An expert-generated tool for assessing policy capacity

“Policy capacity” describes the ability of policy-making systems to do quality work. Better-quality policy work leads to more successful policies. There have been limited attempts to operationalize theoretical understanding of policy capacity, resulting in a lack of shared understanding and assessment metrics. In this Delphi study, health policy experts validated an existing multidimensional conceptual framework for policy capacity. Factors that contribute to policy success were identified and rated to represent aspects of policy capacity, and arranged within the conceptual framework, as were factor indicators. The resulting tool provides expert-generated items for transparently and systematically assessing policy capacity.     

A model for estimating the number of glass fragments transferred when breaking a pane: experiments with firearms and hammer.

Numerous publications have shown the importance of transfer in the interpretation of glass evidence. As this phenomenon is also highly variable, it was decided to test the hypothesis that there exists a means to predict the number of fragments recovered at time t = 0. Panes of float glass-of different types and thickness-were broken using either a firearm or a hammer. It was decided to choose a firearm as the main breaking device, as it allowed not only to have more reproducible conditions but also to acquire knowledge in a field where little has been published. Despite the inherent variation in the breaking process, the results show that using a statistical model it is possible to predict the number of fragments transferred onto a garment from the number of fragments transferred to the ground. This research also indicates the size and number of particles transferred onto a person, when breaking window panes of different types (float, laminated or toughened) with different breaking procedures.     

The sensitivity of the Bayesian HPD method to the choice of prior.

Statistical sampling error is present in every statistical calculations using DNA because all such statistics rely on a sample (database) of individuals, which is used to estimate the population frequencies of alleles. Curran et al.gave a method for estimating the sampling error of the statistics based on the region of the highest density of the Bayesian posterior (HPD). The Bayesian HPD method relies on the assumption of a prior distribution for the population allele frequencies as well as Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper we answer three pivotal questions. Firstly we address the question of how many Monte Carlo iterations are required to get sufficient accuracy in our estimates of sampling error. Secondly, we address the question of the appropriate choice of the prior distribution for the population allele frequencies. Thirdly, we demonstrate the flexibility of the Bayesian HPD over other methods.     

Access to justice: a new approach using human rights standards

This article details a trial of a new approach to measuring access to justice that utilises human rights instruments as the reference point. It involves an examination of people's actual experience of the justice system using human rights standards as the benchmark. The research project selected the right to income security. The project trialled a range of methods gathering data about how people have been treated in the Australian social security system and how they would expect to be treated if there was a human right to social security in Australia. This data is assessed against the set of standards developed to measure the enjoyment of the right to social security. The trial suggests that without knowledge about human rights and legal rights, without the confidence to exercise those rights and without the capacity or capability to seek or find help it is unlikely that people will realise their rights and accordingly access to justice is placed in question. The research methodology has the potential to be a useful model to conduct further access to justice research.     

Modeling Forensic DNA Database Performance*

Abstract: Over the past decade or more, DNA databases have been a focal point of development for the forensic field. Using this approach, forensic and law enforcement agencies have aided millions of investigations, many of which would remain unsolved but for the intelligence links provided from DNA database comparison. However, despite their widespread use and increasingly broad legislative and operational reach, there has been limited overarching performance modeling or reflection on drivers of operational or financial efficiency. This study derives an inferential model for DNA database performance using data from major national DNA database programs. Parameters that optimize desirable database outputs (matches) are isolated and discussed, as is an approach for maximizing financial efficiency and minimizing ethical impact. This research takes important steps toward identifying measures of performance for forensic DNA database operations.     

The interpretation of elemental composition measurements from forensic glass evidence III

In this paper we introduce a permutation testing approach to the interpretation of evidence which consists of elemental composition measurements, with glass evidence as an example. This work extends previous work of Curran et al. [J.M. Curran, C.M. Triggs, J.R. Almirall, J.S. Buckleton and K.A.J. Walsh, The interpretation of elemental composition measurements from forensic glass evidence, Science and Justice 37 (1997) 241–244.] and shows how we may remove some of the constraints that limited the applicability of the previous results. We provide the reader with tools for evidence pre-screening that may aid in the direction of further analyses of the data, rather than for the presentation of evidence interpretation in a court case.     

The effect of annealing on the variation of glass refractive index

The variation of refractive index (RI) over a non-toughened, float pane of glass and a toughened, float pane of glass was investigated. The two panes of colourless, float glass were cut into 150 5 cm × 5 cm squares. The pre- and post-annealing RI values from three random areas from each square were measured. Bayesian statistical hierarchical modelling of the results showed that for the non-toughened, float glass pane annealing increased the variability in RI by a factor of 1.29-1.58, with a mean of 1.43 (with 95% probability); and for the toughened, float pane of glass annealing decreased the variability in RI by a factor of 0.63-0.76, with a mean of 0.69 (with 95% probability). In addition it was found that although there were no systematic differences in ΔRI across either pane of glass, there were observable differences across both panes of glass. These results provide information regarding the expected RI variation over entire panes of both non-toughened and toughened float window glass for both pre- and post-annealing RI measurements.     

Assessing uncertainty in DNA evidence caused by sampling effects.

Sampling error estimation in forensic DNA testimony was discussed. Is an estimate necessary and how should it be made? The authors find that all modern methods have areas of strength and weakness. The assessment of which is the 'best' is subjective and depends on the performance of the method, the type of problem (criminal work or paternity), the database size and availability of computing software and support. The authors preferred the highest posterior density approach for performance, however the other methods all have areas where their performance is adequate. For single-contributor stains normal approximation methods are suitable, also the bootstrap and the highest posterior density method. For multiple-contributor stains or other complex situations the match probability expressions become quite complex and it may not be possible to derive the necessary variance expressions. The highest posterior density or the bootstrap provide a better general method, with non-zero theta. The size-bias correction and the factor of 10 approaches may be considered acceptable by many forensic scientists as long as their limitations are understood.