Taqi Al‐Din Ahmad (trans. Mukhtar Holland). (Islamic Economic Series 3), Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1982.

ISSUES IN ISLAMIC BANKING: SELECTED PAPERS. By M.N.Siddiqui. (Islamic Economic Series, 4), Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1983.

REGESTEN PUBLIZIERTER SAFAWIDISCHER HERRSCHERURKUNDEN: ERLASSE UND STAATSSCHREIBEN DER FRUHEN NEUZEIT IRANS. By Renate. Schimkoreit. (Islamkuhdliche Untersuchungen, Bd 68), Berlin, Klaus Shwarz Verlag, 1982. pp. 552. DM.87.

THE HISTORY OF THE BRITISH PETROLEUM COMPANY.‐ VOLUME I: THE DEVELOPING YEARS 1901–1932.. By R.W.Ferrier. Cambridge University Press, 1982. pp.801. £37.50.

THE CHALLENGE OF ENERGY: POLICIES IN THE MAKING. Edited by Mohammad W. Khouja. (Energy Resources and Policies of the Middle East and North Africa.) London‐New York, Longman, 1981. pp.127. Paperback.

THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF IRAN. Volume 3: THE SELEUCID, PARTHIAN AND SASANIAN PERIODS. Edited by Ehsan Yarshater. Vol. 3(1), pp. lxxv, 624, 48 pl., 4 line drawings, 13 maps; vol.3(2), pp.xix, thereafter pagination continuous with that of 3(1), ending at p.1488, 99 pl. (4 in colour), 25 line drawings, 3 maps. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. £37.50.

TA ‘LIKI‐ZADE'S ?EHNAME‐YI HÜMAYUN: A HISTORY OF THE OTTOMAN CAMPAIGN INTO HUNGARY 1593–94. Edited with introduction and notes by Christine Woodhead. (Islamkundliche Untersuchungen, Band 82.) vii, pp.421, map. Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 1983.

OTTOMAN YEAR BOOKS (SALNAME AND NEVSAL). Compiled by Hasan Duman. Istanbul, Research Centre for Islamic History, Art and Culture (IRCICA), 1402/1982. pp.144.

THE CRISIS OF TURKISH DEMOCRACY. By C.H.Dodd. Hull, Eothen Press, 1983. pp.136. £9.50 (cloth); £4.95 (paperback).

CULT, GHETTO AND STATE: THE PERSISTENCE OF THE JEWISH QUESTION. By Maxime Rodinson. London, Al Saqi Books, 1983. pp.239. £5.95.     

A. Reviews: general

i. The Arab Economy: Past Performance and Future Prospects. by Yusif A.Sayigh. Oxford University Press, 1982. pp. 175.

ii. The Arab Predicament: Arab Politics and Practice since 1967. By Fouad Ajami. Cambridge University Press, 1982. pp. 220. £4.95 (paperback of hardback edn., 1981).

iii. The Arabic Documents in the Archives of the British Political Agency Kuwait, 1904–1949 (IOR: R/15/5) ([ British Academy]Oriental Documents V). By Julia Ashtiany. London, India Office Library and Records (published under the auspices of the British Academy Oriental Documents Committee), 1982. pp.xxxi, 373, P1.4.

iv. Traditional Crafts of Saudi Arabia. By John Topham and others. London, Stacey International Publishers, 1982. pp.192, 275 illustrations (colour), 6 (black and white), 2 maps. £22.50.

v. Yemen: Political History, Social Structure and Legal System. By Isam Ghanem. London, Arthur Probsthain, pp.26. £4.00.

vi. Sidi Ameur: a Tunisian Village. By Nadia Abu Zahra. London, Ithaca Press, 1982. pp.238, 2 tables, 3 maps, 4 diagrams, 7 appendices. £11.50.

vii. Tchad/Lybie: La querelle des frontières. By Bernard Lanne. Paris, Editions Karthala, 1982. pp.251, 2 maps. FF 68.

viii. Women in Islam: Tradition and Transition in the Middle East. By Naila Minai. London, John Murray, 1981. pp.283. £8.95.

ix. Faith and Power: The Politics of Islam. By Edward Mortimer. London, Faber and Faber, 1982. pp.431. £10.50 (paperback £5.95).

xi. Pan‐Turkism in Turkey: A Study of Irredentism. By Jacob M.Landau. London, C.Hurst & Co., 1981. pp.219. £11.50.

xii. The Modernization of Turkey: From Atatürk to the Present Day. By Walter F. Weiker. New York & London, Holmes and Meier, 1981. pp.303.     

Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach

Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.     

Promoting Public Service Integrity: A Case for Responsible Accountability

We discuss below difference between the concepts of accountability and responsibility, in the context of government administration. We argue that New Zealand's public sector reforms, in particular, have depended on an essentially mechanistic as distinct from an organic interpretation of public organisations. A mechanistic approach focuses disproportionately on notions of organisational accountability at the expense of responsibility, and as a consequence may prove counterproductive over the longer term in maintaining high standards of ethical probity. A concept of responsible accountability needs to be developed further as a means of countering this possibility. We speculate on whether the emphasis on contractualism has enhanced or undermined an integrity-based as opposed to a compliance-based ethics regime, and the possible implications of this for the maintenance of ethical standards.