A model for estimating the number of glass fragments transferred when breaking a pane: experiments with firearms and hammer.

Numerous publications have shown the importance of transfer in the interpretation of glass evidence. As this phenomenon is also highly variable, it was decided to test the hypothesis that there exists a means to predict the number of fragments recovered at time t = 0. Panes of float glass-of different types and thickness-were broken using either a firearm or a hammer. It was decided to choose a firearm as the main breaking device, as it allowed not only to have more reproducible conditions but also to acquire knowledge in a field where little has been published. Despite the inherent variation in the breaking process, the results show that using a statistical model it is possible to predict the number of fragments transferred onto a garment from the number of fragments transferred to the ground. This research also indicates the size and number of particles transferred onto a person, when breaking window panes of different types (float, laminated or toughened) with different breaking procedures.     

The sensitivity of the Bayesian HPD method to the choice of prior.

Statistical sampling error is present in every statistical calculations using DNA because all such statistics rely on a sample (database) of individuals, which is used to estimate the population frequencies of alleles. Curran et al.gave a method for estimating the sampling error of the statistics based on the region of the highest density of the Bayesian posterior (HPD). The Bayesian HPD method relies on the assumption of a prior distribution for the population allele frequencies as well as Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper we answer three pivotal questions. Firstly we address the question of how many Monte Carlo iterations are required to get sufficient accuracy in our estimates of sampling error. Secondly, we address the question of the appropriate choice of the prior distribution for the population allele frequencies. Thirdly, we demonstrate the flexibility of the Bayesian HPD over other methods.     

Access to justice: a new approach using human rights standards

This article details a trial of a new approach to measuring access to justice that utilises human rights instruments as the reference point. It involves an examination of people's actual experience of the justice system using human rights standards as the benchmark. The research project selected the right to income security. The project trialled a range of methods gathering data about how people have been treated in the Australian social security system and how they would expect to be treated if there was a human right to social security in Australia. This data is assessed against the set of standards developed to measure the enjoyment of the right to social security. The trial suggests that without knowledge about human rights and legal rights, without the confidence to exercise those rights and without the capacity or capability to seek or find help it is unlikely that people will realise their rights and accordingly access to justice is placed in question. The research methodology has the potential to be a useful model to conduct further access to justice research.     

Modeling Forensic DNA Database Performance*

Abstract: Over the past decade or more, DNA databases have been a focal point of development for the forensic field. Using this approach, forensic and law enforcement agencies have aided millions of investigations, many of which would remain unsolved but for the intelligence links provided from DNA database comparison. However, despite their widespread use and increasingly broad legislative and operational reach, there has been limited overarching performance modeling or reflection on drivers of operational or financial efficiency. This study derives an inferential model for DNA database performance using data from major national DNA database programs. Parameters that optimize desirable database outputs (matches) are isolated and discussed, as is an approach for maximizing financial efficiency and minimizing ethical impact. This research takes important steps toward identifying measures of performance for forensic DNA database operations.     

The interpretation of elemental composition measurements from forensic glass evidence III

In this paper we introduce a permutation testing approach to the interpretation of evidence which consists of elemental composition measurements, with glass evidence as an example. This work extends previous work of Curran et al. [J.M. Curran, C.M. Triggs, J.R. Almirall, J.S. Buckleton and K.A.J. Walsh, The interpretation of elemental composition measurements from forensic glass evidence, Science and Justice 37 (1997) 241–244.] and shows how we may remove some of the constraints that limited the applicability of the previous results. We provide the reader with tools for evidence pre-screening that may aid in the direction of further analyses of the data, rather than for the presentation of evidence interpretation in a court case.     

The effect of annealing on the variation of glass refractive index

The variation of refractive index (RI) over a non-toughened, float pane of glass and a toughened, float pane of glass was investigated. The two panes of colourless, float glass were cut into 150 5 cm × 5 cm squares. The pre- and post-annealing RI values from three random areas from each square were measured. Bayesian statistical hierarchical modelling of the results showed that for the non-toughened, float glass pane annealing increased the variability in RI by a factor of 1.29-1.58, with a mean of 1.43 (with 95% probability); and for the toughened, float pane of glass annealing decreased the variability in RI by a factor of 0.63-0.76, with a mean of 0.69 (with 95% probability). In addition it was found that although there were no systematic differences in ΔRI across either pane of glass, there were observable differences across both panes of glass. These results provide information regarding the expected RI variation over entire panes of both non-toughened and toughened float window glass for both pre- and post-annealing RI measurements.     

The appropriate use of subpopulation corrections for differences in endogamous communities

The bioluminescence response of two genetically modified (lux-marked) bacteria to potentially toxic compounds (PTCs) in stomach contents was monitored using an in vitro assay. Cells of Escherichia coli HB101 and Salmonella typhimurium both carrying the lux light producing gene on a plasmid (pUDC607) were added to stomach contents containing various concentrations of organic and inorganic compounds. There was some variability in the response of the two biosensors, but both were sensitive to the herbicides glyphosate, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5-T); pentachlorophenol (PCP), and inorganic poisons arsenic and mercury at a concentration range likely to be found in stomach contents samples submitted for toxicological analysis. This study demonstrates that biosensor bioassays could be a useful preliminary screening tool in forensic toxicology and that such a toxicological screening should include more than one test organism to maximise the number of PTC's detected. The probability of false positive results from samples containing compounds that may interfere with the assay such as over-the-counter (OTC) drugs and caffeine in tea and coffee was also investigated. Of the substances tested only coffee has the potential to cause false positive results.     

Consideration of the probative value of single donor 15-plex STR profiles in UK populations and its presentation in UK courts

The adoption of new 15 locus STR multiplex systems into UK forensic science would be facilitated by agreed guidelines for reporting the strength of DNA evidence using likelihood ratios. To facilitate such an agreement, we present an analysis of previously published UK allele frequencies for white Caucasian, Afro-Caribbean and Indo-Pakistani populations and investigate their effect on likelihood ratios for single donor profiles. We consider the implication of the five additional loci and suggest a procedure for reporting likelihood ratios for 15-plex STR profiles.