Decision analysis in forensic science

Forensic scientists are routinely faced with the problems of making decisions under circumstances of uncertainty (i.e., to perform or not perform a test). A decision making model in forensic science is proposed, illustrated with an example from the field of forensic genetics. The approach incorporates available evidence and associated uncertainties with the assessment of utilities (or desirability of the consequences). The paper examines a general example for which identification will be made of the decision maker, the possible actions, the uncertain states of nature, the possible source of evidence and the kind of utility assessments required. It is argued that a formal approach can help to clarify the decision process and give a coherent means of combining elements to reach a decision.     

与大部门共生的独立机构——以贸促机构为例

本文以西方发达国家(地区)贸易促进机构为具体案例,说明在西方行政管理体制改革的过程中,负责执行政府政策或法律、负责监管的独立机构所体现出来的公共治理结构中的多元化、社会化和市场化的趋势。这些独立机构和负责决策的大部门相互分工,相辅相成,共同构成政府公共管理和服务的主体。此外,本文提出在完善我国大部制的过程中,有必要不遗余力地推进独立机构的建设,并且通过对我国贸促机构的分析,提出可以以贸促机构作为我国建立独立机构的试点。