Does Financial Development Contribute to Poverty Reduction?

The article examines the contribution of financial development to poverty reduction in developing countries. Building on earlier research which has established links between financial development and economic growth, and between economic growth and poverty reduction, the article tests for a causal process linking financial sector growth and poverty reduction. The empirical results indicate that, up to a threshold level of economic development, financial sector growth contributes to poverty reduction through the growth-enhancing effect. The impact of financial development on poverty reduction will be affected, however, by any change in income inequality resulting from financial development.     

Privatisation in Developing Countries: A Review of the Evidence and the Policy Lessons

Privatisation is widely promoted as a means of improving economic performance in developing countries. However, the policy remains controversial and the relative roles of ownership and other structural changes, such as competition and regulation, in promoting economic performance remain uncertain. This article reviews the main empirical evidence on the impact of privatisation on economic performance in developing economies. The evidence suggests that if privatisation is to improve performance over the longer term, it needs to be complemented by policies that promote competition and effective state regulation, and that privatisation works best in developing countries when it is integrated into a broader process of structural reform.     

Do Term Limits Restrain State Fiscal Policy? Approaches for Causal Inference in Assessing the Effects of Legislative Institutions

Scholars of state politics are often interested in the causal effects of legislative institutions on policy outcomes. For example, during the 1990s a number of states adopted term limits for state legislators. Advocates of term limits argued that this institutional reform would alter state policy in a number of ways, including limiting state expenditures. We highlight a number of research design issues that complicate attempts to estimate the effect of institutions on state outcomes by addressing the question of term limits and spending. In particular, we focus on (1) treatment effect heterogeneity and (2) the suitability of nonterm‐limit states as good counterfactuals for term‐limit states. We compare two different identification strategies to deal with these issues: differences‐in‐differences (DID) estimation and conditioning on prior outcomes with an emphasis on synthetic case control. Using more rigorous methods of causal inference, we find little evidence that term limits affect state spending. Our analysis and results are informative for researchers seeking to assess the causal effects of state‐level institutions.     

A two-level model for evidence evaluation

A random effects model using two levels of hierarchical nesting has been applied to the calculation of a likelihood ratio as a solution to the problem of comparison between two sets of replicated multivariate continuous observations where it is unknown whether the sets of measurements shared a common origin. Replicate measurements from a population of such measurements allow the calculation of both within-group and between-group variances/covariances. The within-group distribution has been modelled assuming a Normal distribution, and the between-group distribution has been modelled using a kernel density estimation procedure. A graphical method of estimating the dependency structure among the variables has been used to reduce this highly multivariate problem to several problems of lower dimension. The approach was tested using a database comprising measurements of eight major elements from each of four fragments from each of 200 glass objects and found to perform well compared with previous approaches, achieving a 15.2% false-positive rate, and a 5.5% false-negative rate. The modelling was then applied to two examples of casework in which glass found at the scene of the criminal activity has been compared with that found in association with a suspect.     

Predicting the Postmortem Submersion Interval for Human Remains Recovered from U.K. Waterways*

Abstract: This article aims to increase accuracy in estimating the postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) for bodies recovered from rivers in the United Kingdom. Data were collected from closed case files, crime scene reports, and autopsy files concerning bodies recovered over a 15‐year period from the River Clyde, Scotland, and the River Mersey and canals in northwest England. One hundred and eighty‐seven cases met the study criteria and were scored by quantifying the overall amount of decomposition observed in each case. Statistical analysis showed that the duration of a body’s submergence in water and the temperatures to which it was exposed, as measured in accumulated degree days (ADD), had a significant effect on the decay process. Further analysis indicated that there were no significant differences in decomposition between the waterways. By combining the data from all study samples, it was possible to produce a single linear regression model for predicting ADD from observed decomposition.     

The Influence of Insects on Decomposition Rate in Buried and Surface Remains

Abstract: This article reports results of a comparative study of decomposition rates of wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) which were either (i) buried after exposure to insect activity, (ii) buried without exposure, (iii) kept above ground behind an insect screen, or (iv) continuously exposed above ground in a field experiment. Results showed that dipteran oviposition occurred consistently in groups i and iv only. Decomposition rates (measured by Total Body Score every c. 50 accumulated degree days [ADD]) of rabbits kept behind the screen and those buried without exposure showed no difference (p = 0.450). This was significantly slower than those buried after exposure (p = 0.0016) which was in turn significantly slower than those continuously exposed (p << 0.001). Temperatures collected from animals showed the presence of feeding larvae increased intra‐abdominal temperatures to >5°C above ambient. The findings support the assertion that insect presence is the primary agent affecting decomposition rate via tissue consumption and also the heat they generate.     

Deadlock in the Fight Against Terrorism

Terrorism has introduced non-state actors onto the global stage. Terrorist groups exploit international conflicts and continually evolve their structure and methods,so as to render the international community powerless to defend itself effectively. To protect themselves against terrorists some countries solely focus on defense,leaving terrorist groups free to expand. The international community needs to urgently address factors affecting the fight against terrorism including double standards.