国内进程、不对称互动与体系变化——中国、东盟与东亚合作

本文从中国—东盟关系以及东亚体系文化的转变这一问题出发,试图建立一个地区体系文化转型的理论模型。本文提出,推动地区文化转型的过程有两个:一是地区大国的国内进程,尤其是国内观念和规范层面的变化;二是地区大国与地区其他国家的互动,包括互动内容和互动方式。本文假设,国内政治、经济和社会进程的变化导致地区大国在对外交往中与他者的互动方式和互主身份发生变化,其中最为重要的是地区大国与地区制度主导行为体的关系变化,如果大国在上升过程中能够与该行为体进行不对称互动,让其主导互动过程,并使互动的物质和规范收益向其倾斜,就能与之实现相互认同,并进而在此过程中被地区制度社会化,从而推动建设和平与合作的地区体系文化。本文以中国、东盟与东亚合作为案例对假设进行了验证。     

Extending an Olive Branch

Why the Obama administration is trying to repair relations with the Muslim world After finishing his busy schedule at the G20 summit, the NATO summit, and the summit between the lEuropean Union and the United States, U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in Ankara on April 5 for a two-day visit to     

市场主导:法制宣传教育的路径选择

法制宣传教育即将完成第六个五年规划的实施,其未来发展的路径选择应该摆上国家决策的议事日程。从政治、经济、技术和人文等四个方面的因素,客观地追溯法制宣传教育产生的历史背景,并从国家发展的宏观视野切入分析法制宣传教育的现实状况,可以看出,"市场主导"是法制宣传教育未来发展之最佳路径选择。     

气候正义的僵局与出路——基于法哲学与经济学的跨学科考察

气候正义涉及复杂的国际法与国内法问题。传统国际法强调主权独立和互不干涉,而应对气候变化必然要求国际社会合作减排。国际合作减排的前提是各国主动放弃部分排放权利,主动承担减排义务。气候变化对整个国际社会造成了极大的危害,由于各国所处地理位置不同,各国所受的负面冲击不尽一致。有些国家必须支出巨额的调整成本以适应变化了的全球气候,而有些国家反而会因气候变化获得短期利益。根据科斯定律初始权利分配原理,气候正义不是简单的排放权的界定与转让问题,它要求运用分配正义与矫正正义原则对不公平分担减排责任的现象进行平衡处理。中国固然应当积极参与国际合作减排,但同时要坚持发展权优先的观点,与工业发达国家展开有理有节的谈判与斗争,争取最大限度地实现矫正正义。     

美韩同盟再定义与韩国的战略选择:进程与争论

本文系统总结了自2002年底以来美韩同盟再定义的磋商过程,以及双方在驻韩美军基地调整、同盟内部军事安全角色分工、同盟的未来战略构想等三大焦点问题上所取得的实质性进展,认为通过区域扩展和内涵扩展的路径选择,美韩同盟再定义已基本实现利益平衡与威胁平衡的双重目标。通过对美韩全球性战略同盟关系的定位与确认,韩国也由此结束了数年来激烈的外交方向辩论,再度确立了中近期亲美的结盟外交路线,然而有关韩国对外战略的争论不会就此终结。     

突发公共安全事件扩散动力学模型仿真研究

由于自然—社会—经济系统互动随社会发展不断增加,突发公共安全事件更多地呈现出扩散化的形式,产生的影响远大于单一事件的发生。本文以复杂系统理论和复杂网络理论为基础并借鉴灾害链的相关研究,分别针对单一突发公共安全事件、突发公共安全事件链式扩散和突发公共安全事件网络扩散的特征、共性进行探索,建立事件发生和扩散的复杂系统动力学模型,通过突发公共安全事件扩散网络的动力学模型进行仿真实验,进一步探索不同网络结构和影响因素下的突发事件扩散机理。在复杂网络中,不同网络结构、事件爆发阈值、事件间关联度都会对突发事件的扩散产生影响。     

