Review essay

where he teaches business and public ethics. His most recent book, with William G. Scott, is Organizational Values in America,published by Transaction.     

Reviews

African Historiographies: What History for Which Africa?edited by BOGUMIL Jewsiewicki and David Newbury SAGE Publications, Beverly Hills (California) and London, 1986. 320 pp. including figures, notes and bibliography. £33,00.

Rural‐Urban Migration: Aspects of Theory, Policy and Practice by FrançAlcois Theron and Johann F. Graaff University Publishers, Stellenbosch and Grahamstown, 1987. 64 pp. including tables, notes and bibliography. R7,50 paperback.

German Imperialism in Africa: From the Beginnings until the Second World War edited by Helmuth Stoecker C. Hurst and Co., London, 1986. 446 pp. including bibliography and index. £17,50.

Elections in Independent Africa edited by Fred M. Hayward Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1987. xvii plus 318 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, bibliography and index. $36,50 paperback.

Africa and Israel: Relations in Perspective by Olusola Ojo Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1988. xiv plus 181 pp. including tables, notes and index. $23,50 paperback.

Rural Transformation in Tropical Africa edited by Douglas Rimmer Ohio University Press, Athens (Ohio), and Belhaven Press, London, 1988. viii plus 177 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. $27,95.

Ethiopia: Transition and Development in the Horn of Africa by Mulatu Wubneh and Yohannis Abate Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), and Avebury, London, 1988. xv plus 224 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, appendix, select bibliography and index. $28,00.

Ethiopia: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1974–1985 by David A. Korn Croom Helm, London and Sydney, 1986. xvii plus 199 pp. including map, notes, appendices, select bibliography and index. £19,95.

Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia by Christopher Clapham Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York and Sydney, 1988. xviii plus 284 pp. including map, tables, notes, bibliography and index. £30,00.

Politics and the Military in Uganda, 1890–1985 by Amii Omara‐Otunnu St. Martin's Press, New York, 1987. xx plus 218 pp. $35,00 paperback.

The Soviet Union, the Third World and Southern Africa by Jack Spence South African Institute of International Affairs, Johannesburg, 1988. vi plus 35 pp. including references. R10,00 paperback.

The Battlefronts of Southern Africa by Colin Legum Africana Publishing Co., New York and London, 1988. xxix plus 451 pp. including map, notes, appendices and indexes. $34,50 paperback.

The Politics of Development in Botswana: A Model for Success? By Louis A. Picard Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1987. xiv plus 298 pp. including tables, figures, notes, select bibliography and index. $26,50.

Capitalism and Apartheid: South Africa, 1910–1986 by Merle Lipton Wildwood House, London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1986. xi plus 473 pp. including map, tables, notes and index. $8,95 paperback.

Class, Community and Conflict: South African Perspectives edited by Belinda Bozzoli Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1987. xx plus 573 pp. including tables, illustrations, notes and index. R35,00 paperback.

Growing Up in a Divided Society: The Contexts of Childhood in South Africa edited by Sandra Burman and Pamela Reynolds Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1986. xvi plus 454 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, references and index. R28,00 paperback.

South Africa under Apartheid: A Select and Annotated Bibliography by Jacqueline A. Kalley Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, and Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, 1987. xiii plus 544 pp. including index. R39,00 paperback.     

B. Reviews

THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF ARABIC LITERATURE. Volume 1: Arabic Literature to the End of the Unayyad Period. Edited by A.F.L. Beeston, T.M.Johnstone, R.B.Serjeant and G.R.Smith, pp.xvi, 547. Cambridge University Press, 1983. £37.95.

AL‐MAQRIZI'S “BOOK OF CONTENTION AND STRIFE CONCERNING THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE BANU UMAYYA AND THE BANU HASHIM”. Translated into English, with an introduction and commentary by C.E.Bosworth. (Journal of Semitic Studies, Monograph No.3), Manchester, Department of Near Eastern Studies, University of Manchester, 1980. pp.157.

ARABIC CULTURE THROUGH ITS LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE. By M.H. Bakalla. London, Kegan Paul International, 1984. pp.371, 51, plates, maps.

ARABIC LINGUISTICS: AN INTRODUCTION AND BIBLIOGRAPHY. By M.H. Bakalla. London, Mansell, 1983. pp.742.

LA RELATION DE THOMAS PELLOW: UNE LECTURE DU MAROC AU 18^e SIÈCLE. By Magali Morsy. (Synthèse No.12), Paris, Editions Recherche sur les Civilisations, 1983. pp.254, 17pl. FF.129.

ESPANA Y EL NORTE DE AFRICA: EL PROTECTORADO DE MARRUECOS (1912–56). By Victor Morales Lezcano. Madrid, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, 1984. pp.249. Photos., maps, diagrams. 600.00 ptas.

EGYPT AND THE PALESTINE QUESTION 1936–1945. By Thomas Mayer. Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 1983. pp.391 (paperback).

