Hate Crime: Record or Perception?

Public policing in Northern Ireland has gone through a process of reform and governance change in reaction to the peace process and the requirement to shift from a police force, largely engaged in conflict-centred policing, to a policing service dedicated to civil policing and normalisation. During the past decade, Northern Ireland has witnessed a significant decline in recorded sectarian crime. This decline in ethnic conflict has been accompanied by a growth in support for the police, especially within the Catholic community. However, information pertaining to support for public policing is determined at national level and we know little about how residents of sites of previously high levels of political and sectarian conflict feel about policing reform and delivery. In this paper we show that the perception of sectarian crime is much greater than recorded sectarian crime. Moreover, the perception of sectarian crime is a significant predictor of negative attitudes regarding police performance. The paper offers a unique quantitative insight into perceptions of sectarian crime and posits a predicament that is not discussed or debated with regard to the delivery of community policing. The evidence presented offers a benchmark upon which such a debate could occur. We argue that knowledge of sectarian hate crime should not be centred at the national level, but at the more discrete scale of neighbourhood. Perceptions, whether linked to reality, signal or prejudice, can at times destabilise the peace-building process, yet are rarely attended to or discussed. Knowing the difference between recorded and perceived crime as either sectarian exaggeration or actuality would aid localised police-community interaction. Here we provide a statistical basis to stimulate such enquiry.     

Chinese interest in Nigeria's oil and the American context

Nigeria is an emerging strategic partner of China. This may at first glance appear to have some important implications for the United States, which has long seen Nigeria as a significant player in the region and has often cast Nigeria as an ally of some import on the continent. However, when examining Sino–Nigerian ties in the context of the United States, the hyperbole about China's role needs to be tamed. Washington, DC does not seem overly concerned by China's rising influence in the country. Though US ties with Abuja are robust, its economic interest in Nigeria is declining and is not threatened by Chinese activities.     

Terms of trade and class conflict in a computable general equilibrium model for Mexico

A computable general equilibrium model for Mexico is constructed in which class conflict over the distribution of the surplus is the principal determinant of the terms of trade. The model consists of seven social classes and eight productive sectors. Classes are distinguished as ‘fundamental’ or ‘subsumed’ according to whether their incomes are primarily determined by conscious class struggle or by the resulting system of relative prices. Flexible prices are assumed to clear markets for which non‐produced means of production, such as agricultural land, limit supply while output in the remaining sectors is determined by the level of effective demand. For the latter sectors, two theories of price formation are compared and are seen to differ radically in their implicit conception of the nature of class conflict. A ‘Keynes‐Kalecki’ closure is considered in which prices are determined by a fixed mark‐up on costs. This enables capitalists to protect themselves from incursions on the rate of profit due to labour militancy or state‐imposed terms‐of‐trade policy designed to favour peasants andlor the agrarian bourgeoisie. A second, ‘Marx‐Sraffian’ price closure constrains the economy to a wage‐profit‐terms‐of‐trade surface; where the economy conjuncturally resides on this surface depends upon the level of effective demand, wages and terms‐of‐trade policy. Various policy scenarios are investigated under both closures.