《刑事诉讼法修正案（草案）》的功能性分析

诉讼功能认识的偏差影响人们对诉讼的运用及诉讼理论、诉讼制度的建构。我国《刑事诉讼法》修改一方面不应削弱惩罚犯罪的功能,另一方面也应进一步强化人权保障的功能。本文试图在对《中华人民共和国刑诉法修正案（草案）》作功能性分析的基础上,围绕我国《刑事诉讼法》修改中的几个争议问题,提出以强化与完善相关制度与程序予以解决的方法和建议。     

Beyond the Visible Pattern: Historical Particularities,Development, and Age at First Marriage in Transylvania, 1850–1914

The present study focused on age at first marriage in Transylvania between 1850 and 1914, a time of both social-economic change and resilient historically entrenched particularities. Based on data extracted from the Historical Population Database of Transylvania we constructed an extensive sample from settlements with a broad range of social-economic characteristics, which allowed for a comparative view into the influence of various factors on marriage timing. We examined in this sense both individual-level co-variates, such as denominational affiliation, migration background, and social-occupational status, as well as broader factors, such as the development level attained by certain settlements and the time frame. We found that the area level of development measured according to a heuristic index was in many cases more decisive than individual characteristics in shaping individuals’ constraints and opportunities on the marriage market. More significantly, the analysis showed that the ways in which the development level worked to transform marriage timing for both men and women could be explained by historically entrenched differences and specificities. At the same time, these patterns in age at first marriage, given by factors such as denomination, might be the result of other largely still invisible factors, for which the variables used are merely imperfect proxies.     

A cross-sectional study on expression of anger and factors associated with criminal recidivism in prisoners with prior offences

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to determine demographical characteristics leading to crime recidivism and define anger levels and anger expression manners for those who re-commit crime. METHOD: All the literate inmates in Izmit Closed Penitentiary were included in this cross-sectional study. The prisoners were asked to respond to State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory. Their socio-demographic data were collected and a questionnaire was given to them to determine their state of imprisonment, sentence, nature of the crime in which they were involved, their criminal history, their relationship with inmates and prison staff and substance and alcohol use. RESULTS: Of the 438 prisoners, 302 (68.9%) responded to the questionnaires. Crime recidivism among the study cohort was observed to be 37.4%. Mean trait anger, anger out and anger in scores were significantly higher in prisoners with criminal recidivism in comparison with those who did not have prior criminal records. However, mean anger control scores for prisoners with or without criminal recidivism were similar. Unemployment, education level completed at secondary school or below, having committed a crime under the influence of alcohol or narcotics, having been involved in prison fights, having resisted police officers, caused damage in their vicinity when angry and violent crimes were all found to be possible causes of criminal recidivism. Educational level completed at secondary school or below, getting into fights with other prisoners, unemployment and resisting police officers were determined to be the strongest indicators to predict criminal recidivism when all variables were considered according to a logistic regression model. CONCLUSION: It can be proposed that those who have problems with officials or hostile towards others constitute a risk group for criminal recidivism. If prisoners with criminal recidivism can be helped to identify and control their anger, their risk of committing a new crime can be minimised.     

The political economy behind the gradual demise of democratic institutions in Serbia

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to accomplish two goals. First, to present recent empirical evidence supporting the claim that Serbia is on the path towards embracing a more radical version of electoral authoritarianism. This is accomplished by examining most recent illiberal politics aimed at controlling electoral processes and the media sphere, and extracting public funds for partisan purposes. I claim that the incomplete design of democratic institutions in Serbia set up between 2001 and 2012 is primarily responsible for the democratic decline. The second goal is more general and aims to emphasize the importance of extracting public funds for hybrid regimes. Extractive institutions matter because they directly impact other critical segments of electoral authoritarianism (notably, elections and media freedom), but also because they explain the type of leadership they promote in politics. If public resources remain without proper institutional oversight and are simply ‘up for grabs,’ this will attract leaders more willing to dismantle democratic institutions and violate democratic procedures. Serbia serves as a good and current example of this linkage.