A strategic view of South African trade policy in relation to the future global trading environment

This paper puts forward a strategic view of what South African trade policy should be doing in relation to the future global trading environment. The future is uncertain, but if the past is prologue, South African trade policy needs to be positioned for a continuation of the commodity cycle, and to exploit markets in emerging economies, including Africa, more fully. Simultaneously, it needs policies to spur labour-intensive services and manufacturing exports, both because these will be needed if commodity markets are less robust and because of their employment-creating potential. South Africa's current strategy, however, is inflexible, heavily focused on domestic concerns and is in danger of placing South African exporters at a disadvantage in accessing the growing emerging economies. It also gives rise to an inherent tension between the interests of South Africa and the African region in trade negotiations. Having as the central tenet of trade policy a commitment to deal with tariffs on a case-by-case basis will not serve South Africa well in the global economy that is likely to emerge over the next 15 years. A simpler tariff structure would facilitate the conclusion of free trade agreements and actually make industrial policy more effective.     

Botswana

Botswana is known to be Africa's oldest stable democracy. But its parliamentary system is still dominated by the executive and the political opposition remains weak.     

Ruling by Favors: Prison Guards' Informal Exercise of Institutional Control

This ethnographic research addresses the control strategies employed by Norwegian guards in everyday interactions with inmates under institutional conditions in which the use of official negative sanctions is restricted. The article explains how a complicated informal system of favors develops that forms a new basis for punishment through the withdrawal of rewards. By distributing favors liberally, giving an inmate only what he is entitled to serves as a substitute for negative sanctions. Inmates are not opposing the informal system, and its effect on ensuring institutional control does not challenge the intentions of formal prison rules. Still, the informal system must be monitored and protected against overuse by inmates and must also be kept hidden from the officials making up the prison administration who oppose all departures from the official rules.     

A national population based examination of the association between age-versatility trajectories and recidivism rates

Purpose

To compare theoretical explanations of the age-versatility curve including the hypotheses of: self-control theory stating that versatility is followed by specialization; taxonomic theory stating that adolescent-limited offenders are specialists and life-course offenders are versatile and orthogenetic theory stating that specialization and versatility are present in a large number of offender groups.

Methods

These explanations were tested with Israeli national population-based data on all first and subsequent juvenile offenders (n = 17,176) with 248,114 registered police contacts from 1996 to 2008.

Results

Semi-parametric group-based modeling identified two trajectory-groups that characterized the age-versatility curve of police contacts before first conviction. The trajectory-groups were labeled as versatility (n = 2,447; 14.2%), and specialization (n = 14,729; 85.8%). After controlling for 19 documented demographic, familial, and criminogenic risk factors, Cox regression showed that juvenile offenders in the versatility group were at increased risk of recidivism compared to offenders in the specialization group.

Conclusions

These results partially adhere with taxonomic theory than the remaining theories and indicate that assuming a trajectory of elevated pre-conviction versatility increases the risk of recidivism.     

R. v. Hakopian

The writer would like to thank Jenny Morgan for her assistance, and the Lionel Murphy Foundation for its financial support.     

Blood grouping in mixed blood stains and excretions

Blood grouping in mixed blood stains and excretions can often be a problem. It is related with the fact that, when blood and excretions of persons having different groups get mixed, the determinants of blood antigens of one person interact with the active centers of excretions' antibodies of another one and vice versa. The authors suggest a method to do away with the phenomenon.