Measuring Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment

Estimates of the incidence of victim gun use from the National CrimeVictimization Survey (NCVS) are consistently lower than are those fromother studies. To examine the divergence, we conducted a survey that gaugedthe impact of methodological differences between the NCVS and the otherstudies. For half of the sample, we asked questions from the NCVS, followedby questions from the other surveys. For the other half of the sample, wepresented the questions in the reverse order. We examined two hypotheses:(1) survey methods account for the divergent results, and (2) the questionscover unrelated activities. The results provided some support for the firsthypothesis, but respondents also reported many more defenses to thequestions from the other surveys than to the NCVS questions. Consistent withthe second hypothesis, this suggests that the NCVS and the other surveysmeasure responses to largely different provocations.     

Juggling Inputs, Outputs, and Outcomes in the Search for Policy Competence: Recent Experience in Australia

During the mid- to late 1980s, the Labor government in Australia under Prime Minister Bob Hawke distinguished itself by achieving a balance in its budgeting and management approaches. This allowed for focusing on inputs, outputs, and outcomes in tandem. The approach differed considerably from that pursued in New Zealand. There, an overemphasis on outputs introduced serious distortions to the relations between ministers and officials, which reformers in Wellington have subsequently taken strides toward correcting.
As often happens with reform movements, the Australian process reached a plateau by the early to mid-1990s. Broadly, officials welcomed a change of government in 1996 with the expectation that the coalition under Prime Minister John Howard would give new impetus to innovative public management. Ironically, this coalition addressed the issues surrounding budgeting and management reform through an unreconstructed 1980s lens, highlighting outputs at the expense of balanced emphasis of inputs and outcomes as well. As suggested by the Labor government's success in the 1980s and the adjustments attempted by New Zealand governments in the 1990s, collective dynamics among and between members of cabinet and officials, respectively, are key to a balanced approach. These dynamics foster a sense of trusteeship whereby participants see that inputs, outputs, and outcomes form part of a seamless web centered on public interest. The analysis of the Coalition's performance so far suggests thhat its efforts at reform have proven retrogressive when evaluated by this standard.     

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.     

A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case

The measurement of bias in election results, whereby one or more parties are advantaged in the translation of votes into seats at the expense of others, is attracting increasing attention. So far, almost all of the analytical work – aimed at both identifying the extent of bias in an election result and establishing its causes – has focused on either two-party systems or on the largest two parties in multi-party systems. Building on the firm foundations of one such approach, this paper introduces an original procedure for analysing bias in three-party systems using a readily-appreciated metric for both evaluating the degree of bias and decomposing it into the various causal factors. This is illustrated using the example of the 2005 British general election and a comparison of the results from two-party and three-party analyses of six recent elections there.     

Social Science and the Public Interest

Social Science and the Public Interest

Social Science and the Public Interest July/August 2010     

A Disruptive Influence? “Prevent‐ing” Problems and Countering Violent Extremism Policy in Practice

This article describes how disrupting the activities of suspected violent extremists has become an increasingly significant construct in the policy and practice of the Prevent strand of UK Counter‐Terrorism. Informed by empirical data collected during semi‐structured interviews with police officers involved in conducting disruptions and members of the communities where these occurred, blended with a limited amount of field observation, the analysis documents how and why a logic of disruption has assumed increasing prominence in counter terrorism work. In respect of police interventions in particular, implementing disruptions, rather than pursuing fully‐fledged prosecutions, represents a pragmatic way of reconciling increasing demand with limited resources, as well as managing some of the difficulties of translating intelligence into legal evidence. Conceptualized in this way, the analysis positions disruption as a distinctive mode of crime prevention; one premised upon logics of near‐event interdiction. As such, it is understood as rather different in its operations and functions to other forms of “early intervention” that are increasingly prominent in much contemporary crime prevention policy. By focusing upon how specific Prevent interventions are implemented and performed this analysis makes a particular contribution to our knowledge of counter terrorism work. This reflects the fact that most previous studies of Prevent and other countering violent extremism programs have provided analyses of community perceptions and reactions to policing and the policy frame, rather than the configuration of the interventions themselves.     

Pathways to Sexual Risk Taking Among Female Adolescent Detainees

Sexual risk taking among female delinquents represents a significant public health problem. Research is needed to understand the pathways leading to sexual risk taking among this population. This study sought to address this issue by identifying and testing two pathways from child maltreatment to non-condom use among 329 White and 484 African American female adolescent detainees: a relational pathway and a substance use coping pathway. The relational pathway indicated that child maltreatment would be related to non-condom use via depressive self-concept and condom use self-efficacy. The substance use coping pathway suggested that depressive self-concept and alcohol-based expectancies for sexual enhancement would mediate the relationship between child maltreatment and non-condom use. As hypothesized, the relational pathway variables were associated with one another in the expected directions; however, evidence of mediation was not found. Support for mediation was found for the substance use coping pathway. Exploratory across group comparison analysis indicated that the relational pathway was significant for White girls whereas the substance use coping pathway was significant for African American girls. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.     

The dynamic character of disguise behavior for text-based, mixed, and stylized signatures

The aims of this study were to determine if dynamic parameters (duration, size, velocity, jerk, and pen pressure) differed for signing style (text-based, stylized, and mixed) and if signing style influences handwriting dynamics equally across three signature conditions (genuine, disguised, and auto-simulation). Ninety writers provided 10 genuine signatures, five disguised signatures, and five auto-simulated signatures. All 1800 signatures were collected using a digitizing tablet resulting in a database of each signature's dynamic characteristics. With genuine signatures, there were significant differences between styles for size, velocity, and pen pressure, and there were significant differences between genuine signatures and at least one of the un-natural signature conditions for all parameters. For velocity and size, these changes with condition were dependent on style. Changes with condition for the other parameters were similar for the three styles. This study shows that there are differences among natural signature styles and disguise behaviors that may be relevant in forensic signature examinations.