Short-term forces and partisan change in Canada: 1974–1980

The theoretical attractiveness of party identification derives in large measure from its presumed stability at the level of the individual voter. Recent studies conducted in Great Britain and the United States suggest, however, that partisan attachments are less stable than originally believed, and respond to the impact of shortterm forces. This paper uses newly available, national panel surveys to consider the Canadian case. Between 1974 and 1980 party identification in this country is characterized by aggregate stability and individual change. The latter is not confined to particular groups of voters and is not strongly associated with time-related reinforcement effects, but rather reflects variations in party leader and party/issue preferences. Further, interaction effects suggest that extent of political interest and patterns of partisanship across levels of the federal system condition processes of partisan change.     

Systems theory and policy practice: An exploration

Systems approaches in policy analysis have had a chequered history. Expectations that hard (quantitative) systems analysis would lead to better answers to policy problems have largely been disappointed. Yet systems theory has itself moved on, to embrace the concept of autopoiesis and a variety of soft systems methodologies. Collectively, these theories offer a way of analysing policy quite distinct from the institutionalist approaches which tend to dominate the theory and practice of policy-making. Rather than selecting instruments to fit a particular kind of policy problem (the conventional approach to policy design) systems analysis suggests that the nature of the problem cannot be understood separately from its solution. For policy problems characterised by complexity (such as those concerned with environmental management and regulation, and urban re-development) using systems concepts offers a way of rationalising aspects of existing practice and of suggesting directions for improvement.     

Forensic voice comparison and the paradigm shift

We are in the midst of a paradigm shift in the forensic comparison sciences. The new paradigm can be characterised as quantitative data-based implementation of the likelihood-ratio framework with quantitative evaluation of the reliability of results. The new paradigm was widely adopted for DNA profile comparison in the 1990s, and is gradually spreading to other branches of forensic science, including forensic voice comparison. The present paper first describes the new paradigm, then describes the history of its adoption for forensic voice comparison over approximately the last decade. The paradigm shift is incomplete and those working in the new paradigm still represent a minority within the forensic–voice-comparison community.     

Causal inference and American political development: the case of the gag rule

Public Choice - We extend previous work on the role of politically motivated donors who contribute to candidates in an election with single dimension policy preferences. In a two-stage game wherein...     

Couplets

“Couplets” moves back and forth, swapping thought images, turns of phrase and story lines conjured up to get inside the machine and spread of a thing. Curiosity is a thought muscle throwing weight against fake foundations. The airs of a day make rhythm promises and labor demands. Paying attention is a starting point but no guarantee when there’s no floor. Things are happening.     

A Second Scottish Independence Referendum: Should the Diaspora get a Vote?

The 2014 Scottish independence referendum settled little in terms of Scotland's constitutional future. The after-effects of what was the largest exercise in democracy in Scottish history certainly increased Scotland's devolved authority but, following withdrawal from the EU and with continuing differences and disagreements between the Westminster and Scottish governments, there have been increasing demands for a second referendum. One aspect of these conversations has been about the voting rights of Scots living outside Scotland, whose relationship with the nation would certainly be impacted by any successful vote for Scottish independence. And yet, they have had no voice in that decision and despite calls for their inclusion in any future vote, such inclusion remains unlikely. This article examines the reasons why such inclusion would be challenging and then considers what the Scottish diaspora think about Scottish independence and voting rights, by considering qualitative responses to a survey of members of the Scottish diaspora.     

Criminality among female drug users following an HIV risk-reduction intervention

The main objectives of this article are to determine the prevalence of criminality among a sample of female African American drug users and to examine change in criminality over time, including the correlates associated with this change. Data were collected from 336 adult women who participated in an HIV risk-reduction intervention focused on the context of the women's daily life. Face-to-face structured interviews were conducted at baseline, prior to enrolling in the intervention, and at follow-up, 6 months after completion of the intervention. Bivariate and correlated multivariate methods were utilized to examine changes in criminality and other behaviors over time. Both violent and nonviolent criminality declined significantly between baseline and follow-up assessments. Of the correlates considered, drug-using characteristics and victimization played the greatest role in explaining the decrease in criminality. Low self-control and depressive symptoms also contributed to the reduction in criminality. The findings suggest the importance of considering individual characteristics that may influence the women's criminal behavior as well as the impact of their routine activities.     

Skin penetration surrogate for the evaluation of less lethal kinetic energy munitions

Although the benefits of the use of less lethal kinetic energy munitions are numerous, there is a need to evaluate the munitions prior to deployment to ensure their intended effect. The objective of the current research was to validate a surrogate that could be used to predict the risk of penetration of these devices. Existing data from biomechanical testing with post-mortem human specimens (PMHS) served as the foundation for this research. Development of the surrogate involved simulating the various layers of the skin and underlying soft tissues using a combination of materials. A standardized 12-gauge impactor was used to assess each combination. The energy density that resulted in a 50% risk of penetration for the anterior thorax region (23.99 J/cm(2)) from the previous research was matched using a specific combination of layers. Twelve various combinations of materials were tested with the 50% risk of penetration determined. The final validated surrogate consisted of a Laceration Assessment Layer (LAL) of natural chamois and .6 cm of closed-cell foam over a Penetration Assessment Layer (PAL) of 20% ordnance gelatin. This surrogate predicted a 50% risk of penetration at 23.88 J/cm(2). Injury risk curves for the PMHS and surrogate development work are presented.     

Investigating the Determinants of the Street Code and its Relation to Offending among Adults

Theoretical and empirical consideration has long been given to the role of subcultural attitudes and how they relate to delinquency and crime. Recently, Anderson has reconceptualized these early attitudinal depictions by considering the formation and role of these specific attitudes or ‘code of the street’ among African-Americans in inner-city neighborhoods. A number of important findings have emerged from this literature, yet much remains to be considered. We contribute to this literature in three specific ways by examining: (1) the scope of street code attitudes across a wide variety of individuals—and not just inner-city African American (males) to assess the generalizability of these attitudes; (2) the correlates of street code attitudes; and (3) the extent to which street code attitudes mediate the relationship between various demographic and attitudinal (self-control) variables and crime. Theoretical implications and directions for future research are addressed.