The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area toanother has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yetsystematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength,of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two timeperiods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984–1988) and aperiod of generally increasing homicide (1988–1993). The findingsreveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positivespatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution ofhomicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of onecounty containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearbycounties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Althoughtraditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatialdistribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluentareas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers againstthe diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealedthrough ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification ofmultivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.     

Affirmative action,duality of error,and the consequences of mispredicting the academic performance of african american college applicants

The implications of different potential affirmative action policies depend on three factors: selection rate from the applicant pool, base rate of qualified applicants, and accuracy of performance predictions. A series of analyses was conducted under various assumptions concerning affirmative action plans, causes of racial differences in average college admissions test scores, and racial differences in accuracy of performance predictions. Evidence suggesting a lower level of predictive accuracy for African Americans implies that, under a program of affirmative action, both proportionately more false positives (matriculated students who do not succeed) and proportionately more false negatives (rejected applicants who could have succeeded) will be found among African American applicants. Unless equivalent levels of predictive accuracy are achieved for both groups, no admission policy can be fair simultaneously to majority group applicants and African American applicants. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

More than Just a Line on the Map: The Political Culture of the Nova Scotia-New Brunswick Boundary

The boundary that separates the Canadian provinces of New Brunswickand Nova Scotia was established in 1784. This article contraststhe political orientations of those who live within a commonborder region, but on opposite sides of the New Brunswick andNova Scotia boundary, and concludes that the boundary line hasindependently had a divisive impact on the area's politicalculture. Unless this particular provincial boundary is atypical,therefore, the institution of federalism is, in some measure,inherently centrifugal.     

Interpersonal Environment Effects on Political Preferences: The “Middle Path” for Conceptualizing Social Structure in New Zealand and Japan

The effect of interpersonal environment, as measured by the degree of heterogeneity or homogeneity of political party preferences among important others in an individual's social network, was investigated using a national probability sample in Japan and regional sample in New Zealand. In both cultures, the interpersonal environment exerted significant and consistent effects on individual voting preferences. Those who reported inhabiting relatively homogeneous interpersonal political environments (IPEs) displayed a strong tendency to vote for the same political party as the important others in their social network. This effect was robust even after controlling for party identification, attitudes, media exposure, and objectively defined group memberships. Importantly, this tendency was not predicated on the frequency of talk about politics with significant others. Implications are discussed for both micro-level and macro-level theories of social structure and political behavior; an argument is made for the importance of a middle path—the psychology of enduring relationships between people.     

Criminal records and college admissions: A modified experimental audit

In this article, we consider the effect of criminal records on college admissions. Nearly 72 percent of colleges require criminal history information during their application processes, which indicates that an applicant's criminal history could be a significant impediment to achieving the benefits associated with higher education. We conducted a modified experimental audit to learn whether and to what extent criminal records affect admissions decisions. Matched same-race pairs of tester applications were sent to a national sample of nonelite 4-year colleges, with both testers applying as either Black or White. Within each pair, one application signaled a prior low-level felony conviction only when required by the application. Consistent with the findings of research on employment, we find the rejection rate for applicants with felony convictions was nearly 2.5 times the rate of our control testers. Relative to the large racial differences observed in previous studies of hiring decisions, we find smaller racial differences in admissions decisions. Nevertheless, Black applicants with criminal records were particularly penalized when disclosing a felony record at colleges with high campus crime rates. We address implications for reentry, racial progress, and the college “Ban the Box” movement. We suggest colleges consider narrowing the scope of such inquiries or removing the question altogether – particularly when it conflicts with the goals of these institutions, including reducing the underrepresentation of students of color.”     

An Era of Continuing Change: Reflections on Local Government in England 1974–2014

Abstract

This article sets the current position of local government in a longer historical perspective. It begins with a discussion of the 1974 local government reorganisation and argues that many of the principles and assumptions determining the ways of working of local authorities remained unchanged after this reorganisation. However, the next 40 years were ones of continuing change, much of it imposed by central government, and the article discusses the often piecemeal implementation of individual changes and the resulting atmosphere of uncertainty and instability. This is followed by an analysis of the cumulative impact of the changes and identifying key problems, and the article concludes by drawing on this analysis to set out the challenges that have to be met if the full potential of the local government is to be realised in the future.     

Aspirations,Expectations and Delinquency: The Moderating Effect of Impulse Control

Although prior research finds a robust link between delinquent behavior and expectations, or an adolescent’s perceived likelihood of obtaining one’s future goals, fewer studies have evaluated aspirations, or the perceived importance of achieving one’s goals. In addition, few studies consider how individual traits such as impulsivity affect the degree to which expectations and aspirations motivate or deter delinquent behavior. We contribute to this body of research by evaluating the independent effects of expectations and aspirations, and the aspiration-expectation gap (i.e., strain) on delinquent behavior during the year following an adolescent’s first arrest using a large (N?=?1117), racially/ethnically diverse sample of male adolescents (46.55% Latino, 35.81% Black, 14.95% White, and 2.69% Other race). In addition, we considered how impulse control interacts with expectations, aspirations, and strain to motivate behavior. Our results indicated that both aspirations, expectations and strain uniquely influence criminal behavior. Importantly, aspirations interacted with impulse control, such that aspirations affected delinquency only among youth with higher impulse control. Our findings suggest that aspirations may only influence behavior if youth also have the psychosocial capabilities to consider their future aspirations when behaving in the present.     

A Peek into a Future Filled with Climate Change Regulation

The recent federal presidential election and Democratic majority in Congress assure that federal legislation to address climate change will be enacted. The nature and extent of future federal climate change regulation cannot be predicted. But, climate change regulation will be in our future. In the absence of federal regulation, regional associations and states have taken action on their own to reduce carbon emissions and address climate change. The Western Climate Initiative (WCI) is a regional association that is developing a detailed climate change program. New Jersey is one of the states which has passed, and is now implementing, legislation to address climate change. By evaluating the WCI and New Jersey activities regarding climate change, one can develop an understanding of the major issues, some possible options for dealing with those issues, and the impact climate change regulation will have on the economy, energy issues, and everyday living.     

"The More Things Change…": Business Litigation and Governance in the American Automobile Industry

Business litigation is a relatively neglected area of corporate governance, particularly given its enormous rise in the United States over the past generation. As a preliminary effort to engage this issue, we examine dispute avoidance and resolution in the automotive sector since the early 1970s-focusing on relationships between auto manufacturers and their suppliers and dealers. We generally presume intercorporate litigation to be a "last resort" in business practice, chosen only on the breakdown of less costly means of dispute avoidance or resolution; we take such breakdown typically to be caused by shifts in the terms of competition among firms (e. g., increased competition, instability, uncertainty); and we expect that, over time, the costs of litigation will motivate efforts to construct new structures of nonlitigious dispute resolution. In the case of the U. S. auto industry, we find disruptive shifts in the terms of competition and increased recourse to litigation. Throughout, however, this litigation effect is mitigated by the dominance of major manufacturers over their suppliers and dealers. Over time, it is further dampened by industry development of mechanisms for arbitration or other nonlitigious dispute resolution.