Complex Causal Relations and Case Study Methods: The Example of Path Dependence

Colin Elman Department of Political Science, Arizona State University, Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 85287-3902 e-mail: bennetta{at}georgetown.edu e-mail: colin.elman{at}asu.edu (corresponding author) This article discusses the application of qualitative methodsin analyzing causal complexity. In particular, the essay reviewshow process tracing and systematic case comparisons can addresspath-dependent explanations. The article unpacks the conceptof path dependence and its component elements of causal possibility,contingency, closure of alternatives, and constraints to thecurrent path. The article then reviews four strengths that casestudies bring to the study of path dependence: offering a detailedand holistic analysis of sequences in historical cases, beingsuitable for the study of rare events, facilitating the searchfor omitted variables that might lie behind contingent events,and allowing for the study of interaction effects within oneor a few cases.     

Canada's Assisted Human Reproductive Act: is it scientific censorship, or a reasoned approach to the regulation of rapidly emerging reproductive technologies?

After more than a decade of study, discussion and debate, the Canadian House of Commons and Senate have approved the Assisted Human Reproduction Act. Building on the earlier Bill C-47, which died on the order paper in 1997, the Act bans human cloning for reproductive or therapeutic purposes, payment for surrogacy arrangements, and trading in human reproductive materials or their use without informed consent. In addition, the Act significantly restricts research using human reproductive materials. This article compares the Act to legislative regimes in other nations with advanced human reproductive science. It concludes that while the Act has many laudable goals, it is flawed in that it tries to cover too much legislative ground. As a result it unreasonable impairs the ability of Canadian scientists to compete in areas such as stem cell research, and area that is expected to yield significant new approaches to treating human disease.     

How the probability of a false positive affects the value of DNA evidence

Errors in sample handling or test interpretation may cause false positives in forensic DNA testing. This article uses a Bayesian model to show how the potential for a false positive affects the evidentiary value of DNA evidence and the sufficiency of DNA evidence to meet traditional legal standards for conviction. The Bayesian analysis is contrasted with the "false positive fallacy," an intuitively appealing but erroneous alternative interpretation. The findings show the importance of having accurate information about both the random match probability and the false positive probability when evaluating DNA evidence. It is argued that ignoring or underestimating the potential for a false positive can lead to serious errors of interpretation, particularly when the suspect is identified through a "DNA dragnet" or database search, and that ignorance of the true rate of error creates an important element of uncertainty about the value of DNA evidence.     

A Comparative Study of Children and Adult Homicide Rates in the USA and the Major Western Countries 1974–1999: Grounds for Concern?

The aim of this study is to examine the changing patterns of child homicide in the USA and the other 9 major Western countries between 1974 and 1999. On the basis of standardized WHO mortality data, 5-year mean rates of Baby (<1 year), Infant (1–4), Child (5–14), and General Population Rates for Homicide (GPRH) were analyzed for 1974–78 and 1995–99 for the USA and major Western countries. The analysis provided ratios of change for children's homicide between 1974 and 1999 and ratio of ratios between adult' and children's homicide. Over the period USA male Baby homicide rose by 78% and Females 44% with a combined rise in All Children [0–14] homicides of 45%, within the context of a declining adult GPRH. In the 1970s, 3 major Western countries had either higher or similar children's homicide rates to the USA, but by the late 1990s none did. Moreover, between 1974 and 1999, the USA had the biggest rise in Baby (<1) and All Children's deaths, and only France had substantial increases, whereas Baby homicide rates fell significantly in 6 other countries. The findings indicate a worrying deterioration in U.S. child homicides. Possible links with child abuse and explanations for the results are briefly discussed. Urgent case-specific research is required to determine the cause/s for and how to reverse the worsening child homicide situation in the USA.     

High rates of suicide and attempted suicide using pesticides in Nickerie, Suriname, South America

Suicide and attempted suicide are identified as a serious mental health problem in Suriname, especially in the district of Nickerie. An epidemiological study in the Nickerie catchment area revealed high rates of suicide (48 per 100,000) and attempted suicide (207 per 100,000) on average in the years 2000-2004. Particularly remarkable is the high number of attempted suicides among males (49%), and the use of pesticides in both fatal (55%) and nonfatal suicidal behavior (44%). Probably this high incidence of suicidal behavior reflects the very poor economic situation of the district, poverty of most of the population, high levels of alcohol misuse, domestic violence, the rigidity of Hindustani culture regarding family traditions, the accessibility of pesticides, and the lack of future perspectives. Health care alone will not be sufficient to tackle this problem. One of the most urgent measures to prevent suicides is to stow away pesticides in locked cabinets with the key held by the proprietor.     

Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Marketing,truth and political expediency

• Countries have been built on the hopes, dreams and courage of refugees. In recent years, the global refugee problem has become more intense, and reactions from governments around the world have been generally negative. This paper explores and describes the way in which a hitherto unpopular Australian Government managed and communicated an apparent ‘refugee crisis’ to win an election campaign, using information known at the time to be untruthful. It compares the messages used to win the election with the truth that subsequently emerged, and relates this to political marketing, especially the theories of Machiavelli. It concludes by describing the situation post‐election and discusses some potential implications for public affairs.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agency Fever? Analysis of an International Policy Fashion

In the last 15 years, the governments of many OECD countries have transferred a wide range of functions to new, agency-type organizations. Allowing for the fact that, for comparative purposes, it is difficult precisely to define agencies, and further acknowledging that in many countries agencies are far from being new, it nevertheless remains the case that there seems to have been a strong fashion for this particular organizational solution.This article investigates the apparent international convergence towards agencification. It seeks to identify the reasons for, and depth of, the trend. It asks to what extent practice has followed rhetoric. The emerging picture is a complex one. On the one hand, there seems to be a widespread belief, derived from a variety of theoretical traditions, that agencification can unleash performance improvements. On the other hand, systematic evidence for some of the hypothetical benefits is very patchy. Furthermore, the diversity of actual practice in different countries has been so great that there must sometimes be considerable doubt as to whether the basic requirements for successful performance management are being met.