SUDAN. By M.W.Daly. (World Bibliographical Series, Vol.40.) Oxford (UK) & Santa Barbara (USA), Clio Press, 1983. pp.xvi, 176, 1 map. £19.50.

THE OTHER FACE OF OPEC: FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE THIRD WORLD. ENERGY RESOURCES AND POLICIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA. By Ibrahim F.I. Shihata. London, Longman, 1982. pp.281 (paperback).

DEVELOPING EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN THE OIL STATES OF ARABIA: CONFLICTS OF PURPOSE AND FOCUS. By J.S.Birks and J.A.Rimmer. (Occasional Papers Series, No.21: Manpower and Migration Series, no.3). University of Durham, Centre for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 1984. pp.33. E2.50.

BIBLIOGRAPHICAL GUIDE TO IRAN: THE MIDDLE EAST LIBRARY COMMITTEE GUIDE. Edited by L.P.Elwell‐Sutton. Sussex, The Harvester Press/New Jersey, Barnes & Noble Books, 1984. pp.462.

ARABISCHE UND PERSISCHE PRIVATURKUNDEN DES 12. UND 13. JAHRHUNDERTS AUS ARDABIL (ASERBEIDSCHAN). By Monika Gronke. (Islamkundliche Untersuchungen, Bd 72), Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 182. pp.555.

MYSTICISM AND DISSENT: SOCIORELIGIOUS THOUGHT IN QAJAR IRAN. By Mangol Bayat. Syracuse, N.Y., Syracuse U.P., 1982. pp.xvii, 228. $25.00.

SOCIAL DISINTEGRATION AND POPULAR RESISTANCE IN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE 1881–1908: REACTIONS TO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC PENETRATION. By Donald Quataert. New York, Columbia U.P., 1983. pp.xxii, 205. $45.50.     

Estimation of the quantity of a drug in a consignment from measurements on a sample

A consignment of individual packages is thought to contain illegal material, such as drugs, in some or all of the packages. A sample from the consignment is inspected and the quantity of drugs in each package of the sample is measured. It is desired to estimate the total quantity of drugs in the consignment. Sampling variation is present in the original measurements and it is not sufficient just to adjust the sample mean pro rata. An analysis is described which takes account of the uncertainty concerning the proportion of the packages that contain drugs and provides a probabilistic summary of the quantity of drugs in the consignment. In particular, a probabilistic lower bound for the quantity of drugs in the consignment is given, which is dependent on the required standard of proof. This is in contrast to the approach based on confidence intervals which assumes that in the long run, the interval will contain the correct quantity the appropriate proportion of the time, but gives no measure of uncertainty associated with the particular consignment under consideration.     

Understanding Ripple Effects: The Cross–National Adoption of Policy Instruments for Bureaucratic Accountability

This article examines different explanations for the cross–national diffusion of three recent innovations in bureaucratic accountability—the institution of the ombudsman, freedom of information legislation and data protection (information privacy) law. The first two explanations are based on the assumption that these innovations are by–products of modernization, either the growth of the state or democratization. The third assumes that policy is shaped through processes of international communication. A combination of methodologies is employed to conclude that while the growth of government and liberal democratic values are necessary conditions for the adoption of all three policy instruments, they are not sufficient conditions. The pattern of adoption observed is best explained by examining how evidence about these respective policies flows from adopting states to non–adopters. In the case of the ombudsman, this process can be characterized as one of lesson–drawing; for freedom of information, evidence is used for legitimation purposes; for data protection, the diffusion is attributable to harmonization through international organizations. Policy transfer is hence a multi–faceted concept that embraces a number of distinct processes of transnational learning and communication.     

Exploring uniformity and variability in local electoral outcomes: Some evidence from English local elections 1985–1991

A detailed analysis of English local elections between 1985 and 1991 seems to support the propositions that a proportion of electors hold contradictory local and national voting preferences at one and the same time; and that there is significant variation in party performance both between and within local authorities. The paper concludes that the stimuli to which electors respond in local elections are often those most relevant to the ‘context’ in which their vote is cast. If partisan dealignment has led to a greater willingness on the part of the electorate to regard voting as a matter of ‘horses for courses’, there may not only be a further fragmentation in the results of elections of all kinds but the parties may experience different degrees of success depending on the nature of the contest.     

Decision analysis in forensic science

Forensic scientists are routinely faced with the problems of making decisions under circumstances of uncertainty (i.e., to perform or not perform a test). A decision making model in forensic science is proposed, illustrated with an example from the field of forensic genetics. The approach incorporates available evidence and associated uncertainties with the assessment of utilities (or desirability of the consequences). The paper examines a general example for which identification will be made of the decision maker, the possible actions, the uncertain states of nature, the possible source of evidence and the kind of utility assessments required. It is argued that a formal approach can help to clarify the decision process and give a coherent means of combining elements to reach a decision.